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Spring 2024 Medium/Long Range Discussion


IWXwx
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  • 3 weeks later...
On 4/15/2024 at 6:18 AM, A-L-E-K said:

another brief cool down before real sustained warmth?

Late April in the past usually signals sustained spring like weather. I typically will start planting then unless an unusual cold spell is forecast. Some wait till after Mother's Day but that's conservative.

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GEFS 15-day

The drought is gradually being chipped away around here.  Last summer we peaked at "exceptional".  We dropped to "extreme" for the winter.  Last week we dropped to "severe".  The next two weeks could eliminate the remaining "extreme" drought in Iowa and drop us down to "moderate".

image.thumb.png.c497835d9c4178df86f7988b160f85b9.png

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I really haven't had time to get into any medium or long range thoughts for quite a while, but...

If you're into hyper-active patterns with consistent t'storm/severe t'storm potential and consistently warmer temps, the pattern we are sliding into is for you. One thing to note, though, is that the western/southwestern half of the sub-forum on into the Central US may be favored for the aforementioned.

ENS are in agreement on consistent troughing into the PAC NW and potentially deeper into the West Coast, which should allow for a parade of disturbances/storm systems to eject across the Central US. This all begins with the first storm system coming up to end this week, and it may very well continue right on into the first full week of May.

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1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Model consistency is very low next week and beyond.  They are showing everything from continued active to blocked-up cold and dry, with wild swings from run to run.

I really don't understand what's tripping up the models. Can't ever recall this type of inconsistency before, very strange.

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6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

extended looks good

yeah, what looked like a cool shot only ended up being slightly below avg this weekend.  Even with NW flow and an E trough in the extended all we can manage is slightly below average 850 temps on a few days

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