Winter 2024-2025 DISC

[J Paul Gordon]

Was wondering about the NJ scenario myself before Tip mentioned it. The question is whether its NW NJ or Cape May.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Fortunately I have no plans to move to Ohio

 

He’s something else lol. 

[michsnowfreak]

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He’s something else lol. 

He's completely one dimensional and is obsessed with using xmacis to run and twist numbers for any city anywhere in every subforum, like an annoying political ad.

Sometimes you have to step away from threaded numbers and use common sense. The Great Lakes and their influences on weather aren't going anywhere. And wetter winters (a well known attribute of cc) are a help, not a hindrance, for snowfall in cold climates.

The 2010s was the snowiest decade on record for Detroit, New York City, Boston, and many others. We are only halfway thru the 2020s. It's incredible how short sighted some are.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

He's completely one dimensional and is obsessed with using xmacis to run and twist numbers for any city anywhere in every subforum, like an annoying political ad.

Sometimes you have to step away from threaded numbers and use common sense. The Great Lakes and their influences on weather aren't going anywhere. And wetter winters (a well known attribute of cc) are a help, not a hindrance, for snowfall in cold climates.

The 2010s was the snowiest decade on record for Detroit, New York City, Boston, and many others. We are only halfway thru the 2020s. It's incredible how short sighted some are.

His screen name tells you all you need to know....walking agenda. 

[FPizz]

20 hours ago, qg_omega said:

You are king IMBY, congrats

You're a grown up and post limited on a weather board and banned from others, congrats

[tamarack]

18 hours ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Was wondering about the NJ scenario myself before Tip mentioned it. The question is whether its NW NJ or Cape May.

Long term averages in the NW part are +/-40".  Cape May less than half that much, though it had the state's greatest snowfall, 34" in the arctic blast of February 1898.  (Tallahassee recorded 2" and -2 at that time, for more state records.)   Mount Arlington in NW Jersey initially reported 35.1" in the early February storm in 2022 but quality checking knocked it back into the high 20s.  A couple of NNJ sites recorded more snow in Feb 2022 than my Maine foothills had for all of 21-22.  
The sizable ski area in Vernon depends mainly on the snow guns, no change from when I learned to ski there in the early 1970s.

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

His screen name tells you all you need to know....walking agenda. 

Indeed. Its nothing but xmacis data, reasons why old data that goes against his agenda is wrong, reasons why an outrageously mild or low snow year is the new normal even if it only happened once, and on and on and on. If one city doesnt fit his narrative about a certain subject, then onto another city. He will make a post and quote/reply to himself 3-4 times on that same post.

 

He said It wasnt representative of southeast MI in 2022-23 when Detroit got 37.1" because they got "lucky" bc Toledo, OH only had 14.3" (measurments are taken well SW of Toledo, btw). I pointed out that Ann Arbor, the DTX NWS, and Flint all had 7"+ more than DTW, and are closer than Toledo, so he just moved onto the next thing. Last year, when I made a note of how it was the first year since 1915 that Detroit didnt exceed 90F, he said that it was not a big deal (again, this is the guy who will spam a thread to note that Middleofnowhere, IA has set a record for most days over 68F). And dozens of other similar examples. I see he posts in every subforum too. I do have him on ignore (and I know for a fact many others do too), but depending on my mood sometimes I read to see what the lastest story is 

[George001]

On 10/22/2024 at 7:33 PM, michsnowfreak said:

He's completely one dimensional and is obsessed with using xmacis to run and twist numbers for any city anywhere in every subforum, like an annoying political ad.

Sometimes you have to step away from threaded numbers and use common sense. The Great Lakes and their influences on weather aren't going anywhere. And wetter winters (a well known attribute of cc) are a help, not a hindrance, for snowfall in cold climates.

The 2010s was the snowiest decade on record for Detroit, New York City, Boston, and many others. We are only halfway thru the 2020s. It's incredible how short sighted some are.

