Winter 2024-2025 DISC

[weatherwiz]

I have to send a follow up email to PSL but a few months back the site I was using to make composites compared to the appropriate period stopped generating images. When I initially emailed them they said they were looking into it. This happened just before everything happened with the dog and just haven't followed up. 

I had some new ideas I wanted to try with the breakdowns based on ENSO/strength but have fallen really behind. I wish I either had significantly more time or was smart enough to learn programming and coding...that right there would go a long way in all this. But I wanted to start assessing previous ENSO events and pattern evolution on a weekly basis starting from like mid-Fall. What's becoming very challenging with using ENSO in seasonal forecasting though is, focusing on ONI and SST's alone just aren't cutting it anymore. ENSO events and how they are impacting atmospheric circulations are behaving much differently over the last 20-30 years. Obviously there needs to be some skepticism with that statement because when assessing events prior to 1950 much of the data is re-analysis and derived from ship data and there are huge gaps in data during the 2 world wars. 

But what I re-started back in the spring was creating a list of ENSO events for each of the following methods

ONI 

ENS-ONI

RONI

I was then looking into SOI data and assessing the SOI and looking at SOI data for the following methods 

SOI from the Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)  

SOI from the University of East Anglia 

SOI from Long Paddock 

CPC SOI 

CPC Equatorial SOI 

The methods used to calculate the SOI are extremely similar, however, Long Paddock/Australia used a x10 multiplier and Long Paddock also uses a bit longer climo background. I think Long Paddock/Australia's method makes SOI assessment much easier. 

Then next looking into MEI. What sucks with MEI is v2 only dates to 1979. There is the extended version which dates to like the 1870's but I believe it stopped being updated in the 2000's. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I have to send a follow up email to PSL but a few months back the site I was using to make composites compared to the appropriate period stopped generating images. When I initially emailed them they said they were looking into it. This happened just before everything happened with the dog and just haven't followed up. 

I had some new ideas I wanted to try with the breakdowns based on ENSO/strength but have fallen really behind. I wish I either had significantly more time or was smart enough to learn programming and coding...that right there would go a long way in all this. But I wanted to start assessing previous ENSO events and pattern evolution on a weekly basis starting from like mid-Fall. What's becoming very challenging with using ENSO in seasonal forecasting though is, focusing on ONI and SST's alone just aren't cutting it anymore. ENSO events and how they are impacting atmospheric circulations are behaving much differently over the last 20-30 years. Obviously there needs to be some skepticism with that statement because when assessing events prior to 1950 much of the data is re-analysis and derived from ship data and there are huge gaps in data during the 2 world wars. 

But what I re-started back in the spring was creating a list of ENSO events for each of the following methods

ONI 

ENS-ONI

RONI

I was then looking into SOI data and assessing the SOI and looking at SOI data for the following methods 

SOI from the Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)  

SOI from the University of East Anglia 

SOI from Long Paddock 

CPC SOI 

CPC Equatorial SOI 

The methods used to calculate the SOI are extremely similar, however, Long Paddock/Australia used a x10 multiplier and Long Paddock also uses a bit longer climo background. I think Long Paddock/Australia's method makes SOI assessment much easier. 

Then next looking into MEI. What sucks with MEI is v2 only dates to 1979. There is the extended version which dates to like the 1870's but I believe it stopped being updated in the 2000's. 

 

The 1951-2010 composite site is back up.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/index.html

However, they still haven't update the temp/precip plots to include 9/2024.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/

Here is the old MEI data:

https://www.webberweather.com/multivariate-enso-index.html

 

[WinterWolf]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just meant "party" as in +PNA...probably should have worded that better. I just mean latitude will be probably be needed more in February than January. Obviously this is all just specualtion based on some preliminary stuff.

Gotcha!  And it Makes sense. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The 1951-2010 composite site is back up.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/index.html

However, they still haven't update the temp/precip plots to include 9/2024.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/

Here is the old MEI data:

https://www.webberweather.com/multivariate-enso-index.html

 

I wish they added more blocks for the number of years you can input. I know with the temp maps on the climate division site you posted they increased the blocks from 20 to 30. 

