March/ Spring mid-long range

[*Flash*]

4 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah. Also remember 2008 a very warm March that transferred to a very cold early April with heavy Snow Shower's the 8th. March 07 was mild to then a hard late Freeze occured in mid May that killed alot of the Leaves on the Tree's. Likewise, after the very mild Winter of 01-02 late Season Freezes occurred on the 22nd and 23rd of May with Temps recorded in the upper 20's. Needless to say, foliage and vegetation damage occured. 

      

March 2007 was very warm, akin to 2012. A year later in 2008, we had a notable snow event March 7-8. About half a foot in my current locale! One of those winters saved by the bell at the last window of opportunity. 

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, *Flash* said:

March 2007 was very warm, akin to 2012. A year later in 2008, we had a notable snow event March 7-8. About half a foot in my current locale! One of those winters saved by the bell at the last window of opportunity. 

Yeah, I think the 2008 warmth was late March. I lost my Records so going on my antique memory. I first thought the April snow was 07 then thought 08. So, probably was 07. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6z GFS looking suppressed by N. stream troughs. 

Whatever that AIFS Euro is, doesn't look too bad at the end of its 0z run. 

DT is pessimistic on X. 

Hope is kindled in the damp boundary layer of my heart.

[*Flash*]

DT has been down for the past month since the consensus Feb forecast busted (understandable given his locale). His X account has been an exhibition to his spiral of late. 
 

On a separate note, I was reminded of a localized 3” snow event that took place 3/11/17 in western middle TN in the heels of a blowtorch January/February. As much as I want one last Hail Mary pass, the gut feeling is the refs are on the sidelines about to call the game. No more time on the clock for this winter though maybe for 2500’+?

[Carvers Gap]

17 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

 

My memory is terrible but spring 2016, do you remember the overall pattern? We had a very warm March. So warm that I remember golf courses were almost green by the end of March and then we had about a week long freeze right around Easter that wiped out a lot of Azaleas, crept myrtles and fruiting trees. Hoping we don’t repeat that spring. (If my memory has the right year but I’m almost positive it was the same year as the GSM park fires).


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For now......it looks like the worst of the cold is over the Northeast.  If a storm were to deepen along the Coast(even if it doesn't snow here), that would be a concern.   The last two weeks of March have to be watched for cold.  Overall, the Weeklies last night were much warmer for April.  Those late season cold snaps are tough to predict....just takes one really strong cold front on the heels of a cutter or coastal along w/ some clear nights, and we could get a prolonged freeze even during a warm spell.  Several years ago, I. remember the leaves on the trees up here getting bitten and falling off during maybe May? 

[Daniel Boone]

55 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

For now......it looks like the worst of the cold is over the Northeast.  If a storm were to deepen along the Coast(even if it doesn't snow here), that would be a concern.   The last two weeks of March have to be watched for cold.  Overall, the Weeklies last night were much warmer for April.  Those late season cold snaps are tough to predict....just takes one really strong cold front on the heels of a cutter or coastal along w/ some clear nights, and we could get a prolonged freeze even during a warm spell.  Several years ago, I. remember the leaves on the trees up here getting bitten and falling off during maybe May? 

Yeah, mentioned that in a post above. Actually killed the Leaves on the Trees. May 2007.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, mentioned that in a post above. Actually killed the Leaves on the Trees. May 2007.

That is the year.  I must have not been reading closely!!!   Once we get over 50, all posts look new anyway!  LOL j/k - sorta not.  I don't know that we actually got full leaf coverage that year in NE TN.  The trough looks over the eastern half of the country on the 12z GFS.  The main axis looks over the NE, and fairly cool/progressive here.  If that thing were to buckle, look out....

[Daniel Boone]

6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

That is the year.  I must have not been reading closely!!!   Once we get over 50, all posts look new anyway!  LOL j/k - sorta not.  I don't know that we actually got full leaf coverage that year in NE TN.  The trough looks over the eastern half of the country on the 12z GFS.  The main axis looks over the NE, and fairly cool/progressive here.  If that thing were to buckle, look out....

Yep. Know what you mean man.  Sort of like watching an old classic show you've seen before that's like watching it for the first time. That's one good thing about being a Senior Citizen I guess along with the Senior discounts of course, lol

[Holston_River_Rambler]

You think there's any way we can talk some of these shortwaves diving in, into a March date in Georgia?

Consider the peach blossoms and beaches! 

 

They get freaky on Euro AIFS, but over Scranton PA. 

Who wants romance in NE PA in March? 