I am trying something new this winter, I am going to use an analog composite, and rather than evaluate winter patterns based on average temp and total snowfall, I will evaluate patterns based on how long the period of favorability is (what many of us refer to as windows of opportunity). This methodology attempts to limit the role of variance. I don’t like the idea of classifying the 2016-2017 and 2021-2022 winters as successes, as I feel my area having AN snow those years is a product of getting lucky in a bad pattern, and I would expect a much worse outcome 9/10 times if you run those 2 winters in a simulation 10 times. I mean, in 2021-2022 I got buried with 20 inches of snow from one storm in a short window of opportunity in a sea of warmth. Thats why my area finished with AN snow while north, south, east and west finished with BN snow. The only place that did better than me was maybe the south shore where they got 30 inches. Hey, I’m not going to complain about getting lucky but I’m also not going to count on it repeating if we get a similar pattern again. More often than not, it won’t. 

Like any other approaches, this approach has its own set of problems. It’s not as simple as favorable and unfavorable. 2014-2015 had about 2.5 months of favorability and 1.5 months of unfavorability and so did 2017-2018. According to this way of evaluating winters, 2017-2018 and 2014-2015 would be equal. In reality, 2014-2015 was better and should have been. Why? Feb literally averaged -10 BN. The actual weather pattern was about as good as it possibly can be for New England. So the magnitude of favorability/unfavorability does matter, and this approach doesn’t capture that.  

I do feel this approach still has value even now, as I am inherently against the idea of using extreme analogs like 14-15, 11-12, etc to begin with. I do however think it will run into issues if we say get a high end strong nino/ moderate + strength modoki Nina with a -PDO like last year/the year before, or a weak modoki Nino/east based weak Nina with a strong +PDO like 14-15/95-96. Those scenarios have a heightened potential for an “extreme” scenario. Nothing really screams ratter or blockbuster this year, which is why I think this approach has some merit for this year and I’m going to give it a shot. I do plan to tweak it in the future to account for the magnitude of favorability/unfavorability, as that does matter and is a fairly big flaw in this approach. Though once you go beyond a certain +AN threshold you are looking at a shutout pattern

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

Thats why my area finished with AN snow while north, south, east and west finished with BN snow.

That's my dream winter.

 

[WinterSnow]

Seeing Michsnowfreak's post made me want to go back through the history of snowfall in Hartford.

I was suspecting that maybe the mild, weak winters that you all have been experiencing in New England are actually kinda like the winters I used to have back in NE Oklahoma before the mid to late 2000s. So your weak winters would be like the better winters we had down there. LOL

Nevertheless, I saw that Hartford only recorded 3 inches in the winter of 2001/2. WHATTTTTT?? That is bleak. That's like modern NE Oklahoma winter nonsense. I would cry if that happened this winter up here.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

I am trying something new this winter, I am going to use an analog composite, and rather than evaluate winter patterns based on average temp and total snowfall, I will evaluate patterns based on how long the period of favorability is (what many of us refer to as windows of opportunity). This methodology attempts to limit the role of variance. I don’t like the idea of classifying the 2016-2017 and 2021-2022 winters as successes, as I feel my area having AN snow those years is a product of getting lucky in a bad pattern, and I would expect a much worse outcome 9/10 times if you run those 2 winters in a simulation 10 times. I mean, in 2021-2022 I got buried with 20 inches of snow from one storm in a short window of opportunity in a sea of warmth. Thats why my area finished with AN snow while north, south, east and west finished with BN snow. The only place that did better than me was maybe the south shore where they got 30 inches. Hey, I’m not going to complain about getting lucky but I’m also not going to count on it repeating if we get a similar pattern again. More often than not, it won’t. 

Like any other approaches, this approach has its own set of problems. It’s not as simple as favorable and unfavorable. 2014-2015 had about 2.5 months of favorability and 1.5 months of unfavorability and so did 2017-2018. According to this way of evaluating winters, 2017-2018 and 2014-2015 would be equal. In reality, 2014-2015 was better and should have been. Why? Feb literally averaged -10 BN. The actual weather pattern was about as good as it possibly can be for New England. So the magnitude of favorability/unfavorability does matter, and this approach doesn’t capture that.  

