Spring 2024 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mississaugasnow]

  On 5/12/2024 at 7:32 AM, rainsucks said:

AI models suggesting we see some legit heat towards the final week of the month. Either way, looks seasonable to above average for the most part.

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Toronto has yet to hit 75F this year. Hottest its been is 71F 

 

@Snowstorms  @michsnowfreak what would be the best site to see the latest Toronto has gone without seeing 75F? April was also the 2nd rainiest month since 1840 haha. Just stuck in neutral in winter and now spring. 

[rainsucks]

  On 5/12/2024 at 2:51 PM, mississaugasnow said:

Toronto has yet to hit 75F this year. Hottest its been is 71F 

 

@Snowstorms  @michsnowfreak what would be the best site to see the latest Toronto has gone without seeing 75F? April was also the 2nd rainiest month since 1840 haha. Just stuck in neutral in winter and now spring. 

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Still doesn't change the fact that it's been one of the warmest springs on record for this sub as a whole, with the mild (albeit on the wet side) pattern looking to continue for the foreseeable future.

[mississaugasnow]

  On 5/12/2024 at 6:23 PM, rainsucks said:

Still doesn't change the fact that it's been one of the warmest springs on record for this sub as a whole, with the mild (albeit on the wet side) pattern looking to continue for the foreseeable future.

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Not debating that. Also been warm here but more with the overnight lows. Similar to last summer which was above average but more because the lows not the highs. 

 

The above average precipitation and cloud cover is definitely helping that over here with the overnight lows. 

[A-L-E-K]

looks warm and wet

blessed

[frostfern]

Rain underperforming up here.  Nearby pond water level is still low.

[Lightning]

  On 5/14/2024 at 2:06 AM, frostfern said:

Rain underperforming up here.  Nearby pond water level is still low.

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Yeah this system was very disappointing.  Hopefully storms will shift our way in the coming weeks.

[frostfern]

  On 5/14/2024 at 11:44 AM, Lightning said:

Yeah this system was very disappointing.  Hopefully storms will shift our way in the coming weeks.

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Yea.  I wasn't able to chase the excitement that hit the southern part of the state last week and it's been zzzzz IMBY lately.  Low 60s and clouds.  Not much real rain or thunder.  Thankfully not cold, but dreary nonetheless.

[Lightning]

  On 5/14/2024 at 11:13 PM, frostfern said:

Yea.  I wasn't able to chase the excitement that hit the southern part of the state last week and it's been zzzzz IMBY lately.  Low 60s and clouds.  Not much real rain or thunder.  Thankfully not cold, but dreary nonetheless.

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The Aurora have made up for my weather boredom.  I am ready for Tstorm season to begin.  I didn't chase them as it was looking good for them to come my way but sadly I was mistaken.  Oh well plenty of storms to come in life.

[Stebo]

Leave for my chasecation tomorrow, things looking pretty solid for the medium and long range in the plains and midwest. Pretty excited.

[Malacka11]

  On 5/16/2024 at 2:34 PM, Stebo said:

Leave for my chasecation tomorrow, things looking pretty solid for the medium and long range in the plains and midwest. Pretty excited.

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Keep us posted (pun intended)

[Stebo]

  On 5/16/2024 at 2:52 PM, Malacka11 said:

Keep us posted (pun intended)

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Will do, I am expecting to be in KS by Sunday and then who knows how it evolves from there.

[outflow]

  On 5/16/2024 at 2:34 PM, Stebo said:

Leave for my chasecation tomorrow, things looking pretty solid for the medium and long range in the plains and midwest. Pretty excited.

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You know something will happen locally while your gone... gl

[Stebo]

  On 5/16/2024 at 3:42 PM, outflow said:

You know something will happen locally while your gone... gl

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Always happens, I have come back to a day of severe weather twice too.

[frostfern]

  On 5/15/2024 at 2:14 AM, Lightning said:

The Aurora have made up for my weather boredom.  I am ready for Tstorm season to begin.  I didn't chase them as it was looking good for them to come my way but sadly I was mistaken.  Oh well plenty of storms to come in life.

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It wasn’t ideal for chasing.  The clouds were so thick and low it was hard to make things out.  Add tons of trees in the area.  Just too risky.  I rather chase lower end stuff here, like just a good lightning show over the lake.

[rainsucks]

so bad

[IWXwx]

  On 5/11/2024 at 9:20 AM, Spartman said:

Time to stick a fork in May?

 

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Temperature Forecast Fail

[TheClimateChanger]

  On 5/20/2024 at 12:08 PM, IWXwx said:

Temperature Forecast Fail

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7th warmest May on record to date at Dayton, with very warm weather forecast over the next week or so. Plenty of room to climb on this list.

Still solidly in first place on the year to date, more than a degree warmer than 2012.

[Powerball]

  On 5/20/2024 at 12:08 PM, IWXwx said:

Temperature Forecast Fail

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They did at least get the precipitation forecast right, lol...

[michsnowfreak]

  On 5/12/2024 at 2:51 PM, mississaugasnow said:

Toronto has yet to hit 75F this year. Hottest its been is 71F 

 

@Snowstorms  @michsnowfreak what would be the best site to see the latest Toronto has gone without seeing 75F? April was also the 2nd rainiest month since 1840 haha. Just stuck in neutral in winter and now spring. 