 

The Euro OP knows its days are numbered this year, so its Breaking Bad in New Mexico and emerging a strung out mess. Not good for a phased consummation:

(Although..... its antics might have drawn in a 3rd partner from the northern stream at the end of the run) 

Probably worse 500 mb looks:

 

 

Euro control gives us a nice clipper afterwards. 

 

 

Not a current model forecast, but 5 days ago the models still liked this storm:

That's the kind of phase I'd love to see. 

 

 

 

[jaxjagman]

It just would do this in mid March

[Holston_River_Rambler]

25 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

It just would do this in mid March

Yeah it looked like it was pretty well zonked. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS has been cooking something up around 240...GEM has that to some extent.  Cold shot w/ various waves.  Holston is on top of it as usual!  Worth watching at least for the mountains of E TN.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

GFS has some deep troughs this morning and the Euro control (basically the new Euro now) has clipper after clipper after clipper. If I was above 3500 feet WV, VA, or NC mountains, I'd love the Euro's look. 

 

Now that is finally a pattern look that matches the developing ENSO state. Exactly what you'd expect from a Nina. 

 

Maybe that is an indication we get some nice MCSs by June? I love me some MCSs, lol. 

 

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Found this in the main ENSO thread:

I could be reading it wrong, but it looks like SST anomalies by year and latitude. Looks like something tipped around 2003 and again after the super Nino in 2015-16. I'd love to see that chart going back another 100 years, but that could also be more depressing, lol. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Not there yet, but some improvement:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z GFS = yum

[iluvsnow]

Was just reading about the "most anomalous" weather month in US history....March 1843. Fascinating reading. It included a huge midmonth snowstorm in Tennessee and 25 degree below normal temperatures for the month of March for much of the central and eastern US. Fort Snelling in St. Paul Minnesota averaged an unbelievable 4 degrees above zero for the month. Snow fell in Tennessee well into April. Just wonder what kind of meteorological setup could have produced such weather.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/284436645_March_1843_The_Most_Abnormal_Month_Ever

https://www.weather.gov/ohx/18430315

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, iluvsnow said:

Was just reading about the "most anomalous" weather month in US history....March 1843. Fascinating reading. It included a huge midmonth snowstorm in Tennessee and 25 degree below normal temperatures for the month of March for much of the central and eastern US. Fort Snelling in St. Paul Minnesota averaged an unbelievable 4 degrees above zero for the month. Snow fell in Tennessee well into April. Just wonder what kind of meteorological setup could have produced such weather.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/284436645_March_1843_The_Most_Abnormal_Month_Ever

https://www.weather.gov/ohx/18430315

March of 1843 was truly amazing! From David Ludlum:

Confirmation that the cold and snowy regime of March 1843 was widespread across the Southland came from a new observing post in southwestern Arkansas.

In 1840 Nathan D. Smith of Washington; Hempstead County, near Texarkana, commenced a series of very good records which continued at least until the opening of the Civil War. The period from 1840 to 1859 was published in tabular form by the Smithsonian Institution in October 1860, and the record in manuscript is available until April 1861.° March 1843 (35.3°) was the coldest month in Dr. Smith's record save January 1856 (34.0°).

His maximum of 70° came on the 30th, the minimum of +6° on the 16th. There were two 4-inch snowstorms, on the 15th and 24th-the same dates that Natchez received a like covering. On another occasion glaze formed on trees, and on another sleet fell.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Sadly everything looks too progressive for my storm early next week. Euro AIFS was the first to wash it out, so maybe its on to something with the next one. 

 

At this point, I'd just like to see a strong storm north and east of the Missouri/ Mississippi rivers. I think all string storms have to for the lee of the Rockies and aim at the lakes recently. 

[Carvers Gap]

What a beautiful day.

[Matthew70]

Disappointing there will be a hard freeze Monday night.

[weathertree4u2]

2 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Disappointing there will be a hard freeze Monday night.

Probably low 20's where I am north of Nashville not good things are putting out 

[Itryatgolf70]

2 hours ago, weathertree4u2 said:

Probably low 20's where I am north of Nashville not good things are putting out 

We usually see one at some point in March but this year it looks transient 

[PowellVolz]

Disappointing there will be a hard freeze Monday night.

One cold night shouldn’t be a major issue and let’s not forget that lows in the 20’s this time of year once or twice is almost expected. For the most part everything that’s blooming now or budding can handle a night or two of temps below 29 degrees. Temps below 29 degrees for more than a couple of nights is when I get concerned. I also think the mods could be a couple of degrees too cold considering there will be a 10-25 mph wind blowing at times.