I know you mainly focus on ENSO events post 1950 while I was going back to 1900, however, I am beginning to wonder if I should put any weight on forecasts using events prior to 1950. I don't want to abandoned studying patterns of ENSO events prior to 1950 but it is evident as daylight there is a major shift in how ENSO's behave over time...especially after the 1960's/1970's. 

For example, I stupidly went below-average temps for like the eastern third of the country last winter...but if I eliminated EL NIno events from before 1960 from my list, I probably wouldn't have done that. 

[klw]

Put the Nokias on the Subaru yesterday.  Bring it on!    (summer tires were toast)

[CoastalWx]

Makes me feel a lot better Ray is using 14-15 as an analog.

[brooklynwx99]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Makes me feel a lot better Ray is using 14-15 as an analog.

13-14 is actually a pretty decent analog. unfortunately, so is 22-23, which was a major dud

[CoastalWx]

25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

13-14 is actually a pretty decent analog. unfortunately, so is 22-23, which was a major dud

I'm just busting Ray. Just hoping for a serviceable period. 

[WinterWolf]

Let’s get an average winter. That’d seem and be great for all of us.  Had 50% of average last year. 25% in 22-23. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

13-14 is actually a pretty decent analog. unfortunately, so is 22-23, which was a major dud

A blend of those would be fine for many.

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Let’s get an average winter. That’d seem and be great for all of us.  Had 50% of average last year. 25% in 22-23. 

How were the last two years up North?

[dendrite]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Makes me feel a lot better Ray is using 14-15 as an analog.

Hopefully 1914-15

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

How were the last two years up North?

Variable.  Apparently, the Maine foothills did as well as any.

Site            BGR      CAR   Rangeley   Hartford**   MBY

Avg SN*    73.9      120.2      120.9        105.5       89.0
22-23        72.6      133.4        92.0        119.2      101.2
23-24        45.5       88.2        93.8        109.6       99.0

*   1991-2020 norms for the first 3, 1998-99 onward (total records) averages for the other 2.
**  Hartford Maine lies in the Sumner Hills of central Oxford County.  It's 26 miles SW from my place and 310 feet higher in elevation, a good snow catcher.

Biggest foothills "catches" compared to the other sites' snowfall were 20-27"+ on Dec 16-18, 2022, 20-24"+ Mar 23-24, 2024, and 14-20" Apr 4-6, 2024.
Hartford had a total of 68.3" from those 3 storms; my share was "only" 57.9".

[CCHurricane]

3 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

How were the last two years up North?

Using the Mansfield Snow Stake (Stowe,VT) as a proxy...last three years. 

• 2021-2022 was a challenging year throughout
• 2022-2023 struggled for most of the winter, yet rallied with some late season (albeit short lived) magic
• 2023-204 followed a similar path, pockets of decent storms followed by snowmelt below average, with March delivering a short lived season ending snowfall bump.

[ma blizzard]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully 1914-15

I'd take it if it meant we were 2 years away from a 1917-1918 repeat  

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

How were the last two years up North?

Last year was bad.
 

 22-23 was pretty good. Was riding on great trails on April 2nd 2023.  They had a huge March in ‘23 in Northern Aroostook.  Put the icing on the season. 

[512high]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Last year was bad.
 

 22-23 was pretty good. Was riding on great trails on April 2nd 2023.  They had a huge March in ‘23 in Northern Aroostook.  Put the icing on the season. 

Yes, (31.5" for last season, year before about 42") but shit , I hope it's NOT a repeat like last season, just would like an "average" winter, we shall see....no control over it that's for sure!

[bwt3650]

How were the last two years up North?

The best worst winter ever….think Steven Adler doing speed balls. The highs were great, but the lows inevitably followed. The April 4th 3 footer was a nice way to end it tho.


