40/70 Benchmark Posted July 10 Author Share Posted July 10 17 hours ago, MJO812 said: DT has grown so reductive and archaic in his seasonal analysis. Nevermind that it will assuredly be a La Nina by ONI standards, the cool ENSO Walker Cell will be very potent, regardless of the ONI. I'm not sure how that is lost on him. We all miss the boat sometimes....lord knows you have all seen it happened to me, but the key is to grow from it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 10 Author Share Posted July 10 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Fell free to beat me senseless with a pillow full of s, but here is a composite of the updated CSU ACE forecast analog seasons...minus 2020, which isn't included on the older data set. Here is 2020: I think a 2020 like season a reasonable hope for this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 On 7/8/2024 at 5:45 PM, qg_omega said: We roast I'm out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I'm out. What? Scooter knows better....., its only JULY! You, Tip, Omega(and others) maybe right, but things can change from now till then, I'm not looking for a blockbuster, but anything better then last winter would be fine with me. My total was about 31.5" in fact I think Ray got a tad more then that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 11 Author Share Posted July 11 16 hours ago, 512high said: What? Scooter knows better....., its only JULY! You, Tip, Omega(and others) maybe right, but things can change from now till then, I'm not looking for a blockbuster, but anything better then last winter would be fine with me. My total was about 31.5" in fact I think Ray got a tad more then that! I had 34.25"...largely due to lucking out Jan 7. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 16 hours ago, 512high said: What? Scooter knows better....., its only JULY! You, Tip, Omega(and others) maybe right, but things can change from now till then, I'm not looking for a blockbuster, but anything better then last winter would be fine with me. My total was about 31.5" in fact I think Ray got a tad more then that! I'm all set going through 6 months of Autumn again. You have no idea how bad the last two winters were mentally for me. It was so fucking depressing. The only thing keeping me going is the fact that stats say it can only get better. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 11 Author Share Posted July 11 6 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I'm all set going through 6 months of Autumn again. You have no idea how bad the last two winters were mentally for me. It was so fucking depressing. The only thing keeping me going is the fact that stats say it can only get better. I think this year will be better than the last two just based on shear probability, regardless of how bad things look in the grander scheme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think this year will be better than the last two just based on shear probability, regardless of how the thing look in the grander scheme. Yeah I'm rolling the dice based on that. Will be closing in on 3 years without a storm of 4". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 22 hours ago, 512high said: What? Scooter knows better....., its only JULY! You, Tip, Omega(and others) maybe right, but things can change from now till then, I'm not looking for a blockbuster, but anything better then last winter would be fine with me. My total was about 31.5" in fact I think Ray got a tad more then that! That's exactly what I ended up with 31.5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I'm all set going through 6 months of Autumn again. You have no idea how bad the last two winters were mentally for me. It was so fucking depressing. The only thing keeping me going is the fact that stats say it can only get better. speaking of stats, I think part of it is also just crushing regression to the mean. there were many winters with big coastals (2014-15 being the prime example) and I think we're crashing back down to offset those years. CC plays a part, of course, but I think stats are just as big of a factor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 11 Author Share Posted July 11 49 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: speaking of stats, I think part of it is also just crushing regression to the mean. there were many winters with big coastals (2014-15 being the prime example) and I think we're crashing back down to offset those years. CC plays a part, of course, but I think stats are just as big of a factor This is what I said in the main ENSO thread....even independent of CC, one had to expect this decade to take a hit after the run we just went on. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 On 7/11/2024 at 10:58 AM, CoastalWx said: Yeah I'm rolling the dice based on that. Will be closing in on 3 years without a storm of 4". That's horrible. They haven't been bad here.. we got lucky with a few storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 On 7/10/2024 at 7:16 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: DT has grown so reductive and archaic in his seasonal analysis. Nevermind that it will assuredly be a La Nina by ONI standards, the cool ENSO Walker Cell will be very potent, regardless of the ONI. I'm not sure how that is lost on him. We all miss the boat sometimes....lord knows you have all seen it happened to me, but the key is to grow from it. DT on 7/10: La Niña is not likely. CPC prediction center 1 day later: 79% chance of La Nina conditions during November-January. Yeah, im going with the CPC prediction center on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 I don’t think things look all that bad for us. The guys dooming and glooming over in the ENSO thread have valid reasons to be pessimistic, but they also live hundreds of miles south of us. There is a world where they get fucked by the Nina and storm after storm goes north and they rain, while we get a good to very good winter. 2007-2008 is a good example of this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 10 hours ago, George001 said: I don’t think things look all that bad for us. The guys dooming and glooming over in the ENSO thread have valid reasons to be pessimistic, but they also live hundreds of miles south of us. There is a world where they get fucked by the Nina and storm after storm goes north and they rain, while we get a good to very good winter. 