Carvers Gap Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 10 hours ago, Matthew70 said: I am hoping we get into a wetter pattern soon. The winds are drying out the soil quickly. In NE TN, most La Nina patterns are dry. With the IO and Nina potentially being out of sync, I am not sure what that yields in terms of precip here. It seems like some La Nina patterns have been soakers here, but lately, more dry. I do think the pattern might be much more variable than I had originally thought re: summer. I do think a good chunk of fall and winter will be much AN in terms of temps. I would suspect fall turns very dry. La Nina across our forum can produce quite different results. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 It appears that summer is here. I don't think those Weeklies(which were cool) are gonna work out. Looks warm for the foreseeable future. Summer has started early, and that often means a VERY hot July-October. TRI is only +1.7 but it has felt much warmer than that. Late April to October is likely summer this year. Hope I am wrong on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 Yeah transition into La Nina of course gets rolling first here in SER land. I'll see y'all when football starts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 On 4/29/2024 at 11:35 AM, nrgjeff said: Yeah transition into La Nina of course gets rolling first here in SER land. I'll see y'all when football starts. SER land!!! I like it. We may have to pass this winter by tracking storms in the Mountain West. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 I’m just thankful for the rains to have returned. We needed it here in Middle Tennessee. Let it stay warm with afternoon rain & storms every 3-4 days. I will call it a win! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 TRI finished with about 70-75% of normal rainfall for the month of April and +2.1F. Yesterday morning it rained. When I mowed by midday the moisture was almost gone on the grass. Not good to be BN normal w/ precip during spring. Hopefully, that turns around. Lately, ext LR modeling is really, really struggling IMO. That said, if one just uses ENSO state, wx patterns have been pretty consistent w/ a transition to La Nina. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 It's El Nino with La Nina characteristics. Great Plains too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 So, the cold snap in mid-Jan wiped out my grape vines(entire plant). I just replanted today. They were new, so they were more fragile....but man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: So, the cold snap in mid-Jan wiped out my grape vines(entire plant). I just replanted today. They were new, so they were more fragile....but man. That cold snap did quite a bit of damage to agriculture down here. I’ve noticed several Hollys trees and bushes that seem to be behind putting out leaves. I lost several Craig Myrtle. Even my Cypress tree lost some branches and is slowly putting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 You can just take it to the bank...when I put the warm season plants in my garden, it is going to head for BN temps. Just take it to the bank. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Blizzard warnings in the western Plains of Montana. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Blizzard warnings in the western Plains of Montana. Palisade Tahoe set a record this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Blizzard warnings in the western Plains of Montana. Another foot of snow for the Colorado mountains as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted May 10 Share Posted May 10 MRX just mentioned on social media a chance to view the northern lights. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted May 11 Share Posted May 11 Definitely seeing the northern lights tonight. Pretty amazing. G5 solar storm - it was upgraded I think. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted May 11 Share Posted May 11 Getting some of the Aurora in 5-10 minute bursts at 37 N. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted May 11 Share Posted May 11 Extremely vivid display here. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted May 11 Share Posted May 11 Im blessed to have seen these. Never thought I would. Strange from cicadas to floods to tornadoes to wonderful temps to the northern lights. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Why does the cool stuff happen when we are gone? Lol camera still captured a nice shot though! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 Is that another cool shot on the models for the first of June? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 They are trying. AI versions and weekly products concur. We'll take it! The progression is logical after the series of Plains and Midwest troughs perhaps sets up a little Great Lakes trough. If we're lucky the trough axis would include the Tennessee Valley. Unfortunately it won't last long. I'll enjoy any mild weather we can get, because I'm concerned it'll be a true Southern summer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 Man, it’s HOT!!! Bring on the cold shot!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 Thought I might avoid rain today but it's been storming the last hour or hour and a half. This is going to put me at about 10 inches of rain for the month with probably a good bit more to go by Monday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted May 27 Share Posted May 27 11.69" of Rain for the Month as of 7 AM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted May 27 Share Posted May 27 I thought about putting this in banter, but considering it is a slow time of year, I think this maybe belongs here. For 5 years I have followed a super informative website in western Wyoming. I have shared some of it here from time to time. All that I knew was that he knew his stuff and that he had worked in the storm center in Oklahoma before retiring to western Wyoming. Well, it turns out...he was a a leader in the field of severe weather forecasting. He passed away last week, and I thought that I would share his wikipedia page in his honor. He had issued 5,540 storm warnings by the time he had retired. I am guessing some of you probably knew him. I had no idea. Check out the storms he worked: March 29,1984 Carolinas tornado outbreak. March 12, 1993 Gulf of Mexico to East Coast "Super Storm", including Florida severe weather. March 27, 1994 "Palm Sunday II" southeast U.S. tornado outbreak May 4-10, 2003 Central-Eastern U.S. weeklong sequence of tornado outbreaks and "round-the-clock" severe storms. February 28-March 2, 2007 multi-day southern U.S. tornado outbreak, including the Enterprise, AL tornado on March 1, 2007. February 5-6, 2008 Tennessee and Ohio Valleys "Super Tuesday" tornado outbreak. May 25, 2008 Central U.S. severe weather outbreak including the "Parkersburg, IA" tornado. May 8, 2009 Southern Midwest "Super Derecho". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_E._Hales_Jr.?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR0J8nGPWTzy23qR_N9Nul3QSE8c3rZSnubi1fz4Tr_1ZMLu_r_4UB3Rlm4_aem_AV5RsuAKGTPpBCgxcsRglIpQAWCzgJoJwDMybpDcnLLiSdfrL0w6IvTXnrT1o1X-G9-iqkYTOMmeAL8Vyhhf2ogq 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted May 28 Share Posted May 28 It's been a wet 30 days for most of us and this may be underestimating totals for some areas. The station closest to me is around 11 inches for May with some missing data for one day that it rained. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted May 28 Share Posted May 28 16 hours ago, John1122 said: It's been a wet 30 days for most of us and this may be underestimating totals for some areas. The station closest to me is around 11 inches for May with some missing data for one day that it rained. Yeah, it's way low for here. I discussed this with KMRX several days ago. Basically echoes missing some of the precip and intensity here. I'm at 11.82" for the Month now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 Any delay of the inevitable SER is welcome. Next week looks slightly warmer than normal, but the split flow variety so nothing too brutal. Also more precip. About a third of the way into June, a big ol' bowling ball of an upper low is progged over the Great Lakes with BN heights into the Valley. We've seen that before in June. AI versions of the ensembles concur so that's good. Eventually the Nina influence will rear its ugly head. I'm afraid a back-loaded summer would drag deep into fall. Closing on a positive, the weekly products are not in a rush to set up the SER. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 1 hour ago, nrgjeff said: Any delay of the inevitable SER is welcome. Next week looks slightly warmer than normal, but the split flow variety so nothing too brutal. Also more precip. About a third of the way into June, a big ol' bowling ball of an upper low is progged over the Great Lakes with BN heights into the Valley. We've seen that before in June. AI versions of the ensembles concur so that's good. Eventually the Nina influence will rear its ugly head. I'm afraid a back-loaded summer would drag deep into fall. Closing on a positive, the weekly products are not in a rush to set up the SER. Yeah the past and current pattern moving forward looks really good temp wise and moisture wise. No real heat wave and no drought conditions especially after several in the region has seen 10 to 12 inches in just this one month... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 Maybe this will be a summer wo a summer. Expect the unexpected. Wx is full of surprises lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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