40/70 Benchmark Posted July 16 Author Share Posted July 16 12 hours ago, cleetussnow said: Thats what we said last year. Well, last season was worse than the previous year.....I will bet anyone on this board $500 that Boston sees more snow than they did last season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 16 Author Share Posted July 16 2 hours ago, George001 said: The past 2 winters we had a borderline super Nino and a modoki moderate Nina. Last year in particular looked shot months before winter started. A potent east based Nino is the absolute worst possible ENSO configuration in New England. 2nd worst is a potent modoki Nina. With a weaker ENSO this year the other factors will hold more weight, people on these weather forms see Nina and panic but it’s really not justified in New England. You were right for the wrong reason, though. The only way you are going to become a more seasoned amateur is to acknowledge that and examine why. If you are more focused on guessing the correct numbers on a spread sheet than you are understanding why the hemisphere evolved in the manner that you did, then you aren't going to learn as much. Its like a complex math equation.....when you solve an algebra equation or calculus problem, they are more concerned with seeing how you are arrived at your solution than the actual solution itself because it is this that demonstrates an understanding of the logic and processess at play. I had to accept this back in 2015, when everyone thought I nailed that mega winter....on paper it looked accurate, but I was expecting a huge -NAO and that was all Pacific driven. In order to grow, you need to stop milking your prostate to the end game numbers and focus more on how the atmosphere arrived at said figures. You have come a long way these past few years, but what I have just laid out is the key to the next level. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 16 Author Share Posted July 16 As far as the Modoki Nina the previous year, most guidance had it as basine-wide, but it shifted west very quickly early on in the season. If you sa that coming, then kudos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 I think most places are close to climo normal snow this upcoming season. We'll have highs and lows but in the end a normal winter which we haven't seen in years. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 On 7/16/2024 at 7:37 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: You were right for the wrong reason, though. The only way you are going to become a more seasoned amateur is to acknowledge that and examine why. If you are more focused on guessing the correct numbers on a spread sheet than you are understanding why the hemisphere evolved in the manner that you did, then you aren't going to learn as much. Its like a complex math equation.....when you solve an algebra equation or calculus problem, they are more concerned with seeing how you are arrived at your solution than the actual solution itself because it is this that demonstrates an understanding of the logic and processess at play. I had to accept this back in 2015, when everyone thought I nailed that mega winter....on paper it looked accurate, but I was expecting a huge -NAO and that was all Pacific driven. In order to grow, you need to stop milking your prostate to the end game numbers and focus more on how the atmosphere arrived at said figures. You have come a long way these past few years, but what I have just laid out is the key to the next level. Yeah, I didn’t expect the pacific to suck the entire winter. I suspect my miss on the pacific in Feb and Mar is related to the whole right for the wrong reasons thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 17 Author Share Posted July 17 46 minutes ago, George001 said: Yeah, I didn’t expect the pacific to suck the entire winter. I suspect my miss on the pacific in Feb and Mar is related to the whole right for the wrong reasons thing. Yes. The reason last season sucked isn't because it was a super-east based el Nino, although the sensible weather result for us was similar, but rather it sucked because the moderate El Nino was vying for proxy with a very hostile extra tropical Pacific and essentially lost. The only real manifestation of El Nino was the active STJ and very wet pattern, but we ended up with that overlayed onto a healthy modoki La Nina type of pattern. This was a more extreme version of what happened in 2018-2019...but that season wasn't as mild and snowless because the Pacific wasn't quite as awful. This is why having a weaker ENSO even isn't neceassarily great news....yes, it means that ENSO won't be so overwhelming that it floods the CONUS with warm air, however, it also means that you are ultimately at the mercy of extra tropical forces, which may or may not be very hostile/favorable. I am willing to bet a more potent el Nino last season would have yieled a better result for us because it would have meant that the Pacific was not as prominent a driver. The forcing for the El Nino was in great spot, which is what led me astray....but it just didn't matter because the MC was driving the bus. This is why incorporating sensible weather into an outlook can help tip you off to issues like that...its like "ground confirmation" for how the forecaster expects the henisphere to play out given the factors at hand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 23 Author Share Posted July 23 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Quick update on the developing La Niña. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/07/enso-proving-deceptive-once-again.html 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Bump - checking whats the latest thinking on Winter. Nothing on the GFS 364 maps just yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 On 8/9/2024 at 11:48 AM, cleetussnow said: Bump - checking whats the latest thinking on Winter. Nothing on the GFS 364 maps just yet. Yeah, but the 384 tells the whole story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 12 Author Share Posted August 12 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Here is my preliminary work on the polar domain, which lines up exceedingly and uncannily well with Chuck's NAO formula currently, which was gratifying given its past success. NOTE: THIS IS NOT A WINTER FORECAST COMPOSITE....it's just for the polar domain, so no need to point out years like 2016, which featured a +PDO....that will not be viewed as an extra tropical Pacific analog. The focus for this is the AO/NAO domain. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/08/preliminary-analysis-of-polar-domain.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 +4 to +8 DJF early call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 There’s a pretty big difference between +4 and +8 at any given location. That’s as bad as a Farmer’s Almanac forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 8 hours ago, qg_omega said: +4 to +8 DJF early call Lolol... Starting early I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 9 hours ago, roardog said: There’s a pretty big difference between +4 and +8 at any given location. That’s as bad as a Farmer’s Almanac forecast. Especially in winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 22 hours ago, qg_omega said: +4 to +8 DJF early call Eventually it'll happen. March 2012(?) was something like a raging +10 to +15 above average. Doing that at a whole month's chunk of time is nothing shy of extraordinary - an achievement that I've always felt was way ...waaay under recognized, let alone even much talked about why? because +12 F in March does not appeal to any pain sensory in the common everyday experience enough to warrant a head's up. That's the biggest problem with CC and GW and AGW and whatever abbreviation of the moment suffices, is that it doesn't actually appeal to anyone's common experience - or never used to... Yeah, people are dying in swelter more frequently now, and along with other specters and popularizing dystopian headline attention grabbing is beginning ( finally! ) to appeal somewhat. People need punches in the noses leaving their house, with a burning bush and voice from the heavens claiming responsibility for the pain before they'll admit their about to die - Making America great again is impossible when there is no world within which to actually have an America - this will forever escape anyone's connective intelligence until they start to feel pain. Anyway, if March 2012 can do it... it's not a huge leap to back date that achievement to include Feb ... hell, it was 80 in Feb twice during the last 7 years, and 70+ in half of 'em as it is. Trade those weird week events for an aggregate there you go. ( the preceding is frustrated dark humor along with some seriousness ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19 Author Share Posted August 19 CFS actually looks decent for winter IMO, but not that this means anything. I know last year it was heavily biased towards a stock El Nino regime, which was far too optimistic for us....this year FWIW, it looks like a favorable La Nina to me. December is the worst month, but it still looks good for at least the northern half of New England, as that PV is elongated to the southeast...kind of looks like 12/2007. By January, its evident that more poleward Aleutian ridging is causing everything to press SE so its a colder look. February the progresson continues..... The by March the pattern backs off a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19 Author Share Posted August 19 Save the sarcasm, as I'm just commenting on what I see...not implying this will verify. That said, sooner or latter we are going to have to catch a break and I think if we were to this season, then it would look a lot like that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19 Author Share Posted August 19 It also looks like the cold dumps west in December due to a stout RNA, which gives way to more PNA as the season progresses...that is something I have noted in some of the analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It also looks like the cold dumps west in December due to a stout RNA, which gives way to more PNA as the season progresses...that is something I have noted in some of the analogs. December could go either way. I know Dec 07 also had a big H5 anomaly even into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19 Author Share Posted August 19 Just now, CoastalWx said: December could go either way. I know Dec 07 also had a big H5 anomaly even into New England. Yep...that is my interpretation of that....but the point being its not a slam-dunk skunk as it may appear to some at first glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yep...that is my interpretation of that....but the point being its not a slam-dunk skunk as it may appear to some at first glance. I looked at the CFS today just before you posted that lol. A little too close to a torch for my liking on the CFS, but I get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19 Author Share Posted August 19 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I looked at the CFS today just before you posted that lol. A little too close to a torch for my liking on the CFS, but I get it. That is how it is going to be even if we do well this season....it won't look like 1995 at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is how it is going to be even if we do well this season....it won't look like 1995 at H5. You mean we aren't getting a 95/15 composite? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 I'd take a monster +NAO with -EPO and hope for a 93/94 esque pattern for Dec 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19 Author Share Posted August 19 16 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: I'd take a monster +NAO with -EPO and hope for a 93/94 esque pattern for Dec December 1993 got going late, though..started right after Xmas. 2007 is my favorite December of all time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: December 1993 got going late, though..started right after Xmas. 2007 is my favorite December of all time. Agreed, Dec 07 is my favorite of all time too .. 12/14/07 and 12/16/07 with an inch or two of fluff on 12/15 .. what a 3 day period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 I think Dec 08 tops it for me, but Dec 07 a close second. Dec 95 right there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I think Dec 08 tops it for me, but Dec 07 a close second. Dec 95 right there too. What about Dec 91? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What Dec 91? You mean 92? Nope lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You mean 92? Nope lol. Whoops yes ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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