Winter 2024-2025 DISC

[rclab]

On 6/11/2024 at 5:35 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

In 500 million years the sun will be shining 10% hotter than it is now ... soon after to begin consuming helium instead of hydrogen and expanding.  In 2 billion years it will almost entirely be consuming helium and will have expanded half way to the orbit of Mercury ... at which time the earth's atmosphere and ocean will be getting removed ... as the power of irradiance and solar wind mechanics will overpower the magnetic field of the Earth.  By 5 billion years, the sun will have swollen to engulf the orbit of Venus.  The sunrise and sunset will occupy the entire eastern and western horizons, shining over a cinder planet cooked to the brink of melted rock.   Not long after that ... the sun's out layers will briefly ( in cosmic time scales ) swell to also envelop the Earth... if the Earth survives the million years of electromagnetic bath, it will end up eternally trapped in orbit around a dead white dwarf star - with no history that life ever existed on this world.  It's also possible that the Earth will have disintegrated altogether.  

 

Good morning Tip. Sobering, even with the time frames involved. The near future, though uncertain, I pray doesn’t include a last post photo from the postage stamp, of my vintage mercury thermometer. As always ….

(photo credit: Twilight Zone episode, Midnight Sun)

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning Tip. Sobering, even with the time frames involved. The near future, though uncertain, I pray doesn’t include a last post photo from the postage stamp, of my vintage mercury thermometer. As always ….

(photo credit: Twilight Zone episode, Midnight Sun)

 

Good episode...love TWZ. I am camped out watching that every NYE and NYD.

[Prismshine Productions]

Good morning Tip. Sobering, even with the time frames involved. The near future, though uncertain, I pray doesn’t include a last post photo from the postage stamp, of my vintage mercury thermometer. As always ….
(photo credit: Twilight Zone episode, Midnight Sun)
 

That Twilight Zone episode came to mind when reading the discussion

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[Great Snow 1717]

2 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

That Twilight Zone episode came to mind when reading the discussion

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This Outer Limits episode came to mind..

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The jet stream has really lifted north this year, and the last few years. That doesn't mean we can't get a cold Winter.. Kansas City hit a windchill of -35F in January for the Chiefs playoff game, so you can get cold bursts, but the percentages and overall, start shifting heavily in the direction of warm when you see things so far north, early in the season and at this time of year..

Since we are going to have one of the warmest December-June's on record in the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS, I made a list of 19 best analog matches since 1948, and found actually a strong correlation for next Winter's temperatures: 

Dec-Jun analogs: https://ibb.co/gZkPmqk

Following Dec-Feb (scale is almost the same! for 19/75 years.. one I picked and chose from, the other was a +12 month roll forward! (~20% of total years included)). https://ibb.co/YR3kwmm

I made the primary factor broad-CONUS based above or below average temperatures, so if there was a strong opposite anomaly somewhere in the country, I didn't use that year.  https://ibb.co/j5qjkJV

[Years were (+): 1948, 52, 90, 97, 98, 99, 2001, 05, 11, 15, 16, 19, 22. 

(-) years: 1970, 77, 78, 81, 83, 92.]

[Prismshine Productions]

The jet stream has really lifted north this year, and the last few years. That doesn't mean we can't get a cold Winter.. Kansas City hit a windchill of -35F in January for the Chiefs playoff game, so you can get cold bursts, but the percentages and overall, start shifting heavily in the direction of warm when you see things so far north, early in the season and at this time of year..

Since we are going to have one of the warmest December-June's on record in the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS, I made a list of 19 best analog matches since 1948, and found actually a strong correlation for next Winter's temperatures: 

Dec-Jun analogs: https://ibb.co/gZkPmqk

Following Dec-Feb (scale is almost the same! for 19/75 years.. one I picked and chose from, the other was a +12 month roll forward! (~20% of total years included)). https://ibb.co/YR3kwmm

I made the primary factor broad-CONUS based above or below average temperatures, so if there was a strong opposite anomaly somewhere in the country, I didn't use that year.  https://ibb.co/j5qjkJV

[Years were (+): 1948, 52, 90, 97, 98, 99, 2001, 05, 11, 15, 16, 19, 22. 

(-) years: 1970, 77, 78, 81, 83, 92.]

Aka no snow this year

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[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Aka no snow this year

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The chances are definitely higher for that outcome. 

La Nina's aren't so bad for you guys.. there is a near "0" correlation with temps, going back to 1948, using that variable alone. 

-PDO's are what's bad as it has near a +0.3 correlation with warmer temps.

Solar Max correlates with +NAO, which is a warmer pattern, too, although that connection is not exact. 

If we go +QBO, that coupled with La Nina enhances +AO conditions, making that a bad pattern for you, vs La Nina's that can be a good pattern, when not coupled with +QBO. 

