Winter 2024-2025 DISC

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 7/9/2024 at 5:53 PM, MJO812 said:

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DT has grown so reductive and archaic in his seasonal analysis. Nevermind that it will assuredly be a La Nina by ONI standards, the cool ENSO Walker Cell will be very potent, regardless of the ONI. I'm not sure how that is lost on him.

We all miss the boat sometimes....lord knows you have all seen it happened to me, but the key is to grow from it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 7/10/2024 at 11:56 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Fell free to beat me senseless with a pillow full of s, but here is a composite of the updated CSU ACE forecast analog seasons...minus 2020, which isn't included on the older data set.

Here is 2020:

 

 

 

 

 

I think a 2020 like season a reasonable hope for this season.

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[CoastalWx]

  On 7/8/2024 at 9:45 PM, qg_omega said:

We roast

 

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I'm out. 

[512high]

  On 7/10/2024 at 2:21 PM, CoastalWx said:

I'm out. 

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What? Scooter knows better....., its only JULY! You, Tip, Omega(and others) maybe right, but things can change from now till then, I'm not looking for a blockbuster, but anything better then last winter would be fine with me. My total was about 31.5" in fact I think Ray got a tad more then that!

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 7/10/2024 at 7:49 PM, 512high said:

What? Scooter knows better....., its only JULY! You, Tip, Omega(and others) maybe right, but things can change from now till then, I'm not looking for a blockbuster, but anything better then last winter would be fine with me. My total was about 31.5" in fact I think Ray got a tad more then that!

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I had 34.25"...largely due to lucking out Jan 7.

[CoastalWx]

  On 7/10/2024 at 7:49 PM, 512high said:

What? Scooter knows better....., its only JULY! You, Tip, Omega(and others) maybe right, but things can change from now till then, I'm not looking for a blockbuster, but anything better then last winter would be fine with me. My total was about 31.5" in fact I think Ray got a tad more then that!

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I'm all set going through 6 months of Autumn again. You have no idea how bad the last two winters were mentally for me. It was so fucking depressing. The only thing keeping me going is the fact that stats say it can only get better.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 7/11/2024 at 12:34 PM, CoastalWx said:

I'm all set going through 6 months of Autumn again. You have no idea how bad the last two winters were mentally for me. It was so fucking depressing. The only thing keeping me going is the fact that stats say it can only get better.

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I think this year will be better than the last two just based on shear probability, regardless of how bad things look in the grander scheme.

[CoastalWx]

  On 7/11/2024 at 1:10 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think this year will be better than the last two just based on shear probability, regardless of how the thing look in the grander scheme.

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Yeah I'm rolling the dice based on that. Will be closing in on 3 years without a storm of 4". 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 7/10/2024 at 7:49 PM, 512high said:

What? Scooter knows better....., its only JULY! You, Tip, Omega(and others) maybe right, but things can change from now till then, I'm not looking for a blockbuster, but anything better then last winter would be fine with me. My total was about 31.5" in fact I think Ray got a tad more then that!

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That's exactly what I ended up with 31.5"

[brooklynwx99]

  On 7/11/2024 at 12:34 PM, CoastalWx said:

I'm all set going through 6 months of Autumn again. You have no idea how bad the last two winters were mentally for me. It was so fucking depressing. The only thing keeping me going is the fact that stats say it can only get better.

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speaking of stats, I think part of it is also just crushing regression to the mean. there were many winters with big coastals (2014-15 being the prime example) and I think we're crashing back down to offset those years. CC plays a part, of course, but I think stats are just as big of a factor

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 7/11/2024 at 6:11 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

speaking of stats, I think part of it is also just crushing regression to the mean. there were many winters with big coastals (2014-15 being the prime example) and I think we're crashing back down to offset those years. CC plays a part, of course, but I think stats are just as big of a factor

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This is what I said in the main ENSO thread....even independent of CC, one had to expect this decade to take a hit after the run we just went on.

[ineedsnow]

  On 7/11/2024 at 2:58 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I'm rolling the dice based on that. Will be closing in on 3 years without a storm of 4". 

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That's horrible. They haven't been bad here.. we got lucky with a few storms

[George001]

  On 7/10/2024 at 11:16 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

DT has grown so reductive and archaic in his seasonal analysis. Nevermind that it will assuredly be a La Nina by ONI standards, the cool ENSO Walker Cell will be very potent, regardless of the ONI. I'm not sure how that is lost on him.

We all miss the boat sometimes....lord knows you have all seen it happened to me, but the key is to grow from it.

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DT on 7/10: La Niña is not likely.

CPC prediction center 1 day later: 79% chance of La Nina conditions during November-January.

Yeah, im going with the CPC prediction center on this one.

[George001]

I don’t think things look all that bad for us. The guys dooming and glooming over in the ENSO thread have valid reasons to be pessimistic, but they also live hundreds of miles south of us. There is a world where they get fucked by the Nina and storm after storm goes north and they rain, while we get a good to very good winter. 2007-2008 is a good example of this.

[michsnowfreak]

  On 7/13/2024 at 2:25 AM, George001 said:

I don’t think things look all that bad for us. The guys dooming and glooming over in the ENSO thread have valid reasons to be pessimistic, but they also live hundreds of miles south of us. There is a world where they get fucked by the Nina and storm after storm goes north and they rain, while we get a good to very good winter. 2007-2008 is a good example of this.