.

[qg_omega]

https://x.com/climatologist49/status/1836922258532749456?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

[powderfreak]

On 9/19/2024 at 5:04 PM, CCHurricane said:

Using the Mansfield Snow Stake (Stowe,VT) as a proxy...last three years. 

• 2021-2022 was a challenging year throughout
• 2022-2023 struggled for most of the winter, yet rallied with some late season (albeit short lived) magic
• 2023-204 followed a similar path, pockets of decent storms followed by snowmelt below average, with March delivering a short lived season ending snowfall bump.

The Mansfield stake data is so important to me and your post shows why it’s such a great data set.  It’s a simple data set that really works to show different winters’ characteristics.

In 1954 some dude put a tall piece of wood against a tree to measure the snowpack that season… and 70-years later here we are still recording the snow depth on that piece of wood.

Anytime the NOAA camera goes out up there, we (at the ski operations) will make sure to get up there.  So much so, we will skin/hike up the hill to get readings if the lifts aren’t running.

I think the crowd sourcing and local dedication to that data point is awesome.  If NWS is looking for a reading, the community gets it with a photo for verification.  Someone out there will pass by it, on foot or snowcat/snowmobile.  We pass it along to BTV to keep the record going.

But most readings are done from a camera the local NWS set up.  The fact the BTV office has put so much money and energy into technology to continue the readings remotely is a testament to its novelty.  4kft elevation snowpack numbers for 70 years and counting. The period of record at that elevation is what makes it “the fabled stake.”

[powderfreak]

CPC seasonal probabilities (these maps shouldn’t be called “outlooks”) out today.

A lean towards above normal and moist relative to normal.  No big risk taking there.

That’s the safe play recently… lean AN in temperatures and those positive departures usually come with some moisture in the cold season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The temp and precip anomaly plotting tool should be updated to include September 2024 soon...they are having some technical issues.

Cc:[email protected]

 

Fri, Sep 20 at 9:25 AM

 

 

Hi

Thanks for emailing. We are having unusual technical issues updating the dataset this month. We hope to have it updated soon.

Cathy Smith

answering for PSL data

Show original message

@weatherwiz

[weatherwiz]

42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@weatherwiz

Good to know!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

On 9/19/2024 at 10:17 PM, powderfreak said:

CPC seasonal probabilities (these maps shouldn’t be called “outlooks”) out today.

A lean towards above normal and moist relative to normal.  No big risk taking there.

That’s the safe play recently… lean AN in temperatures and those positive departures usually come with some moisture in the cold season.

High probability of a stout AK vortex though. I’m leaning towards another BN snow season for SNE. 

[Snowcrazed71]

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

High probability of a stout AK vortex though. I’m leaning towards another BN snow season for SNE. 

Of course it's going to be BN .. we wouldn't want it any other way... Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/09/consensus-aligning-with-expectations.html

 

[Typhoon Tip]

On 9/23/2024 at 11:04 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

High probability of a stout AK vortex though. I’m leaning towards another BN snow season for SNE. 

a very difficult and complex set of reasons for that assessment ...

haha

[Typhoon Tip]

gfs (and now ggem, 12z) with the first synoptic air type of the season by the end of the first week of october ...  45 days ahead of schedule - a recurring motif of autumns since 2000..   some years more so than others.

but its why for snow has been seen down to 40 n nearly half the octobers since 2000 - or whatever the incident recurrence has been but way above the 1950 to 2000 norm

but, it's likely by some 20% that these guidances are too amped with cold weight and trough depths at this range, anyway, but this is officially the demarcation time for this modeling year, that the models start catfishing winter enthusiasts

[Go Kart Mozart]

Euro shows the next 15 days are very cold over much of Asia, especially Red China.  Wagons west?  Or, east?  Straight down?  What direction is that anyway...

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Red China

Hopefully Chairman Mao and President Nixon can negotiate a treaty that will allow for us to help with heating.