Go Kart Mozart Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 hour ago, mreaves said: Hopefully Chairman Mao and President Nixon can negotiate a treaty that will allow for us to help with heating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Tricky Dick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 On 9/24/2024 at 11:56 AM, Typhoon Tip said: a very difficult and complex set of reasons for that assessment ... haha Lol yea it’s a big reach leaning BN snows lately, I know. I’m really sticking my neck out… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 I remember having a debate about whether the 22-23 disaster was more bad luck or a shit pattern. Well, a lot of the background factors heading into winter look quite similar this year, so there is a decent chance this winter will help answer that question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 Minus the Jan 22 blizzard it’s been kind of dismal 5+ years here on the whole, after our epic stretch. Not sure how much longer I’ll be at my current location, so hoping for a good one this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 Been reading up, and it seems like following outcome for this winter based on the data so far - in general terms: - Likely overall to be above normal temps, below normal snow. - Greater chances of a bigger storm or two to setup due to pattern, thank last year. - Greater chances of more arctic cold outbreaks than last year. So a good chance it will be better than last year, but need some luck for it to be much better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30 Author Share Posted September 30 On 9/28/2024 at 2:50 AM, George001 said: I remember having a debate about whether the 22-23 disaster was more bad luck or a shit pattern. Well, a lot of the background factors heading into winter look quite similar this year, so there is a decent chance this winter will help answer that question. I think it depends on locale....there was a good bit of bad luck for my area, but it was more pattern further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 On 9/29/2024 at 9:06 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think it depends on locale....there was a good bit of bad luck for my area, but it was more pattern further south. Absolutely. 22-23 snow was latitudinal, with much of NNE getting AN. 23-24 was more of a unicorn, with the spring storms focused on the NNE foothills. We had 11" more than CAR that winter despite their average being 32" greater during the 26 winters here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 7 hours ago, tamarack said: Absolutely. 22-23 snow was latitudinal, with much of NNE getting AN. 23-24 was more of a unicorn, with the spring storms focused on the NNE foothills. We had 11" more than CAR that winter despite their average being 32" greater during the 26 winters here. 23-24 had an interesting distribution here in SVT too. I ended up with 11" more than Mitch, despite him probably averaging 40-50" more per season and only 25 miles south of me. Very weird and probably low prob of that happening again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 Doubt it matters in the whole scheme of things but it’s interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 4 Share Posted October 4 We did twice as good last year(23-24..25”) as the year before(22-23..12.5”). If we do twice as well this year, we’ll be at average. So that’s what I’m feeling. Working our way back. Hope Mike is right. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 4 Share Posted October 4 18 hours ago, MJO812 said: a problem with this is idea above is considering the quasi decoupled tendencies. global patterns appear at times disconnected from enso forcing. this can happen at any time, ..depending on the total integral of influences, usually more transient. but the observations of it have been increasing over the last 10 years with some times even nino modes showing up during and post ninas and vice versa. if 'la nada' prevails this ensuing season, it seems logical that these notable excursion tendencies may also factor and screw up inferred models there, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 4 Share Posted October 4 Good points. But There’s always something that will off set something else…so at this point in time, it’s as good a theory as any. I guess that’s the fun of all this, there are no certainties with so many variables in play, and how they affect each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted October 4 Share Posted October 4 Nothing's ever written in stone. The last two years, for example, threw a lot of us for a loop as far as what we thought was going to happen, especially for the lower half of New England and the tri-state area. I think what brings us all back is not only the Passion for The winter season, but also the excitement of the unknown. Just because there is a direction with the models of what is thought to happen for this 2024-2025 season, does not mean it's going to happen, which definitely gives us all hope on what we wish would happen. Phew.... Hope that made sense..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted October 4 Share Posted October 4 I know there is a lot of pessimism surrounding this winter, but I am a lot more optimistic than last year. Do I think it will be epic like 2014-2015 or 2010-2011? No I don’t, but the fall pattern so far has been somewhat different than the past 2 years (not seeing a parade of storms crashing into the Pacific Northwest) which I believe does matter. I never liked last winter, but im actually kind of excited about this one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 4 Share Posted October 4 well like i was telling Ray a moon or two ago ... there's nothing about the entirety of the state of the climate ( yet ) that suggests a 2015 february can't redux. even 50% of a redux would be a crushing win over these last 7 inches ... uh, i mean years of winters we've been boned by whether the indices align or not ...that's what i'm personally wondering. we may get more of the idiosyncratic or incongruous events from the excessive variability, week to week. heh ... could get the winter quota in 3 storms over 10 days and we're back to cargo shorts 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Call it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 On 10/1/2024 at 6:36 PM, backedgeapproaching said: 23-24 had an interesting distribution here in SVT too. I ended up with 11" more than Mitch, despite him probably averaging 40-50" more per season and only 25 miles south of me. Very weird and probably low prob of that happening again. It was a weird winter. I was on the rain/snow line many times with rain after a 2-4", 3-5" snowfall while areas 25-30 miles north stayed snow more, despite being at lower elevation. I finished with 94" on the season, which is well below normal, but not at as bad as 2015-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Call it Old run. New one below. Cooler than last runs as winter progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Old run. New one below. Cooler than last runs as winter progresses. BN February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Call it phase 5 for the rest of our lives. not trolling 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: phase 5 for the rest of our lives. not trolling Correct, maritime heat wave forever 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 yes, the weather never changes, obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 On 10/5/2024 at 11:38 AM, forkyfork said: phase 5 for the rest of our lives. not trolling November will be chilly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 On 10/7/2024 at 9:03 AM, Allsnow said: November will be chilly Looks to start off record warm 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MBRI Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Snowing at Sunday River. https://www.facebook.com/sundayriver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 I know I'm not as savvy as some of you on here when it comes to knowledge with the weather patterns, but I've been on here enough to have an idea. I read a really interesting article about the polar vortex being the weakest in 40 years and the effects it may have on the weather in North America. Especially the Northeast. I don't think this was taken into consideration with some of the previous forecasts for the upcoming winter and wondering what your thoughts are. The article is in the link below https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/record-weak-polar-vortex-event-2024-winter-weather-pattern-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 I know I'm not as savvy as some of you on here when it comes to knowledge with the weather patterns, but I've been on here enough to have an idea. I read a really interesting article about the polar vortex being the weakest in 40 years and the effects it may have on the weather in North America. Especially the Northeast. I don't think this was taken into consideration with some of the previous forecasts for the upcoming winter and wondering what your thoughts are. The article is in the link below https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/record-weak-polar-vortex-event-2024-winter-weather-pattern-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ Judah Cohen: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 On 10/9/2024 at 12:37 PM, snowman19 said: Judah Cohen: I can address both questions: Nothing. ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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