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Ninas often are big on gradients, so the north/south difference is even greater than climo. Southern Michigan already averages more than double annual snowfall than southern Ohio, but it wouldn't be odd at all for a Nina winter to see 125% of avg in S MI with 75% of avg in S OH. I assume the same applies in NE

[MJO812]

  On 7/13/2024 at 2:25 AM, George001 said:

I don’t think things look all that bad for us. The guys dooming and glooming over in the ENSO thread have valid reasons to be pessimistic, but they also live hundreds of miles south of us. There is a world where they get fucked by the Nina and storm after storm goes north and they rain, while we get a good to very good winter. 2007-2008 is a good example of this.

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Weak La Nina would be great 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 7/13/2024 at 2:25 AM, George001 said:

I don’t think things look all that bad for us. The guys dooming and glooming over in the ENSO thread have valid reasons to be pessimistic, but they also live hundreds of miles south of us. There is a world where they get fucked by the Nina and storm after storm goes north and they rain, while we get a good to very good winter. 2007-2008 is a good example of this.

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I agree...it doesn't look good, but it will probably be better than last year.

[George001]

  On 7/13/2024 at 7:46 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree...it doesn't look good, but it will probably be better than last year.

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Gun to head, if I was grading what I am expecting to happen from a scale of 1 (ratter) to 10 (2014-2015) for this winter, I’m thinking around a 6.5 for my area as of right now. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 7/13/2024 at 8:03 PM, George001 said:

Gun to head, if I was grading what I am expecting to happen from a scale of 1 (ratter) to 10 (2014-2015) for this winter, I’m thinking around a 6.5 for my area as of right now. 

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I'd say 4.5...still early, though...see what the tropics do.

[Prismshine Productions]

Lol

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[CoastalWx]

That post made me look at the seasonal models. I'm rather shocked they depict N and perhaps a little BN temps for a chunk of winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 7/15/2024 at 1:52 PM, CoastalWx said:

That post made me look at the seasonal models. I'm rather shocked they depict N and perhaps a little BN temps for a chunk of winter. 

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Man, it triggers the shit out of me that so many SNE climo sites are AWOL for 1995-1996....my god, what a travesty.

[WinterSnow]

It's farrr too early to project anything, but gosh I hope that New England (very much including where I am in CT!) get an actual winter. Coming up from the south, it would be my first actual winter in forever and it's very important to me!

Hit me with your hardest, NE. Make me regret ever wishing for this. lol. My mental health is so tied to having actual four seasons, which is one reason I left the south because winters down there are so pathetic and were just getting more and more pathetic. I want a winter that actually makes me appreciate Spring for the first time in decades. I need it.

[CoastalWx]

  On 7/15/2024 at 4:40 PM, Harmonie said:

It's farrr too early to project anything, but gosh I hope that New England (very much including where I am in CT!) get an actual winter. Coming up from the south, it would be my first actual winter in forever and it's very important to me!

Hit me with your hardest, NE. Make me regret ever wishing for this. lol. My mental health is so tied to having actual four seasons, which is one reason I left the south because winters down there are so pathetic and were just getting more and more pathetic. I want a winter that actually makes me appreciate Spring for the first time in decades. I need it.

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May need to move to Stowe VT lol. 

[mreaves]

  On 7/15/2024 at 5:34 PM, CoastalWx said:

May need to move to Stowe VT  Saguenay, PQ lol. 

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Fixed your post.

[Prismshine Productions]

  On 7/15/2024 at 4:40 PM, Harmonie said:

It's farrr too early to project anything, but gosh I hope that New England (very much including where I am in CT!) get an actual winter. Coming up from the south, it would be my first actual winter in forever and it's very important to me!
Hit me with your hardest, NE. Make me regret ever wishing for this. lol. My mental health is so tied to having actual four seasons, which is one reason I left the south because winters down there are so pathetic and were just getting more and more pathetic. I want a winter that actually makes me appreciate Spring for the first time in decades. I need it.

As a former South Carolina resident who currently lives in Vermont...


Beware the monkey paw known as Murphy Law... karma is no joke if most of us lose power with temps below zero from a blizzard.

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[cleetussnow]

  On 7/13/2024 at 7:46 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree...it doesn't look good, but it will probably be better than last year.

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Thats what we said last year.  

[DavisStraight]

  On 7/15/2024 at 10:38 PM, cleetussnow said:

Thats what we said last year.  

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And the year before that.

[George001]

  On 7/15/2024 at 10:38 PM, cleetussnow said:

Thats what we said last year.  

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  On 7/15/2024 at 10:56 PM, DavisStraight said:

And the year before that.

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I strongly believe that things will be different this time. As in, we won’t be looking for a couple windows of opportunity in a well AN temp winter. I don’t think this winter will finish more than 1C AN for DJF.

A good sports analogy is the Celtics and Clippers. People said the Celtics were soft, chokers etc because they kept imploding in the playoffs. All year long the signs were there that things would be different this time, but people kept saying same old Celtics, and then we all know what happened… Same thing happened to the Clippers, people doubted Harden and said he would fail on the Clippers, but he ended up having a lot of success. Due to the success James Harden had with the Clippers, they gave him a 70 million dollar 2 year extension. The point is, things change. Just because the past 2 winters sucked doesn’t mean we should expect this one to, especially when there are already signs that the ENSO state will be significantly more favorable than either of those winters. 

[George001]

The past 2 winters we had a borderline super Nino and a modoki moderate Nina. Last year in particular looked shot months before winter started. A potent east based Nino is the absolute worst possible ENSO configuration in New England. 2nd worst is a potent modoki Nina. With a weaker ENSO this year the other factors will hold more weight, people on these weather forms see Nina and panic but it’s really not justified in New England.