Winter 2024-2025 DISC

[George001]

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

I can address both questions:  Nothing.  ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.

Agree. I’m not putting any stock into what the polar vortex is doing one way or another until December.

[CoastalWx]

On 10/9/2024 at 12:37 PM, snowman19 said:

Judah Cohen:

 

 

 

 

Someone sent me an article about how the snow cover theory is bullshit (which we know already). 

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Someone sent me an article about how the snow cover theory is bullshit (which we know already). 

I’ve thought it was BS ever since the super El Niño back in 15-16. I’m sure you remember it well. Judah was predicting and hyping a very cold, arctic winter for the east because his index showed way above normal Siberian snowcover buildup in October. Even as ENSO 3.4 hit +3.1C at the end of November, he just kept chiving on and going with it 

[Typhoon Tip]

i don't see any major issues with his interpretation, which as delivered is blend of teleconnector understanding ... combined with daily mass field migrations - he's not clear if the latter is ensemble/blend or operational model version ( ggem, euro, gfs ) and that blend.  but in so far as what he has said, there's really only one nit pick that i can see.  it's this statement ( bold ) below:

"This general predicted pattern across North America is troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska forcing ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies across the interior of North America.  This pattern favors widespread normal to above normal across much of Canda and the United States (US) with normal to below normal temperatures limited to Southeastern Canada and the US East Coast. "

i can see a pathway to where he would be correct, but i don't see a means to determine the probability therein, to say 'favors' one way or the other.  it has to do with the abstraction of the time of year/climatology of geometric wave dispersal across the hemisphere.  ..say that fast.. i just mean that the wave lengths are still not really in the winter 'stretch' mode, to where teleconnectors are in their highest pattern correlative value.  in the nebular heights of summer .. a +pna does not nearly mean the same spatial resolution as it does in gradient saturated l/w anchored nadir of late January and so on..  such that with shortened wave lengths there's time/space to buckle and well ...we've been seeing this tucking/folder over trough repeating since mid september - sort of 'cheating' us into thinking season's canonically behaved, when we're really just created a cold puddle hole in an otherwise toasty hemisphere ( relative to climate ). 

that said, the -EPO onset with correlated -PNA undergirding, favors a height drop over 110+ w across the mid lat continent.  that couples with rising heights ( again ... in the canonical sense ) over eastern mid latitudes.  but again, that doesn't mean we can't 'tuck' - it's not clear that he's thinking about that nuanced occurrence or not. 

frankly, if it were up to me and my druthers... we'd balm the f out until thanks giggedy

[George001]

It’s interesting how disgusted the mid Atlantic posters are about the thought of a 2007-2008 winter redux. I say bring it on, often when they rain we snow. That’s exactly how it went down that year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

It’s interesting how disgusted the mid Atlantic posters are about the thought of a 2007-2008 winter redux. I say bring it on, often when they rain we snow. That’s exactly how it went down that year.

I'd give my left nut for a redux of that season.

[MJO812]

6 hours ago, George001 said:

It’s interesting how disgusted the mid Atlantic posters are about the thought of a 2007-2008 winter redux. I say bring it on, often when they rain we snow. That’s exactly how it went down that year.

That winter was terrible here

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

That winter was terrible here

As far as snow, it was one of the worst in 30 years for the NYC metro area. Epically bad. November had nothing. December had 2 minor events both washed away by rain. January had a trace. February had a minor event early that month, washed away by very heavy rain, 2/22 had 6 inches of wet, slushy snow, which was the biggest event of the entire winter, then a very minor event the last day of the month and that was it, winter was over. Nothing in March. Nothing in April. 97-98, 01-02, 07-08, 11-12, 19-20, 22-23….the 6 worst winters since 1994

[cleetussnow]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

That winter was terrible here

At least you could drive a reasonable distance to get to the snow.  I would hit the road for something big. I’m also hoping for a snow chase scenario in Buffalo or tug esp. if they get a big time early season hit.  I got some flexibility with my job for awhile at least so its’s on this year.  

