March/ Spring mid-long range

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I mis/ over-used the elk, wooly worm, and metal snowman and we all paid the price in February. 

I'm ready for a bowling ball. 

[Carvers Gap]

New CANSIPS is out.  Here is the look for next winter.  @Itryatgolf70, I have also attached the predicted seasonal DJF surface temp map for the Pac basin.  Starts east based in Sept and migrates to central basin by December.  Huge grains of salt as LR modeling almost always has a very warm bias.  So, TIFWIW.  Monster SER and Aleutians high are the staple features.  The model really doesn't show a typical Nina progression for next fall/winter, but....I would guess some analogs are non-winters.  The danger w/ stronger ENSO events is that winter never shows up, and we have been long overdue for a non west of the Apps.  May need a whole heard of elk next winter.  The Mountain West is set for a great winter next winter.  -PDO features prominently.   I would guess the compiled, overall DJF look is correct, but the progression of how it arrived there...not right.  That progression is critical for how our winter looks here.

Summer starts cool and ends hot...but that really isn't earth shattering stuff, right?  I need to go back and look at precip.

 

 

 

[weathertree4u2]

10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

New CANSIPS is out.  Here is the look for next winter.  @Itryatgolf70, I have also attached the predicted seasonal DJF surface temp map for the Pac basin.  Starts east based in Sept and migrates to central basin by December.  Huge grains of salt as LR modeling almost always has a very warm bias.  So, TIFWIW.  Monster SER and Aleutians high are the staple features.  The model really doesn't show a typical Nina progression for next fall/winter, but....I would guess some analogs are non-winters.  The danger w/ stronger ENSO events is that winter never shows up, and we have been long overdue for a non west of the Apps.  May need a whole heard of elk next winter.  The Mountain West is set for a great winter next winter.  -PDO features prominently.   I would guess the compiled, overall DJF look is correct, but the progression of how it arrived there...not right.  That progression is critical for how our winter looks here.

Summer starts cool and ends hot...but that really isn't earth shattering stuff, right?  I need to go back and look at precip.

 

 

 

With such a huge miss by long range modeling this winter, what is it about the model that would illicit any confidence? At this point, I dont trust anything outside 24 hours but I dont have as much experience at some reviewing long-range guidance

[Carvers Gap]

32 minutes ago, weathertree4u2 said:

With such a huge miss by long range modeling this winter, what is it about the model that would illicit any confidence? At this point, I dont trust anything outside 24 hours but I dont have as much experience at some reviewing long-range guidance

That is certainly your right to have that opinion.  All modeling misses.  That is like missing a free throw and saying, “Well, all of the next ones are not going in.”  I will go back and look, but I believe Cansips was pretty close for Feb last month. 

[Carvers Gap]

Cansips did really well for Feb.  One error was a minor trough over the SE but it didn’t go whole hog.  It’s MJO portrayal was pretty stellar - warm phases just looking at its Lower 48 temp profile. 
 

Again, at this range...one won’t see details in the pattern.  The overall DJF looks right.  The DJF for this recent winter will be warm, but unless someone looks, folks won’t see Jan where record lasting snowfall was on the ground in Knoxville.  The Cansips does have a warm bias, but one simply has to learn model biases.

And LR ext modeling missed only for Feb.  It did well for December and January.  67% accuracy for at range is pretty decent...better than decent.  Again, following modeling of chaotic energy systems is not for the faint of heart.   The only way to get better is to use them.  A lot of what we use (even though this is a public forum) is pretty state of the art.  I am not going to use a Commodore 64 just because the new Lenovo is a bit buggy.   The storm that we track during January...go look how far out we tracked that storm.  We might have been tracking it from 10+ days.  Fairly amazing at how far we have come in twenty years.  Just wait until AI gets better.

There are going to be modeling busts.  I have been doing this a long time, and it is going to happen.  That is just an understood variable with this hobby.

 

[Carvers Gap]

The one bug across most modeling of late is that weeks 3-4 have been too cold.  I am not sure if that is due to an outdated analog package or if the IO/MC is wrecking havoc by firing unexpectedly.  That is a recent bug which showed up in LR ext modeling during mid Jan(forecast for Feb).   Honestly, this is also spring and we are in an ENSO transition....spitballing that is prob part of recent model inconsistency.  Any transition caused model issues - seasonal, ENSO, NAO, etc.   
 

I still think BN temps/seasonal for next Dec.  Then, I think above for the rest of next winter JFM.  If the Cansips is ever cold during winter, reality will often verify colder.  Hot and dry for mid-late summer and early fall...then flip.

