40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6 Author Share Posted September 6 19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Saw JB's Euro seasonal post and it makes no sense IMO. I don't see why you'd basically have a nationwide torch in a weak Nina following a moderate Nino, there really is no track record of that ever happening. If want to go purely off the ENSO you'd say 54-55 83-84 92-93 16-17 seem to be the closest matches of weak Nina following Mod or greater Nino. None of those were nationwide torches at all. I guess the problem is 2 were in a +PDO ERA. 16-17 is the only thing remotely close to that Euro seasonal US temp anomaly forecast and even the west was way colder. I don't think it will be a nationwide torch....I think JB is probably doing what the Pats are doing....just punting on the season...he probably figured its a good opportunity to try to repair his image and just go full throttle warmth. Assuming we don't have a big +WPO aain, which I doubt...no reason Canada and the entirety of the northern tier US should roast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 I did see the 2M temp anomalies from the euro and it was a torch. That's why I asked what the 500 mean anomalies were like from the seasonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I did see the 2M temp anomalies from the euro and it was a torch. That's why I asked what the 500 mean anomalies were like from the seasonal. This https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_z500?area=GLOB&base_time=202405010000&stats=tsum&valid_time=202406010000 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6 Author Share Posted September 6 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I did see the 2M temp anomalies from the euro and it was a torch. That's why I asked what the 500 mean anomalies were like from the seasonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6 Author Share Posted September 6 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6 Author Share Posted September 6 Looks like the polar domain is servicable for December and into perhaps part of January and then goes to crap....this aligns with my thinking, but I also think we may try to get blocky late again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 Antarctica is looking good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 Euro is disgusting. Some poleward dateline ridging, but a raging SE ridge. Good God. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 I can't tell what the forecast is for each month. Maybe as Ray said, serviceable December and first half January before we engage in Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6 Author Share Posted September 6 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Euro is disgusting. Some poleward dateline ridging, but a raging SE ridge. Good God. I think February kills DJF....I don't think December into perhaps a bit of January will be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6 Author Share Posted September 6 Hopefully it goes to shit when the wife goes into labor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6 Author Share Posted September 6 I wish it could be viewed monthly like the CFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 FYI 17 hours ago, WxUSAF said: New euro seasonal is ugly but Webb ain’t buying jt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 Whole new SST look though vs analog years from the 70s. I'm not sure about that argument about a -NAO but could buy poleward ridge. Again, need to see monthly looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6 Author Share Posted September 6 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Whole new SST look though vs analog years from the 70s. I'm not sure about that argument about a -NAO but could buy poleward ridge. Again, need to see monthly looks. I don't think it will be as bad as the EURO...probably a compromise between that and the CFS/CANSIPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think it will be as bad as the EURO...probably a compromise between that and the CFS/CANSIPS Usually with a poleward ridge like that, it’s colder into the central US too so it’s a little weird looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6 Author Share Posted September 6 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Usually with a poleward ridge like that, it’s colder into the central US too so it’s a little weird looking. I think the EURO, like a lot of seasonal guidance, ran astray last year because it defaulted too heavily to stock ENSO...we may be seeing that somehwat heare. Probably not to the same degree given the background state right now, but I think we are going to start see that shift a bit moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 November looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Whole new SST look though vs analog years from the 70s. I'm not sure about that argument about a -NAO but could buy poleward ridge. Again, need to see monthly looks. What I've learned through my mass making of composites the past few years is the analog approach just isn't going to work anymore. The more and more I looked into things, the clearer it became there was a tremendous shift in the influences of ENSO on the global regime. So I've decided to start from scratch with composites. It's also become clear the traditional ONI may not be the best method for defining ENSO anymore, the RONI seems to be a better fit, however, I am also closely beginning to look into the SOI and then want to look into the MEI. I had previous constructed composites and breaking down ENSO into strength based on the ENS-ONI and ONI then I had started to incorporate the RONI, however, it started to become clear that oceanic aspect alone may not be enough to define strength (thus the importance of SOI/MEI). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: November looks good so do the Mets, but doesn't mean they'll deliver 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Antarctica is looking good. Chase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 what sucks to me is how everything gets adjusted to the current climatological period. At least with the ONI, a new method was created so ONI values from previous decades are compared to the climatological period reflective for that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 Would love to see a big Nov or Dec ice storm before the JFM torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 I'm just sick of these EL Nino and La Nina's. We need a several year quiet period where the ocean is just neutral. For whatever reason, we're in a regime where winter conditions are shorter than they used to be and I'm kind of using the metric of growing season here. When we're dealing with these ENSO events where either the front end or back end is "favored" we're further reducing our chances. There needs to be a substantial global shakeup. -NAO's, blocking are all great but we have had horrific luck getting them to actually coincide with a storm potential or the blocking is overly strong and screws us that way. Who knows...maybe with what is going on with the African/Indian monsoon season and the anomalously north shifted ITCZ will be a driver in the shakeup. But if we get deep into the fall and especially past the solstice and the global regime is crap that will not bode well. I don't care what D10 EPS colors show 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6 Author Share Posted September 6 1 hour ago, yoda said: FYI He called it an east-based La Nina...that should prompt @snowman19to burn one or two of his 5PPD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 4 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Saw JB's Euro seasonal post and it makes no sense IMO. I don't see why you'd basically have a nationwide torch in a weak Nina following a moderate Nino, there really is no track record of that ever happening. If want to go purely off the ENSO you'd say 54-55 83-84 92-93 16-17 seem to be the closest matches of weak Nina following Mod or greater Nino. None of those were nationwide torches at all. I guess the problem is 2 were in a +PDO ERA. 16-17 is the only thing remotely close to that Euro seasonal US temp anomaly forecast and even the west was way colder. This (Nov-Mar actually) is a nationwide torch? 1. Only torch is in S corridor like where I am (yippee lol although so I’ve been expecting it). 2. The NE is only ~+2, which is only modestly AN. Also, that would be ~3 colder than last winter. Midwest is NN, much colder than last winter. 3. He’s already doing his typical “monkey-wrenching” when he doesn’t go cold to keep his customers interested. For example, he’s already emphasizing cold Dec as well as things that can go “wrong” with his forecast. So, take the emphasis off the +2 and place it on a BN Dec. while also leaving the door wide open in clients’ minds of a colder revision. 4. His warmest initial forecast (+3 in NYC for example) of last 10 years was in 2020-1. But in Nov, that was revised significantly colder to NN. All of these years’ maps are on the internet via googling. That’s how I know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He called it an east-based La Nina...that should prompt @snowman19to burn one or two of his 5PPD. Webb completely blew last winter and the winter before. And he was arrogant, nasty and condescending as hell about it. All of the research papers he posted last winter didn’t help his monumental bust on February and March. He was so sure of it too. Absolutely confident in a huge Feb and Mar and was mocking everyone who doubted him like they were stupid. Back in 2022, he completely blew December. Guaranteed a historic I-95 KU, quoted study after study proving how right he was going to be. Then he went on to blow January when he was sure a +TNH pattern was going to set up. He never humbles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 19 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Webb completely blew last winter and the winter before. And he was arrogant, nasty and condescending as hell about it. All of the research papers he posted last winter didn’t help his monumental bust on February and March. He was so sure of it too. Absolutely confident in a huge Feb and Mar and was mocking everyone who doubted him like they were stupid. Back in 2022, he completely blew December. Guaranteed a historic I-95 KU, quoted study after study proving how right he was going to be. Then he went on to blow January when he was sure a +TNH pattern was going to set up. He never humbles I don't have respect for him at all. Just another long range clown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like December has the most favorable NAO on the EURO...slightly negative..January around neutral and then a toaster bath for Feb. PNA is also servicable in December before tanking. Ray, maybe a page or so back, didn't you mention December looks good, "January" looks ugly, Feb-Mar look great after reloading? Unless new data your seeing vs a few weeks ago? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 The Euro seasonal makes no sense (at least what I see on weatherbell). It's just a broadbrushed map almost like cpc. The coldest spot in the entire country for DJF is the west coast with an "average" winter and the warmest spot is in the southwest with +2-2.5C. The east coast is +1-1.5C and the southern Great Lakes +1.5-2.0C. Not exactly a blowtorch. The cansips and cfs with much colder to the north and warmer to the south would certainly make more sense in a Nina. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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