I do feel this approach still has value even now, as I am inherently against the idea of using extreme analogs like 14-15, 11-12, etc to begin with. I do however think it will run into issues if we say get a high end strong nino/ moderate + strength modoki Nina with a -PDO like last year/the year before, or a weak modoki Nino/east based weak Nina with a strong +PDO like 14-15/95-96. Those scenarios have a heightened potential for an “extreme” scenario. Nothing really screams ratter or blockbuster this year, which is why I think this approach has some merit for this year and I’m going to give it a shot. I do plan to tweak it in the future to account for the magnitude of favorability/unfavorability, as that does matter and is a fairly big flaw in this approach. Though once you go beyond a certain +AN threshold you are looking at a shutout pattern

This is is a great idea! We all are guilty of getting wrapped up in certain past winters (both good and bad) when in reality even if everything aligned the same, the sensible weather result would vary.

[DavisStraight]

10 hours ago, WinterSnow said:

Seeing Michsnowfreak's post made me want to go back through the history of snowfall in Hartford.

I was suspecting that maybe the mild, weak winters that you all have been experiencing in New England are actually kinda like the winters I used to have back in NE Oklahoma before the mid to late 2000s. So your weak winters would be like the better winters we had down there. LOL

Nevertheless, I saw that Hartford only recorded 3 inches in the winter of 2001/2. WHATTTTTT?? That is bleak. That's like modern NE Oklahoma winter nonsense. I would cry if that happened this winter up here.

That was a freak winter, probably won't be that bad. You should have moved up here prior to 2011 and you would have been buried a couple of winters.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 hours ago, WinterSnow said:

Seeing Michsnowfreak's post made me want to go back through the history of snowfall in Hartford.

I was suspecting that maybe the mild, weak winters that you all have been experiencing in New England are actually kinda like the winters I used to have back in NE Oklahoma before the mid to late 2000s. So your weak winters would be like the better winters we had down there. LOL

Nevertheless, I saw that Hartford only recorded 3 inches in the winter of 2001/2. WHATTTTTT?? That is bleak. That's like modern NE Oklahoma winter nonsense. I would cry if that happened this winter up here.

A good chance that you will. 

[CoastalWx]

11 hours ago, WinterSnow said:

Seeing Michsnowfreak's post made me want to go back through the history of snowfall in Hartford.

I was suspecting that maybe the mild, weak winters that you all have been experiencing in New England are actually kinda like the winters I used to have back in NE Oklahoma before the mid to late 2000s. So your weak winters would be like the better winters we had down there. LOL

Nevertheless, I saw that Hartford only recorded 3 inches in the winter of 2001/2. WHATTTTTT?? That is bleak. That's like modern NE Oklahoma winter nonsense. I would cry if that happened this winter up here.

That sounds like an error. There is no city in SNE that had 3”. Ever.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That sounds like an error. There is no city in SNE that had 3”. Ever.

A lot of the coop data is dreadful.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

That sounds like an error. There is no city in SNE that had 3”. Ever.

Snow data is missing for Jan-April 2002.  Looking at temp/precip, I doubt BDL reached 20".

[FlashFreeze]

That was an almost snowless winter, I don’t remember exactly how much snow we had that year but maybe 12 to 15 inches in Collinsville CT. if that.

[ORH_wxman]

On 10/25/2024 at 10:37 AM, tamarack said:

Snow data is missing for Jan-April 2002.  Looking at temp/precip, I doubt BDL reached 20".

BDL was prob around 15" in 2001-02.....really awful winter, but 3" is laughable. Even at BDL. The only places that have plausibly experienced a 3" seasonal total in New England are maybe some of the beaches down on the south coast of CT....esp really close to the NY line.

[pasnownut]

On 10/23/2024 at 7:41 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

His screen name tells you all you need to know....walking agenda. 

I'm sorry that he's now lurking in your thread.  He's been muckin it up in ours for a few years, and a few of us early on called him out on is one sided agenda...and finally others are catching on.  He does a disservice to real objective climate chatter, as his is rather one sided, and now that others are catching onto him, he's looking for other regions to try to advance his agenda.  

Sorry for you, but hopefully he'll stay in your thread, where I'm guessing his welcome will wear out much more quickly than our group.

Hoping you guys get a good winter up there.  Were all due.

[512high]

8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

BDL was prob around 15" in 2001-02.....really awful winter, but 3" is laughable. Even at BDL. The only places that have plausibly experienced a 3" seasonal total in New England are maybe some of the beaches down on the south coast of CT....esp really close to the NY line.

