Spring 2024 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[IWXwx]

Starting this thread to honor Stebo. I don't really take much stock in these maps other than the 8-14 Day, but I'm noticing a pattern here:

[A-L-E-K]

hard to complain too much about all that^

 

*assuming we've all punted on flake

[CheeselandSkies]

5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

hard to complain too much about all that^

 

*assuming we've all punted on flake

Would like to see more of the AA precip chances extend into WI/northern IA/MN/SD, but I'll take EC. +temp/-precip is no bueno.

[Stebo]

Thanks for starting the thread 

[A-L-E-K]

we'll be back

 

[nwohweather]

Sheesh, mid 70's on March 4th is a heck of a way to kick off Spring. 

[A-L-E-K]

looking seasonal to mild, not going to complain 

[A-L-E-K]

 

 

[andyhb]

Blocking pattern looks to setup beyond mid month given the ongoing significant SSW and prolonged disruption/decay of the stratospheric PV (perhaps the final warming). Would think moderation of some of the warmth should occur during that period along with a decrease in severe weather chances.

[rainsucks]

34 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Blocking pattern looks to setup beyond mid month given the ongoing significant SSW and prolonged disruption/decay of the stratospheric PV (perhaps the final warming). Would think moderation of some of the warmth should occur during that period along with a decrease in severe weather chances.

at this point, I'll believe it when I see it. Same exact thing was supposed to occur last month and we all know how that turned out.

[Chicago Storm]

2 hours ago, andyhb said:

Blocking pattern looks to setup beyond mid month given the ongoing significant SSW and prolonged disruption/decay of the stratospheric PV (perhaps the final warming). Would think moderation of some of the warmth should occur during that period along with a decrease in severe weather chances.

It most definitely is the demise/final warming of the SPV, no question on that at all.

[CheeselandSkies]

2 hours ago, andyhb said:

Blocking pattern looks to setup beyond mid month given the ongoing significant SSW and prolonged disruption/decay of the stratospheric PV (perhaps the final warming). Would think moderation of some of the warmth should occur during that period along with a decrease in severe weather chances.

Of course.

[Lightning]

14 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Of course.

Wouldn't that be a kick in the pants.  

[rainsucks]

MJO really doesn't support it, but we'll see.

[nwohweather]

Hard to not declare Winter finished with at this point

[Lightning]

6 hours ago, rainsucks said:

MJO really doesn't support it, but we'll see.

What this doesn't scream winter to you 

[A-L-E-K]

OP euro coming in warm for next week

[A-L-E-K]

extended looking seasonal, hope blocking keeps worst cold east

[michsnowfreak]

Looks like one of those classic strong nino cold spells to welcome the spring equinox 

[roardog]

All the ensembles are showing strong ridging in western Canada and into Alaska in the medium range. If that’s correct, it will release unseasonably cold air into the eastern half of the US regardless of what the models actually show for temp deviations right now. The euro ensemble mean actually shows around 7 or 8 degrees below average at 850 just after day 10 in the Great Lakes. That’s impressive for an ensemble mean. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Build Back Better Winters said:

Meh, doesn’t look very cold though, slightly below average at best.

I mean it's too early to tell. But the 850s on all ensemble means are impressive, and that will make its way to the surface to at least an extent. By no means am I implying this is midwinter deep cold, but unseasonably cold weather on the lap of spring after a mild winter is a classic strong nino signature in this region, so the fact that the models are showing this is no surprise. Before the cold hits however, another warm spell looks to hit next week after a brief weekend cool down here.

[rainsucks]

you can’t really ignore the MJO imo. phase 6 is quite a strong warm signal for this time of year even when taking into account the ENSO. don’t really care what that awful new AI model is showing at hour 336 or whatever.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Long range makes me think it’s the return of the Dust Bowl.

I wonder what the record is for latest into the new year before Minneapolis surpasses 1” of precipitation for the year. 

[Baum]

15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I mean it's too early to tell. But the 850s on all ensemble means are impressive, and that will make its way to the surface to at least an extent. By no means am I implying this is midwinter deep cold, but unseasonably cold weather on the lap of spring after a mild winter is a classic strong nino signature in this region, so the fact that the models are showing this is no surprise. Before the cold hits however, another warm spell looks to hit next week after a brief weekend cool down here.

who wants it? But inevitable. Hopefully, short and moderate at worst.

[Geoboy645]

2 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Long range makes me think it’s the return of the Dust Bowl.

I wonder what the record is for latest into the new year before Minneapolis surpasses 1” of precipitation for the year. 

According to Xmacis, looks like April 6th, 1912 is the latest Minneapolis crossed the 1" mark for the year. Interestingly enough, that was also a Nino albeit it only got 1.4 instead of 1.8 departure. The difference however is that 1911-1912, especially January 1912, was one of the coldest winters ever for the Midwest. Like Minneapolis averaged a *checks notes* -18.9 departure for the month in January (!). Quite the opposite of this winter to say the least. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Thanks for the info @Geoboy645 not going to get much precipitation with polar air in control. 

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, Baum said:

who wants it? But inevitable. Hopefully, short and moderate at worst.

Im fine with anything other than a torch. No shame in liking the cold when theres others who root for early warmth that just destroys fruit crops. The one thing about weather that IS constant though, is it does what it wants, not what we want lol.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, Geoboy645 said:

According to Xmacis, looks like April 6th, 1912 is the latest Minneapolis crossed the 1" mark for the year. Interestingly enough, that was also a Nino albeit it only got 1.4 instead of 1.8 departure. The difference however is that 1911-1912, especially January 1912, was one of the coldest winters ever for the Midwest. Like Minneapolis averaged a *checks notes* -18.9 departure for the month in January (!). Quite the opposite of this winter to say the least. 

Minneapolis has only had two years on record where less than an inch of precip had fallen thru March. 1958 (strong El Nino) and 1912 (weak el nino). 2024 (strong el nino) could be the 3rd.

[Snowstorms]

On 3/7/2024 at 5:41 PM, roardog said:

All the ensembles are showing strong ridging in western Canada and into Alaska in the medium range. If that’s correct, it will release unseasonably cold air into the eastern half of the US regardless of what the models actually show for temp deviations right now. The euro ensemble mean actually shows around 7 or 8 degrees below average at 850 just after day 10 in the Great Lakes. That’s impressive for an ensemble mean. 

Probably won't last for more than a few days to a week. Models have been advertising a "pattern change" or "cold air" in the medium-long range all winter going back to December and it never came to fruition except for a brief 7-10 day period in mid January. Outside of that, it's been historically warm. I'm not sold on any real pattern change for us right now. Even 2015-16 had more cold periods in JFM than this winter despite an historically warm December. However, early April 2016 was quite cold. 

[rainsucks]

On 3/7/2024 at 6:53 PM, rainsucks said:

you can’t really ignore the MJO imo. phase 6 is quite a strong warm signal for this time of year even when taking into account the ENSO. don’t really care what that awful new AI model is showing at hour 336 or whatever.

from this: 

to this, in just a couple runs: