Winter 2024-2025 DISC

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah you got buried on that follow up storm.

Yea, naked cf twister. I had 21" between the two events...10" from the first and 11" in the follow up.

[tamarack]

55 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

December 2007 was one of my better months of December....right up there with 1995, 2008 and 1970.

2007 was our snowiest December and February 2008 was only 0.4" behind 2017 for tops. (noted on the sig)

[Deck Pic]

My top analogs for 2024-2025.  Mixed bag for DC.  I think Boston did pretty well during these winters.  Good luck guys.  

36-37, 79-80, 88-89, 01-02, 11-12

[Deck Pic]

On 10/15/2024 at 10:37 AM, CoastalWx said:

That was big here too. Very similar to 07 like you said. I need to check, but I think 08 just beat it out here.

I remember 07-08 up there. SWFE for days and days

I've been looking at specific Nov-Dec analogs, and I think I like Nov-Dec 1973 the best.  Pretty decent in DC.  Not sure how you all fared.

[tamarack]

8 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

My top analogs for 2024-2025.  Mixed bag for DC.  I think Boston did pretty well during these winters.  Good luck guys.  

36-37, 79-80, 88-89, 01-02, 11-12

Sarcasm?  Those 5 include Boston's 7th least snowy (88-89) and their 4 worst snow winters.  And 73-74 there had no measurable until Jan 3.  

[Typhoon Tip]

vastly warmer than normal winter with one or two short duration cold incursions

not shocked if your local climate sites are +4+ every month 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My final ENSO update...last blog from me until Outlook release roughly 11/11.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/10/weakening-trend-of-enso-guidance.html

 

[qg_omega]

18 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

vastly warmer than normal winter with one or two short duration cold incursions

not shocked if your local climate sites are +4+ every month 

You can copy and paste that every year ever be set

[J Paul Gordon]

Glad to catch the positive vibes and joy here. 

[DavisStraight]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

You can copy and paste that every year ever be set

You would have been spot on last 3-4 winters but eventually that will change. I'm with the Wolf on this, eventually we'll get another good winter, probably when we don't expect it.

[J Paul Gordon]

We still have the rest of October and all of November before we even get to the start of climatological winter. Calling (or inferring) 24-25 is already a bust is pretty far out on a limb. Let's wait til February for that. There are lots of good chances for snow and at least short-term (as in weeklong) cold snaps, even if interrupted by warmth.

[cleetussnow]

This winter sucks already.

[MJO812]

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1848506703542948155?t=yKnUAfpu7hvNuFwibnBbjA&s=19

[powderfreak]

On 10/19/2024 at 9:03 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

vastly warmer than normal winter with one or two short duration cold incursions

not shocked if your local climate sites are +4+ every month 

I mean that’s been no problem lately.  We can do that easily with the lack of radiational cooling in recent winters.

[powderfreak]

On 10/20/2024 at 5:56 PM, DavisStraight said:

You would have been spot on last 3-4 winters but eventually that will change. I'm with the Wolf on this, eventually we'll get another good winter, probably when we don't expect it.

Luckily we can still get good snow up here in +4ish temps.  It’s when we start pushing the +6 to +8 up here that things get bleak in a hurry.

Of course the margin for error with positive departures decreases as one heads south… with almost no margin of error by the time you’re in NYC and south latitudes.

[cleetussnow]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I mean that’s been no problem lately.  We can do that easily with the lack of radiational cooling in recent winters.

Right just feedback loop yourself right out of a winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I mean that’s been no problem lately.  We can do that easily with the lack of radiational cooling in recent winters.

 

13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Luckily we can still get good snow up here in +4ish temps.  It’s when we start pushing the +6 to +8 up here that things get bleak in a hurry.

Of course the margin for error with positive departures decreases as one heads south… with almost no margin of error by the time you’re in NYC and south latitudes.

Yea, this is why I am not as concerend about snowfall plummeting due to CC as some others....the vast majority of the warming manifests during times of RAD cooling, when it is less impactful on snowfall. Obviously it is having some impact and will eventually have more impact due to the warming oceans, etc, but I don't think we are going to see this doomsday scenario where mean annual snowfall nosedives....at least not at this latitude during our lifetimes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think the much more palpable impact for us is the greater dichotomy between the favorable and unfavorable regimes.....we have seen that over the course of the past decade and that should continue. The warmer oceans are going to allow us to avail of ample moisture when we get stuck in one of these favorable regimes, like 2014-2015 and to a lesser extent March 2018, but we no longer have the margin for error to get away with a hostile mutltidecadal Pacific cycle, as we have seen the past several years.

I expect the time around the turn of the decade to be another bonanza, but hopefully we can at least get back to respectability in the mean time.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Luckily we can still get good snow up here in +4ish temps.  It’s when we start pushing the +6 to +8 up here that things get bleak in a hurry.