Nice to see you back! Look forward to your input this winter!

[buckeye]

On 10/22/2024 at 5:08 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Fortunately I have no plans to move to Ohio

 

No need to, CMH climo has come to you.    We're now Lexington KY      

[TheClimateChanger]

I have seen 1999-2000 bandied as a candidate, as well, by some professional meteorologists. The current pattern is somewhat reminiscent to that of 2022, as well. So I wonder if 2022-2023 is a possible analog?

[TheClimateChanger]

On 10/28/2024 at 10:41 AM, ORH_wxman said:

BDL was prob around 15" in 2001-02.....really awful winter, but 3" is laughable. Even at BDL. The only places that have plausibly experienced a 3" seasonal total in New England are maybe some of the beaches down on the south coast of CT....esp really close to the NY line.

xMacis has 14.1 inches at BDL that winter. There's a lot of missing data, but it looks like it's been supplemented on days when snow fell in 1999-2000 and 2001-2002.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

xMacis has 14.1 inches at BDL that winter. There's a lot of missing data, but it looks like it's been supplemented on days when snow fell in 1999-2000 and 2001-2002.

Yeah, it looks like the 3" figure cited above was only from December. Maybe they didn't have an observer the rest of the winter? It looks like snow days have been supplemented though in the official records.

This is the January 2002 snowfall from xMacis:

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, buckeye said:

No need to, CMH climo has come to you.    We're now Lexington KY      

Columbus is actually the most appealing big city in Ohio imo. Fortunately DTW still averages 4° colder in winter and averages 17" more snow than CMH 

[George001]

4 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I have seen 1999-2000 bandied as a candidate, as well, by some professional meteorologists. The current pattern is somewhat reminiscent to that of 2022, as well. So I wonder if 2022-2023 is a possible analog?

I liked 2022-2023 as a possible analog at first but the fall pattern is completely different. It certainly could still have similarities though. Both are cold ENSO winters with a strong -PDO pattern, so I wouldn’t rule it out completely as an analog, it’s just further down the list now. 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

I liked 2022-2023 as a possible analog at first but the fall pattern is completely different. It certainly could still have similarities though. Both are cold ENSO winters with a strong -PDO pattern.

Interesting. I assumed that the fall patterns must have had some similarities, since we also had widespread drought that year. How did such disparate fall patterns each produce a widespread CONUS drought?

In fact, if you look at the weekly drought monitor, this week had the least amount of area not in D0-D4 since the map began being published at the beginning of 2000 [25 years]. It narrowly beat out 2022's peak, almost to the exact same day of the year.

[George001]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Interesting. I assumed that the fall patterns must have had some similarities, since we also had widespread drought that year. How did such disparate fall patterns each produce a widespread CONUS drought?

In fact, if you look at the weekly drought monitor, this week had the least amount of area not in D0-D4 since the map began being published at the beginning of 2000 [25 years]. It narrowly beat out 2022's peak, almost to the exact same day of the year.

The big difference was the temp profile, it was colder in the west late fall 2022. 

[TheClimateChanger]

On 10/22/2024 at 5:08 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Fortunately I have no plans to move to Ohio

 

Yeah, ok. Sure, there was zero snow in Marquette in 1965, and very little in all of the 1960s [even though that was a very cold and snowy decade - as you know, more than most!]. As Joe Biden would say, c'mon man! Those early snow totals in Marquette [which lead to the extreme positive trend] aren't even remotely believable.

And it's completely irrelevant. Your winter climate is much more similar to that of Toledo or even Columbus, than Marquette. Get real.

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Yeah, ok. Sure, there was zero snow in Marquette in 1965, and very little in all of the 1960s [even though that was a very cold and snowy decade - as you know, more than most!]. As Joe Biden would say, c'mon man! Those early snow totals in Marquette [which lead to the extreme positive trend] aren't even remotely believable.

And it's completely irrelevant. Your winter climate is much more similar to that of Toledo or even Columbus, than Marquette. Get real.

As for Marquette, I am wondering if the lake froze earlier/longer in the 60s, thus reducing snow totals.  That said, the numbers for 65 and 66 are a bit odd, to say the least.