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[PowellVolz]

One cold night shouldn’t be a major issue and let’s not forget that lows in the 20’s this time of year once or twice is almost expected. For the most part everything that’s blooming now or budding can handle a night or two of temps below 29 degrees. Temps below 29 degrees for more than a couple of nights is when I get concerned. I also think the mods could be a couple of degrees too cold considering there will be a 10-25 mph wind blowing at times.


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Just noticed redbuds are 50-75% in depending on tree location. I’m sure this isn’t an anomaly but this does seem quite early by a few weeks or so.


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[Bigbald]

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

 

Just noticed redbuds are 50-75% in depending on tree location. I’m sure this isn’t an anomaly but this does seem quite early by a few weeks or so.


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Have to imagine this has been one the warmest March starts on record, are we averging plus 7-10 on temps for March thus far?

[PowellVolz]

Have to imagine this has been one the warmest March starts on record, are we averging plus 7-10 on temps for March thus far?

I’m sure it’s up there. I don’t keep up with the numbers that much but March 2016 was very warm. I play a lot of golf and I remember Bermuda was coming in towards the end of March 16’ and it was wiped out the week before/of Easter that year. We had mid to upper 20’s for about a week that year. A friend of mine owns a landscaping business and I help him out some when he gets backed up. That year we replaced over 120 crept myrtles at his Ihop stores. We learned a hard lesson that year. Do not trim back crept myrtle shrubs until the first of March.


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[PowellVolz]

Here’s the averages for March 2016. If I’m reading this right, the average temp was +14 degrees and if you look at the first week of the month the average mean temp was 46 degrees.





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[ChicagoGuy]

Hi everyone, apologies if I am doing this wrong, you all seem like you know a lot about weather and I really would like some information/knowledge from folks that understand this stuff really well!

 

My partner and I are planning a camping trip to Mammoth Cave Nat'l Park next week (it's spring break in Chicago), and I've been paying close attention to the NWS out of Louisville. Unfortunately it looks like rain is in the forecast for next week, which is not a great addition to a camping trip. I know that more than five days out forecasts can be inaccurate, but I have been paying attention to the forecast discussion on their site as well. I don't understand all of the technical things they are talking about, but I've figured out that there is some sort of weather system that is forecast to push through the upper South/lower Midwest next week that will bring rain with it. With that in mind I have a few questions that I hope you guys can help explain for me:

1.) Is this forecast just saying that there is a higher probability of rain, or is it saying that it will rain and it's really just a question of how much?

2.) If it is going to rain next week, will it be a lot, or will it just be raining off an on, or for parts of the day(s)?

3.) Is this a weather system that will impact a large area? I am thinking if we're certain it won't be good weather in Mammoth Cave, KY we might pick a different national recreation area or state park (such as Mark Twain National Forest, or Hoosier National Forest) instead.

 

Thank you all so much for your time, talent and knowledge, and if this post doesn't belong here, please let me know and I'll gladly delete it.

[PowellVolz]

Hi everyone, apologies if I am doing this wrong, you all seem like you know a lot about weather and I really would like some information/knowledge from folks that understand this stuff really well!
 
My partner and I are planning a camping trip to Mammoth Cave Nat'l Park next week (it's spring break in Chicago), and I've been paying close attention to the NWS out of Louisville. Unfortunately it looks like rain is in the forecast for next week, which is not a great addition to a camping trip. I know that more than five days out forecasts can be inaccurate, but I have been paying attention to the forecast discussion on their site as well. I don't understand all of the technical things they are talking about, but I've figured out that there is some sort of weather system that is forecast to push through the upper South/lower Midwest next week that will bring rain with it. With that in mind I have a few questions that I hope you guys can help explain for me:
1.) Is this forecast just saying that there is a higher probability of rain, or is it saying that it will rain and it's really just a question of how much?
2.) If it is going to rain next week, will it be a lot, or will it just be raining off an on, or for parts of the day(s)?
3.) Is this a weather system that will impact a large area? I am thinking if we're certain it won't be good weather in Mammoth Cave, KY we might pick a different national recreation area or state park (such as Mark Twain National Forest, or Hoosier National Forest) instead.
 
Thank you all so much for your time, talent and knowledge, and if this post doesn't belong here, please let me know and I'll gladly delete it.

Like you said we are still several days out from the potential weather maker for the first of next week. IMO I would continue to follow the local NWS for the area in question like you are doing. However I’d say there’s a high likelihood of a impactful system from the mid west to the east coast from Sunday through Tuesday. Really hard to tell right now if this is gonna be a widespread rain event or a quick hitter squall line. By Friday afternoon the NWS should have a better handle on the local impacts for your location. We have some very talented weather enthusiasts on this site so check back in on Friday afternoon if you still need some help.


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