rclab Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 On 6/11/2024 at 5:35 PM, Typhoon Tip said: In 500 million years the sun will be shining 10% hotter than it is now ... soon after to begin consuming helium instead of hydrogen and expanding. In 2 billion years it will almost entirely be consuming helium and will have expanded half way to the orbit of Mercury ... at which time the earth's atmosphere and ocean will be getting removed ... as the power of irradiance and solar wind mechanics will overpower the magnetic field of the Earth. By 5 billion years, the sun will have swollen to engulf the orbit of Venus. The sunrise and sunset will occupy the entire eastern and western horizons, shining over a cinder planet cooked to the brink of melted rock. Not long after that ... the sun's out layers will briefly ( in cosmic time scales ) swell to also envelop the Earth... if the Earth survives the million years of electromagnetic bath, it will end up eternally trapped in orbit around a dead white dwarf star - with no history that life ever existed on this world. It's also possible that the Earth will have disintegrated altogether. Good morning Tip. Sobering, even with the time frames involved. The near future, though uncertain, I pray doesn’t include a last post photo from the postage stamp, of my vintage mercury thermometer. As always …. (photo credit: Twilight Zone episode, Midnight Sun) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 13 Author Share Posted June 13 11 minutes ago, rclab said: Good morning Tip. Sobering, even with the time frames involved. The near future, though uncertain, I pray doesn’t include a last post photo from the postage stamp, of my vintage mercury thermometer. As always …. (photo credit: Twilight Zone episode, Midnight Sun) Good episode...love TWZ. I am camped out watching that every NYE and NYD. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 Good morning Tip. Sobering, even with the time frames involved. The near future, though uncertain, I pray doesn’t include a last post photo from the postage stamp, of my vintage mercury thermometer. As always …. (photo credit: Twilight Zone episode, Midnight Sun) That Twilight Zone episode came to mind when reading the discussionSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 2 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said: That Twilight Zone episode came to mind when reading the discussion Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk This Outer Limits episode came to mind.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 The jet stream has really lifted north this year, and the last few years. That doesn't mean we can't get a cold Winter.. Kansas City hit a windchill of -35F in January for the Chiefs playoff game, so you can get cold bursts, but the percentages and overall, start shifting heavily in the direction of warm when you see things so far north, early in the season and at this time of year.. Since we are going to have one of the warmest December-June's on record in the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS, I made a list of 19 best analog matches since 1948, and found actually a strong correlation for next Winter's temperatures: Dec-Jun analogs: https://ibb.co/gZkPmqk Following Dec-Feb (scale is almost the same! for 19/75 years.. one I picked and chose from, the other was a +12 month roll forward! (~20% of total years included)). https://ibb.co/YR3kwmm I made the primary factor broad-CONUS based above or below average temperatures, so if there was a strong opposite anomaly somewhere in the country, I didn't use that year. https://ibb.co/j5qjkJV [Years were (+): 1948, 52, 90, 97, 98, 99, 2001, 05, 11, 15, 16, 19, 22. (-) years: 1970, 77, 78, 81, 83, 92.] 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 The jet stream has really lifted north this year, and the last few years. That doesn't mean we can't get a cold Winter.. Kansas City hit a windchill of -35F in January for the Chiefs playoff game, so you can get cold bursts, but the percentages and overall, start shifting heavily in the direction of warm when you see things so far north, early in the season and at this time of year.. Since we are going to have one of the warmest December-June's on record in the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS, I made a list of 19 best analog matches since 1948, and found actually a strong correlation for next Winter's temperatures: Dec-Jun analogs: https://ibb.co/gZkPmqk Following Dec-Feb (scale is almost the same! for 19/75 years.. one I picked and chose from, the other was a +12 month roll forward! (~20% of total years included)). https://ibb.co/YR3kwmm I made the primary factor broad-CONUS based above or below average temperatures, so if there was a strong opposite anomaly somewhere in the country, I didn't use that year. https://ibb.co/j5qjkJV [Years were (+): 1948, 52, 90, 97, 98, 99, 2001, 05, 11, 15, 16, 19, 22. (-) years: 1970, 77, 78, 81, 83, 92.]Aka no snow this yearSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 2 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said: Aka no snow this year Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk The chances are definitely higher for that outcome. La Nina's aren't so bad for you guys.. there is a near "0" correlation with temps, going back to 1948, using that variable alone. -PDO's are what's bad as it has near a +0.3 correlation with warmer temps. Solar Max correlates with +NAO, which is a warmer pattern, too, although that connection is not exact. If we go +QBO, that coupled with La Nina enhances +AO conditions, making that a bad pattern for you, vs La Nina's that can be a good pattern, when not coupled with +QBO. The roll forward research is showing a pretty strong signal though. It's not surprising because there is more of a "flat global jet, lifted north" right now, so you would think the same kind of thing would continue, with no major fluctuations occurring in the pattern lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 19 Author Share Posted June 19 17 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The jet stream has really lifted north this year, and the last few years. That doesn't mean we can't get a cold Winter.. Kansas City hit a windchill of -35F in January for the Chiefs playoff game, so you can get cold bursts, but the percentages and overall, start shifting heavily in the direction of warm when you see things so far north, early in the season and at this time of year.. Since we are going to have one of the warmest December-June's on record in the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS, I made a list of 19 best analog matches since 1948, and found actually a strong correlation for next Winter's temperatures: Dec-Jun analogs: https://ibb.co/gZkPmqk Following Dec-Feb (scale is almost the same! for 19/75 years.. one I picked and chose from, the other was a +12 month roll forward! (~20% of total years included)). https://ibb.co/YR3kwmm I made the primary factor broad-CONUS based above or below average temperatures, so if there was a strong opposite anomaly somewhere in the country, I didn't use that year. https://ibb.co/j5qjkJV [Years were (+): 1948, 52, 90, 97, 98, 99, 2001, 05, 11, 15, 16, 19, 22. (-) years: 1970, 77, 78, 81, 83, 92.] A lot of those seasons weren't awful for snowfall in SNE...but year, should be warm (shock)... