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Winter 2024-2025 DISC


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I remember having a debate about whether the 22-23 disaster was more bad luck or a shit pattern. Well, a lot of the background factors heading into winter look quite similar this year, so there is a decent chance this winter will help answer that question. 

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Been reading up, and it seems like following outcome for this winter based on the data so far - in general terms:

- Likely overall to be above normal temps, below normal snow.

- Greater chances of a bigger storm or two to setup due to pattern, thank last year.

- Greater chances of more arctic cold outbreaks than last year.

So a good chance it will be better than last year, but need some luck for it to be much better. 

 

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On 9/28/2024 at 2:50 AM, George001 said:

I remember having a debate about whether the 22-23 disaster was more bad luck or a shit pattern. Well, a lot of the background factors heading into winter look quite similar this year, so there is a decent chance this winter will help answer that question. 

I think it depends on locale....there was a good bit of bad luck for my area, but it was more pattern further south.

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On 9/29/2024 at 9:06 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it depends on locale....there was a good bit of bad luck for my area, but it was more pattern further south.

Absolutely.  22-23 snow was latitudinal, with much of NNE getting AN. 
23-24 was more of a unicorn, with the spring storms focused on the NNE foothills.  We had 11" more than CAR that winter despite their average being 32" greater during the 26 winters here.

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7 hours ago, tamarack said:

Absolutely.  22-23 snow was latitudinal, with much of NNE getting AN. 
23-24 was more of a unicorn, with the spring storms focused on the NNE foothills.  We had 11" more than CAR that winter despite their average being 32" greater during the 26 winters here.

23-24 had an interesting distribution here in SVT too. I ended up with 11" more than Mitch, despite him probably averaging 40-50" more per season and only 25 miles south of me.  Very weird and probably low prob of that happening again.

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18 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Screenshot_20241003_142259_X.jpg

a problem with this is idea above is considering the quasi decoupled tendencies.

global patterns appear at times disconnected from enso forcing. this can happen at any time, ..depending on the total integral of influences, usually more transient.  but the observations of it have been increasing over the last 10 years with some times even nino modes showing up during and post ninas and vice versa. 

if 'la nada' prevails this ensuing season, it seems logical that these notable excursion tendencies may also factor and screw up inferred models there, too

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Good points.  
 

But There’s always something that will off set something else…so at this point in time, it’s as good a theory as any. I guess that’s the fun of all this, there are no certainties with so many variables in play, and how they affect each other.   

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Nothing's ever written in stone. The last two years, for example, threw a lot of us for a loop as far as what we thought was going to happen, especially for the lower half of New England and the tri-state area. I think what brings us all back is not only the Passion for The winter season, but also the excitement of the unknown. Just because there is a direction with the models of what is thought to happen for this 2024-2025 season, does not mean it's going to happen, which definitely gives us all hope on what we wish would happen. 

Phew.... Hope that made sense..lol

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I know there is a lot of pessimism surrounding this winter, but I am a lot more optimistic than last year. Do I think it will be epic like 2014-2015 or 2010-2011? No I don’t, but the fall pattern so far has been somewhat different than the past 2 years (not seeing a parade of storms crashing into the Pacific Northwest) which I believe does matter. I never liked last winter, but im actually kind of excited about this one.

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well like i was telling Ray a moon or two ago ... there's nothing about the entirety of the state of the climate ( yet ) that suggests a 2015 february can't redux.   even 50% of a redux would be a crushing win over these last 7 inches ... uh, i mean years of winters we've been boned by

whether the indices align or not ...that's what i'm personally wondering.  we may get more of the idiosyncratic or incongruous events from the excessive variability, week to week.   heh ... could get the winter quota in 3 storms over 10 days and we're back to cargo shorts

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On 10/1/2024 at 6:36 PM, backedgeapproaching said:

23-24 had an interesting distribution here in SVT too. I ended up with 11" more than Mitch, despite him probably averaging 40-50" more per season and only 25 miles south of me.  Very weird and probably low prob of that happening again.

It was a weird winter. I was on the rain/snow line many times with rain after a 2-4", 3-5" snowfall while areas 25-30 miles north stayed snow more, despite being at lower elevation. I finished with 94" on the season, which is well below normal, but not at as bad as 2015-16.

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I know I'm not as savvy as some of you on here when it comes to knowledge with the weather patterns, but I've been on here enough to have an idea. I read a really interesting article about the polar vortex being the weakest in 40 years and the effects it may have on the weather in North America. Especially the Northeast. I don't think this was taken into consideration with some of the previous forecasts for the upcoming winter and wondering what your thoughts are. The article is in the link below

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/record-weak-polar-vortex-event-2024-winter-weather-pattern-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

 

 

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I know I'm not as savvy as some of you on here when it comes to knowledge with the weather patterns, but I've been on here enough to have an idea. I read a really interesting article about the polar vortex being the weakest in 40 years and the effects it may have on the weather in North America. Especially the Northeast. I don't think this was taken into consideration with some of the previous forecasts for the upcoming winter and wondering what your thoughts are. The article is in the link below
 
https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/record-weak-polar-vortex-event-2024-winter-weather-pattern-united-states-canada-europe-fa/
 
 

Judah Cohen:

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