[MJO812]

Joe Bastardi

[Snowcrazed71]

On 10/12/2024 at 3:19 PM, MJO812 said:

Joe Bastardi

This guy is too much. Talk about telling you what you want to hear LOL. Well he has to get it right one of these years. 

I just read an article yesterday that they are now expecting a lower chance of a La Nina this year than they originally anticipated. Now that would be something good for us in the Northeast. I'd rather it be a La Nada. 

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

This guy is too much. Talk about telling you what you want to hear LOL. Well he has to get it right one of these years. 

I'm Hi Jennifer, I just read an article yesterday that they are now expecting a lower chance of a La Nina this year than they originally anticipated. Now that would be something good for us in the Northeast. I'd rather it be a La Nada. 

Get ready for a snowy winter if he is still forecasting this.

[Allsnow]

On 10/8/2024 at 8:15 PM, qg_omega said:

Looks to start off record warm

 

[qg_omega]

5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

Yup 

[qg_omega]

Models going torch to start November

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Models going torch to start November

Good news for winter then 

[George001]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Good news for winter then 

It would not be good for winter (often what happens in November is a sign of things to come) but I would take what the models are saying about November with a grain of salt. Too far away

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Models going torch to start November

Good

[michsnowfreak]

On 10/12/2024 at 5:24 AM, MJO812 said:

That winter was terrible here

2007-08 was such a banner winter in the Great Lakes...I knew it wasn't as good to our south, but I didn't realize it was that extreme until more recently. 

[michsnowfreak]

16 hours ago, George001 said:

It would not be good for winter (often what happens in November is a sign of things to come) but I would take what the models are saying about November with a grain of salt. Too far away

There is a centuries old saying "what happens in November the winter will remember", so I think that's where that idea generally comes from. I cannot speak for the Northeast, but I'm sure it's similar to here in that there's no definitive correlation between November and the winter. In fact, in more recent years, it's been more the opposite. 8 of the past 12 Novembers here have been colder than avg. But again, don't want to get too carried away with that either. Bottom line...Novembers weather does not excite or worry me in terms of how/if it will continue into winter.

[bristolri_wx]

Ha, Bastardi forecasted below normal snowfall in the Northeast! When’s the last time that happened?

Could be best the omen yet that maybe this winter won’t suck as much as last winter. Sure a broken clock gets it right twice a day but it’s still wrong the other 23:58!! 

[tamarack]

On 10/12/2024 at 5:24 AM, MJO812 said:

That winter was terrible here

Super latitudinal that season.  CAR lacked only 2.2" from reaching 200.  My place 2.2° lat to the south had 142.3" and Dendrite, 3.5° south of CAR, had a bit more than my place.  Meanwhile, PVD had 24.7".

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, tamarack said:

Super latitudinal that season.  CAR lacked only 2.2" from reaching 200.  My place 2.2° lat to the south had 142.3" and Dendrite, 3.5° south of CAR, had a bit more than my place.  Meanwhile, PVD had 24.7".

December 2007 was one of my better months of December....right up there with 1995, 2008 and 1970.

[CoastalWx]

We take 07, 08, and 95. Winters that I have witnessed, anyways.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We take 07, 08, and 95. Winters that I have witnessed, anyways.

1970-1971 was very much like 2007-2008. That was back before I did the outlooks, but I remember Will and I were discussing in the threads how that looked like a great analog during the fall and it was.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1970-1971 was very much like 2007-2008. That was back before I did the outlooks, but i remember Will and I were discussing how that looked like a great analog and it was.

That was big here too. Very similar to 07 like you said. I need to check, but I think 08 just beat it out here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That was big here too. Very similar to 07 like you said. I need to check, but I think 08 just beat it out here.

I'm sure 08 beat it out where you are...the graidient was further south by like 50mi, likely due to a weaker cool ENSO regime.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm sure 08 beat it out where you are...the graidient was further south by like 50mi, likely due to a weaker cool ENSO regime.

That little CJ event on the 20th helped.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That little CJ event on the 20th helped.

Those were great back-to-back events in the lead up to xmas.

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Those were great back-to-back events in the lead up to xmas.

Yeah you got buried on that follow up storm.