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 24 Author Share Posted June 24 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Quick ENSO update and some early musings on where we may be headed this winter. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/06/moderate-impact-la-nina-remains-likely.html 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sweet. Another non-winter on tap. I’m beginning to forget what a real winter looks like at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Sweet. Another non-winter on tap. I’m beginning to forget what a real winter looks like at this point. I hope your wrong, but we have a ways to go, things can still change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Ray Happy Summer, thanks for the updates, however, I feel its still early, I hope things change as we get close to "Go Time". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 25 Author Share Posted June 25 On 6/24/2024 at 8:25 PM, NorEastermass128 said: Sweet. Another non-winter on tap. I’m beginning to forget what a real winter looks like at this point. I wouldn't say that yet...the mean doesn't look pretty, but we may have a window or two. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Interesting... weak Nina ftw long term?Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 27 Author Share Posted June 27 15 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said: Interesting... weak Nina ftw long term? Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk I don't really think that it matters, as the hemisphere has been so locked into cool ENSO mode over the course of the last several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 On 6/24/2024 at 9:18 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wouldn't say that yet...the mean doesn't look pretty, but we may have a window or two. Oh…that’s reassuring. Have pins and needles full of anticipation. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 Will I see snow this winter ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 18 hours ago, MJO812 said: Will I see snow this winter ? If you're one of the few left without a frost free freezer, yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 I’m on board for a good winter from NYC north based on the recent trends in guidance. I was pessimistic a couple months ago, but things have changed. There are still some red flags, but I’ll gladly roll the dice with a weak east based or basin wide Nina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 5 Author Share Posted July 5 20 hours ago, George001 said: I’m on board for a good winter from NYC north based on the recent trends in guidance. I was pessimistic a couple months ago, but things have changed. There are still some red flags, but I’ll gladly roll the dice with a weak east based or basin wide Nina. I think we would do okay in this...that looks servicable enough to provide chances with the with the lower heights in Canada and the PV elongated in the general direction of the northeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 21 hours ago, George001 said: I’m on board for a good winter from NYC north based on the recent trends in guidance. I was pessimistic a couple months ago, but things have changed. There are still some red flags, but I’ll gladly roll the dice with a weak east based or basin wide Nina. Miller Bs SNE will do well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 On 7/5/2024 at 12:23 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think we would do okay in this...that looks servicable enough to provide chances with the with the lower heights in Canada and the PV elongated in the general direction of the northeast. the thing with Nina is that you can have that Aleutian ridge break more poleward and give us legit cold air into Canada. Ninos have no such benefit if we do end up with a more east based event, I’ll be a lot more optimistic, as at least we could see the ridging move over AK. as of now, I’m still expecting a pretty lame winter from NYC south. Ninas can be quite fun for you guys, though. especially up by you 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 6 Author Share Posted July 6 3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: the thing with Nina is that you can have that Aleutian ridge break more poleward and give us legit cold air into Canada. Ninos have no such benefit if we do end up with a more east based event, I’ll be a lot more optimistic, as at least we could see the ridging move over AK. as of now, I’m still expecting a pretty lame winter from NYC south. Ninas can be quite fun for you guys, though. especially up by you Yea, east-based events tend to have more poleward Aleutian ridging....but even without that, you can still do okay if things break right. 2007-2008 had a pretty flat ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Warm, wet, and a couple of slop storms. We all know it's true. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 We roast 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 15 hours ago, qg_omega said: We roast Buds in February ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Buds in February ? Maybe I should plant orange trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: Guess he didn’t read pgs 24-36? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: Whatever that guy says, the opposite will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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