Of course the margin for error with positive departures decreases as one heads south… with almost no margin of error by the time you’re in NYC and south latitudes.

yeah was thinking about adding ... +4 isn't necessarily death knell n of nyc latitude.  more problematic down here than up there, of course. but even here, we can put up a warm month to that scale, and still couch a couple blue bombs for the course.

although, i'd caution snow hopefuls that our 'flop direction' is no longer negative like 20 whatever years ago. back in the day, a 'hole punch' modeled 850 mb thermal field ( pockets of -.5 in a sea of +1s), tended to verify snow and noodles after dynamical hammering.   as an aside on this, ... unclear if this is cc doing this - not making a statement there.  it could certainly be the modeling physical evolution is the culprit.  either way, we've observed that marginally modeled events are tending to end up more wet.   so, having said all that ... yeah, you don't count on our latitude 'as much' with +4. 

we're getting closer to nj climate and that's just something that we adults of our industry and passion are fully aware of and see the incontrovertible truth of it.  just sayn'

my methods are probably quite simple comparing other's opuses... lol.  that being heavily persistence reliant, + the whopper solar max and the rather robust warm polar indices/lag correlation on winter, + cc induced stronger than normal jet velocities/mid latitude balanced geostrophic wind potential causing the wave numbers to favor subtropical ordinance.

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah was thinking about adding ... +4 isn't necessarily death knell n of nyc latitude.  more problematic down here than up there, of course. but even here, we can put up a warm month to that scale, and still couch a couple blue bombs for the course.

although, i'd caution snow hopefuls that our 'flop direction' is no longer negative like 20 whatever years ago. back in the day, a 'hole punch' modeled 850 mb thermal field ( pockets of -.5 in a sea of +1s), tended to verify snow and noodles after dynamical hammering.   as an aside on this, ... unclear if this is cc doing this - not making a statement there.  it could certainly be the modeling physical evolution is the culprit.  either way, we've observed that marginally modeled events are tending to end up more wet.   so, having said all that ... yeah, you don't count on our latitude 'as much' with +4. 

we're getting closer to nj climate and that's just something that we adults of our industry and passion are fully aware of and see the incontrovertible truth of it.  just sayn'

my methods are probably quite simple comparing other's opuses... lol.  that being heavily persistence reliant, + the whopper solar max and the rather robust warm polar indices/lag correlation on winter, + cc induced stronger than normal jet velocities/mid latitude balanced geostrophic wind potential causing the wave numbers to favor subtropical ordinance.

I think its a blend...sure, some maybe CC, but I think more of that is a byproduct of the crap Pacific and just some poor luck, too.

[tamarack]

14 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Luckily we can still get good snow up here in +4ish temps.  It’s when we start pushing the +6 to +8 up here that things get bleak in a hurry.

Of course the margin for error with positive departures decreases as one heads south… with almost no margin of error by the time you’re in NYC and south latitudes.

The 2 most recent winters here (DJFM) ran 5° AN with all 4 months being AN in each.  However, the DJFM average, including those winters, is 21° so +5 retains a margin.  Sometimes that's enough, sometimes not, with 22-23 and 23-24 on the good side with 112% of average snow.  (And winters like 09-10, 11-12 and 15-16 definitely going the other way.)

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/19/2024 at 1:18 AM, Deck Pic said:

My top analogs for 2024-2025.  Mixed bag for DC.  I think Boston did pretty well during these winters.  Good luck guys.  

36-37, 79-80, 88-89, 01-02, 11-12

Awesome forecast, Dick pic

[SnoSki14]

On 10/20/2024 at 3:12 PM, qg_omega said:

You can copy and paste that every year ever be set

We've crossed the Rubicon and aren't going back. 

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Yea, this is why I am not as concerend about snowfall plummeting due to CC as some others....the vast majority of the warming manifests during times of RAD cooling, when it is less impactful on snowfall. Obviously it is having some impact and will eventually have more impact due to the warming oceans, etc, but I don't think we are going to see this doomsday scenario where mean annual snowfall nosedives....at least not at this latitude during our lifetimes.

Same here. Not worried about snowfall averages at all in the Great Lakes. More worried about retention. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Same here. Not worried about snowfall averages at all in the Great Lakes. More worried about retention. 

Especially for you....its more of an issue for me being closer to the ocean, but I also have a better shot at alienating my family and risking my marriage to track a unicorn.

[qg_omega]

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Same here. Not worried about snowfall averages at all in the Great Lakes. More worried about retention. 

You are king IMBY, congrats

[michsnowfreak]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Especially for you....its more of an issue for me being closer to the ocean, but I also have a better shot at alienating my family and risking my marriage to track a unicorn.

I've already seen some very mild winters have near or even above avg snowfall and when winters over the general public remarks how it was an easy winter (and it was). But when measurable snow chances encompass half the year, the possibilities are endless. And we still can get those more harsh winters where it's a true hard winter but the final snow total isn't eye popping. It's why I really like that severity index (can't think of the name off the top of my head). And yes there's no doubt that one of these years a snow bomb for the ages will bury the east. It's like a powder keg...as the winters continue to gold higher moisture, watch out when everything aligns.

[michsnowfreak]

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

You are king IMBY, congrats

Much to your disliking, most of New England will not be experiencing any drastic snowfall reductions either. 

[TheClimateChanger]

26 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Same here. Not worried about snowfall averages at all in the Great Lakes. More worried about retention. 

Good luck with your theory. I hope it works out for you, seriously. 

 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Good luck with your theory. I hope it works out for you, seriously. 

 

Fortunately I have no plans to move to Ohio