The roll forward research is showing a pretty strong signal though. It's not surprising because there is more of a "flat global jet, lifted north" right now, so you would think the same kind of thing would continue, with no major fluctuations occurring in the pattern lately.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The jet stream has really lifted north this year, and the last few years. That doesn't mean we can't get a cold Winter.. Kansas City hit a windchill of -35F in January for the Chiefs playoff game, so you can get cold bursts, but the percentages and overall, start shifting heavily in the direction of warm when you see things so far north, early in the season and at this time of year..

Since we are going to have one of the warmest December-June's on record in the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS, I made a list of 19 best analog matches since 1948, and found actually a strong correlation for next Winter's temperatures: 

Dec-Jun analogs: https://ibb.co/gZkPmqk

Following Dec-Feb (scale is almost the same! for 19/75 years.. one I picked and chose from, the other was a +12 month roll forward! (~20% of total years included)). https://ibb.co/YR3kwmm

I made the primary factor broad-CONUS based above or below average temperatures, so if there was a strong opposite anomaly somewhere in the country, I didn't use that year.  https://ibb.co/j5qjkJV

[Years were (+): 1948, 52, 90, 97, 98, 99, 2001, 05, 11, 15, 16, 19, 22. 

(-) years: 1970, 77, 78, 81, 83, 92.]

A lot of those seasons weren't awful for snowfall in SNE...but year, should be warm (shock)...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Quick ENSO update and some early musings on where we may be headed this winter.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/06/moderate-impact-la-nina-remains-likely.html

 

[NorEastermass128]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Sweet. Another non-winter on tap. I’m beginning to forget what a real winter looks like at this point. 

[512high]

3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Sweet. Another non-winter on tap. I’m beginning to forget what a real winter looks like at this point. 

I hope your wrong, but we have a ways to go, things can still change.

[512high]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Ray Happy Summer, thanks for the updates, however, I feel its still early, I hope things change as we get close to "Go Time".

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 6/24/2024 at 8:25 PM, NorEastermass128 said:

Sweet. Another non-winter on tap. I’m beginning to forget what a real winter looks like at this point. 

I wouldn't say that yet...the mean doesn't look pretty, but we may have a window or two.

[Prismshine Productions]

Interesting... weak Nina ftw long term?

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[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Interesting... weak Nina ftw long term?

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I don't really think that it matters, as the hemisphere has been so locked into cool ENSO mode over the course of the last several years.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

On 6/24/2024 at 9:18 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't say that yet...the mean doesn't look pretty, but we may have a window or two.

Oh…that’s reassuring. Have pins and needles full of anticipation. 

[MJO812]

Will I see snow this winter ?

[weathafella]

18 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Will I see snow this winter ?

If you're one of the few left without a frost free freezer, yes.

[George001]

I’m on board for a good winter from NYC north based on the recent trends in guidance. I was pessimistic a couple months ago, but things have changed. There are still some red flags, but I’ll gladly roll the dice with a weak east based or basin wide Nina.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, George001 said:

I’m on board for a good winter from NYC north based on the recent trends in guidance. I was pessimistic a couple months ago, but things have changed. There are still some red flags, but I’ll gladly roll the dice with a weak east based or basin wide Nina.

I think we would do okay in this...that looks servicable enough to provide chances with the with the lower heights in Canada and the PV elongated in the general direction of the northeast.

[MJO812]

21 hours ago, George001 said:

I’m on board for a good winter from NYC north based on the recent trends in guidance. I was pessimistic a couple months ago, but things have changed. There are still some red flags, but I’ll gladly roll the dice with a weak east based or basin wide Nina.

Miller Bs

SNE will do well 

[brooklynwx99]

On 7/5/2024 at 12:23 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think we would do okay in this...that looks servicable enough to provide chances with the with the lower heights in Canada and the PV elongated in the general direction of the northeast.

the thing with Nina is that you can have that Aleutian ridge break more poleward and give us legit cold air into Canada. Ninos have no such benefit

if we do end up with a more east based event, I’ll be a lot more optimistic, as at least we could see the ridging move over AK. as of now, I’m still expecting a pretty lame winter from NYC south. Ninas can be quite fun for you guys, though. especially up by you

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the thing with Nina is that you can have that Aleutian ridge break more poleward and give us legit cold air into Canada. Ninos have no such benefit

if we do end up with a more east based event, I’ll be a lot more optimistic, as at least we could see the ridging move over AK. as of now, I’m still expecting a pretty lame winter from NYC south. Ninas can be quite fun for you guys, though. especially up by you

Yea, east-based events tend to have more poleward Aleutian ridging....but even without that, you can still do okay if things break right. 2007-2008 had a pretty flat ridge.

 

[NoCORH4L]

Warm, wet, and a couple of slop storms. We all know it's true. 

[qg_omega]

We roast

 

[Typhoon Tip]

15 hours ago, qg_omega said:

We roast

 

Buds in February ?

[MJO812]

[DavisStraight]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Buds in February ?

Maybe I should plant orange trees.

[WxWatcher007]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Guess he didn’t read pgs 24-36?

[SJonesWX]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Whatever that guy says, the opposite will happen