Winter 2024-2025 DISC

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah you got buried on that follow up storm.

Yea, naked cf twister. I had 21" between the two events...10" from the first and 11" in the follow up.

[tamarack]

55 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

December 2007 was one of my better months of December....right up there with 1995, 2008 and 1970.

2007 was our snowiest December and February 2008 was only 0.4" behind 2017 for tops. (noted on the sig)

[Deck Pic]

My top analogs for 2024-2025.  Mixed bag for DC.  I think Boston did pretty well during these winters.  Good luck guys.  

36-37, 79-80, 88-89, 01-02, 11-12

[Deck Pic]

On 10/15/2024 at 10:37 AM, CoastalWx said:

That was big here too. Very similar to 07 like you said. I need to check, but I think 08 just beat it out here.

I remember 07-08 up there. SWFE for days and days

I've been looking at specific Nov-Dec analogs, and I think I like Nov-Dec 1973 the best.  Pretty decent in DC.  Not sure how you all fared.

[tamarack]

8 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

My top analogs for 2024-2025.  Mixed bag for DC.  I think Boston did pretty well during these winters.  Good luck guys.  

36-37, 79-80, 88-89, 01-02, 11-12

Sarcasm?  Those 5 include Boston's 7th least snowy (88-89) and their 4 worst snow winters.  And 73-74 there had no measurable until Jan 3.  

[Typhoon Tip]

vastly warmer than normal winter with one or two short duration cold incursions

not shocked if your local climate sites are +4+ every month 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My final ENSO update...last blog from me until Outlook release roughly 11/11.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/10/weakening-trend-of-enso-guidance.html

 

[qg_omega]

18 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

vastly warmer than normal winter with one or two short duration cold incursions

not shocked if your local climate sites are +4+ every month 

You can copy and paste that every year ever be set

[J Paul Gordon]

Glad to catch the positive vibes and joy here. 

[DavisStraight]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

You can copy and paste that every year ever be set

You would have been spot on last 3-4 winters but eventually that will change. I'm with the Wolf on this, eventually we'll get another good winter, probably when we don't expect it.

[J Paul Gordon]

We still have the rest of October and all of November before we even get to the start of climatological winter. Calling (or inferring) 24-25 is already a bust is pretty far out on a limb. Let's wait til February for that. There are lots of good chances for snow and at least short-term (as in weeklong) cold snaps, even if interrupted by warmth.

[cleetussnow]

This winter sucks already.

[MJO812]

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1848506703542948155?t=yKnUAfpu7hvNuFwibnBbjA&s=19

[powderfreak]

On 10/19/2024 at 9:03 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

vastly warmer than normal winter with one or two short duration cold incursions

not shocked if your local climate sites are +4+ every month 

I mean that’s been no problem lately.  We can do that easily with the lack of radiational cooling in recent winters.

[powderfreak]

On 10/20/2024 at 5:56 PM, DavisStraight said:

You would have been spot on last 3-4 winters but eventually that will change. I'm with the Wolf on this, eventually we'll get another good winter, probably when we don't expect it.

Luckily we can still get good snow up here in +4ish temps.  It’s when we start pushing the +6 to +8 up here that things get bleak in a hurry.

Of course the margin for error with positive departures decreases as one heads south… with almost no margin of error by the time you’re in NYC and south latitudes.

[cleetussnow]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I mean that’s been no problem lately.  We can do that easily with the lack of radiational cooling in recent winters.

Right just feedback loop yourself right out of a winter.