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Im not sure, its not as easy for me to find Canadian data as US data lol.

[TheClimateChanger]

  On 5/12/2024 at 2:51 PM, mississaugasnow said:

Toronto has yet to hit 75F this year. Hottest its been is 71F 

 

@Snowstorms  @michsnowfreak what would be the best site to see the latest Toronto has gone without seeing 75F? April was also the 2nd rainiest month since 1840 haha. Just stuck in neutral in winter and now spring. 

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Not too uncommon. These are all the years at downtown Toronto in which the first reading of 75F occurred on or after today's date (May 20). The temperature shown is the temperature on the date of the first 75F+ reading. Particularly in the 19th century, it was fairly common for the first 75F reading to hold off until June. 

The latest first 75F+ reading occurred on June 26, 1851, when the mercury climbed to 78F.

[TheClimateChanger]

  On 5/20/2024 at 5:04 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

Not too uncommon. These are all the years at downtown Toronto in which the first reading of 75F occurred on or after today's date (May 20). The temperature shown is the temperature on the date of the first 75F+ reading. Particularly in the 19th century, it was fairly common for the first 75F reading to hold off until June. 

The latest first 75F+ reading occurred on June 26, 1851, when the mercury climbed to 78F.

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Interestingly, there were 5 years in the first 48 years of record in which the first 80F did not occur until July. This implies a historical odds of such an event being a bit more common than 1 in every 10 years. The latest first 80F reading at Toronto is July 16, 1851, when the mercury climbed to 82F.

[TheClimateChanger]

  On 5/20/2024 at 5:10 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

Interestingly, there were 5 years in the first 48 years of record in which the first 80F did not occur until July. This implies a historical odds of such an event being a bit more common than 1 in every 10 years. The latest first 80F reading at Toronto is July 16, 1851, when the mercury climbed to 82F.

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At Pearson International Airport in more recent years. The first 75F in 2019 occurred on May 23, and in 2020 on May 22. Latest is June 4, 1997.

[mississaugasnow]

  On 5/20/2024 at 5:16 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

At Pearson International Airport in more recent years. The first 75F in 2019 occurred on May 23, and in 2020 on May 22. Latest is June 4, 1997.

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Thanks! Yikes 1981 summer sucked for the longevity. Toronto has also recorded its first 80s the last few days now. 

[Spartman]

From the Mid-Atlantic sub:
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/60238-may-medium-long-range-outlook/?do=findComment&comment=7310446

Models have a cooler start to June with -NAO trying to develop.. 

If the ridge over the Davis Strait ends up verifying, that would be good for my N. Atlantic SST prediction of wintertime NAO state, but still a long ways to go (the index measures through September.)

I also think a ridge is going to try to develop over the West coast through June, then it may work its way to the Midwest by July and August then the east by the end of the Summer.. there is a chance it could come here sooner though,  but GEFS looks troughy through Day 15.. 

June's looking like a write-off

[Floydbuster]

  On 5/28/2024 at 5:34 PM, Spartman said:

From the Mid-Atlantic sub:
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/60238-may-medium-long-range-outlook/?do=findComment&comment=7310446

Models have a cooler start to June with -NAO trying to develop.. 

If the ridge over the Davis Strait ends up verifying, that would be good for my N. Atlantic SST prediction of wintertime NAO state, but still a long ways to go (the index measures through September.)

I also think a ridge is going to try to develop over the West coast through June, then it may work its way to the Midwest by July and August then the east by the end of the Summer.. there is a chance it could come here sooner though,  but GEFS looks troughy through Day 15.. 

June's looking like a write-off

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Here's hoping after all the devastation the midwest has seen, and we here in Ohio have been slammed quite a bit. 

[SolidIcewx]

  On 5/28/2024 at 6:07 PM, Floydbuster said:

Here's hoping after all the devastation the midwest has seen, and we here in Ohio have been slammed quite a bit. 

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A lul in activity before we get the summer ridge riders rolling through 

[King James]

  On 5/28/2024 at 6:07 PM, Floydbuster said:

Here's hoping after all the devastation the midwest has seen, and we here in Ohio have been slammed quite a bit. 

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Some of us need rain brudda. Been very dry in my parts the last two weeks 

[rainsucks]

This summer (and likely autumn) is going to be a literal torch fest for the entire country (except Alaska), and it's actually starting to concern me. Even without factoring climate change into it, the state of tropical forcing and internal variability itself favors heat to a rather extreme degree this year. Enjoy the next few weeks because it's looking ugly afterwards. Worth noting that 1988 happens to be one of the better analogs for this summer, which is rather unfortunate as a modern 1988 regime would be potentially catastrophic.

[A-L-E-K]

extended looks cool and beautiful, we're good

[King James]

  On 5/29/2024 at 12:58 AM, rainsucks said:

This summer (and likely autumn) is going to be a literal torch fest for the entire country (except Alaska), and it's actually starting to concern me. Even without factoring climate change into it, the state of tropical forcing and internal variability itself favors heat to a rather extreme degree this year. Enjoy the next few weeks because it's looking ugly afterwards. Worth noting that 1988 happens to be one of the better analogs for this summer, which is rather unfortunate as a modern 1988 regime would be potentially catastrophic.

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Let’s go, a hot humid summer sounds awesome.