2007-2008 is a good example of this. Ninas often are big on gradients, so the north/south difference is even greater than climo. Southern Michigan already averages more than double annual snowfall than southern Ohio, but it wouldn't be odd at all for a Nina winter to see 125% of avg in S MI with 75% of avg in S OH. I assume the same applies in NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 12 hours ago, George001 said: I don’t think things look all that bad for us. The guys dooming and glooming over in the ENSO thread have valid reasons to be pessimistic, but they also live hundreds of miles south of us. There is a world where they get fucked by the Nina and storm after storm goes north and they rain, while we get a good to very good winter. 2007-2008 is a good example of this. Weak La Nina would be great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 13 Author Share Posted July 13 17 hours ago, George001 said: I don’t think things look all that bad for us. The guys dooming and glooming over in the ENSO thread have valid reasons to be pessimistic, but they also live hundreds of miles south of us. There is a world where they get fucked by the Nina and storm after storm goes north and they rain, while we get a good to very good winter. 2007-2008 is a good example of this. I agree...it doesn't look good, but it will probably be better than last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree...it doesn't look good, but it will probably be better than last year. Gun to head, if I was grading what I am expecting to happen from a scale of 1 (ratter) to 10 (2014-2015) for this winter, I’m thinking around a 6.5 for my area as of right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 13 Author Share Posted July 13 2 hours ago, George001 said: Gun to head, if I was grading what I am expecting to happen from a scale of 1 (ratter) to 10 (2014-2015) for this winter, I’m thinking around a 6.5 for my area as of right now. I'd say 4.5...still early, though...see what the tropics do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 LolSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 That post made me look at the seasonal models. I'm rather shocked they depict N and perhaps a little BN temps for a chunk of winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 15 Author Share Posted July 15 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: That post made me look at the seasonal models. I'm rather shocked they depict N and perhaps a little BN temps for a chunk of winter. Man, it triggers the shit out of me that so many SNE climo sites are AWOL for 1995-1996....my god, what a travesty. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterSnow Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 It's farrr too early to project anything, but gosh I hope that New England (very much including where I am in CT!) get an actual winter. Coming up from the south, it would be my first actual winter in forever and it's very important to me! Hit me with your hardest, NE. Make me regret ever wishing for this. lol. My mental health is so tied to having actual four seasons, which is one reason I left the south because winters down there are so pathetic and were just getting more and more pathetic. I want a winter that actually makes me appreciate Spring for the first time in decades. I need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 54 minutes ago, Harmonie said: It's farrr too early to project anything, but gosh I hope that New England (very much including where I am in CT!) get an actual winter. Coming up from the south, it would be my first actual winter in forever and it's very important to me! Hit me with your hardest, NE. Make me regret ever wishing for this. lol. My mental health is so tied to having actual four seasons, which is one reason I left the south because winters down there are so pathetic and were just getting more and more pathetic. I want a winter that actually makes me appreciate Spring for the first time in decades. I need it. May need to move to Stowe VT lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: May need to move to Stowe VT Saguenay, PQ lol. Fixed your post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 It's farrr too early to project anything, but gosh I hope that New England (very much including where I am in CT!) get an actual winter. Coming up from the south, it would be my first actual winter in forever and it's very important to me! Hit me with your hardest, NE. Make me regret ever wishing for this. lol. My mental health is so tied to having actual four seasons, which is one reason I left the south because winters down there are so pathetic and were just getting more and more pathetic. I want a winter that actually makes me appreciate Spring for the first time in decades. I need it.As a former South Carolina resident who currently lives in Vermont...Beware the monkey paw known as Murphy Law... karma is no joke if most of us lose power with temps below zero from a blizzard.Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 On 7/13/2024 at 3:46 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree...it doesn't look good, but it will probably be better than last year. Thats what we said last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 18 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Thats what we said last year. And the year before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 10 hours ago, cleetussnow said: Thats what we said last year. 10 hours ago, DavisStraight said: And the year before that. I strongly believe that things will be different this time. As in, we won’t be looking for a couple windows of opportunity in a well AN temp winter. I don’t think this winter will finish more than 1C AN for DJF. A good sports analogy is the Celtics and Clippers. People said the Celtics were soft, chokers etc because they kept imploding in the playoffs. All year long the signs were there that things would be different this time, but people kept saying same old Celtics, and then we all know what happened… Same thing happened to the Clippers, people doubted Harden and said he would fail on the Clippers, but he ended up having a lot of success. Due to the success James Harden had with the Clippers, they gave him a 70 million dollar 2 year extension. The point is, things change. Just because the past 2 winters sucked doesn’t mean we should expect this one to, especially when there are already signs that the ENSO state will be significantly more favorable than either of those winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 The past 2 winters we had a borderline super Nino and a modoki moderate Nina. Last year in particular looked shot months before winter started. A potent east based Nino is the absolute worst possible ENSO configuration in New England. 2nd worst is a potent modoki Nina. With a weaker ENSO this year the other factors will hold more weight, people on these weather forms see Nina and panic but it’s really not justified in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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