[Itryatgolf70]

8 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Cansips did really well for Feb.  One error was a minor trough over the SE but it didn’t go whole hog.  It’s MJO portrayal was pretty stellar - warm phases just looking at its Lower 48 temp profile. 
 

Again, at this range...one won’t see details in the pattern.  The overall DJF looks right.  The DJF for this recent winter will be warm, but unless someone looks, folks won’t see Jan where record lasting snowfall was on the ground in Knoxville.  The Cansips does have a warm bias, but one simply has to learn model biases.

And LR ext modeling missed only for Feb.  It did well for December and January.  67% accuracy for at range is pretty decent...better than decent.  Again, following modeling of chaotic energy systems is not for the faint of heart.   The only way to get better is to use them.  A lot of what we use (even though this is a public forum) is pretty state of the art.  I am not going to use a Commodore 64 just because the new Lenovo is a bit buggy.   The storm that we track during January...go look how far out we tracked that storm.  We might have been tracking it from 10+ days.  Fairly amazing at how far we have come in twenty years.  Just wait until AI gets better.

There are going to be modeling busts.  I have been doing this a long time, and it is going to happen.  That is just an understood variable with this hobby.

 

Carver, do you have the early archived cansips from 20-21 through 22-23 niña winter to see how it did before winter started each those years? 

[PowellVolz]

Looking ahead…. I’m sure we will have the normal ups and downs temp wise but as of now it’s not looking like we are going to be dealing with any severe cold right?

.

[Daniel Boone]

12 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Cansips did really well for Feb.  One error was a minor trough over the SE but it didn’t go whole hog.  It’s MJO portrayal was pretty stellar - warm phases just looking at its Lower 48 temp profile. 
 

Again, at this range...one won’t see details in the pattern.  The overall DJF looks right.  The DJF for this recent winter will be warm, but unless someone looks, folks won’t see Jan where record lasting snowfall was on the ground in Knoxville.  The Cansips does have a warm bias, but one simply has to learn model biases.

And LR ext modeling missed only for Feb.  It did well for December and January.  67% accuracy for at range is pretty decent...better than decent.  Again, following modeling of chaotic energy systems is not for the faint of heart.   The only way to get better is to use them.  A lot of what we use (even though this is a public forum) is pretty state of the art.  I am not going to use a Commodore 64 just because the new Lenovo is a bit buggy.   The storm that we track during January...go look how far out we tracked that storm.  We might have been tracking it from 10+ days.  Fairly amazing at how far we have come in twenty years.  Just wait until AI gets better.

There are going to be modeling busts.  I have been doing this a long time, and it is going to happen.  That is just an understood variable with this hobby.

 

Yeah, Cansips did a good Job for February. The IO/MC really worked havoc on most guidance and our Winter overall really. 

[Carvers Gap]

5 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Carver, do you have the early archived cansips from 20-21 through 22-23 niña winter to see how it did before winter started each those years? 

I probably have them stored somewhere.   It'll bounce around at this range.  Seems like it did pretty well, though, during those years.  It has a warm bias, but its 500 maps are generally about as reliable as one can get at that range.  Still a very long way to go.

[Carvers Gap]

Still a ways out there, but a pretty significant pattern change is now on d14-16 of global ensembles (not just LR ext models).  To be fair, this is where it got last time, and it flipped warm.  So, just that caveat.  Overall though, that is a pretty cold look.  I doubt that means measurable snow for many of us, but wouldn't surprise me to see some late season frozen precip in the air and maybe a dusting.  Higher elevations have a legit chance at late season mischief if that is correct - anything above 2500'.

[jaxjagman]

Nino is done now.EKW just put a dent and in the east ,upwelling the colder waters FROM the thermocline to the surface.Euro and CFS the next few days both show a ERW,coming into play also,kinda like a 1-2 KO punch,then the easteries should come into play.If the thermocline was much colder along the IDL,into the WP,,this would be quite similar to what happened in the1997-1998 NINO/NINA 

[jaxjagman]

We know where the MJO is headed

[*Flash*]

10 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Still a ways out there, but a pretty significant pattern change is now on d14-16 of global ensembles (not just LR ext models).  To be fair, this is where it got last time, and it flipped warm.  So, just that caveat.  Overall though, that is a pretty cold look.  I doubt that means measurable snow for many of us, but wouldn't surprise me to see some late season frozen precip in the air and maybe a dusting.  Higher elevations have a legit chance at late season mischief if that is correct - anything above 2500'.

Here’s rootin’ for some wintry mischief in Monterey later this month. Just need one more snow in the air moment and I’ll be good ‘til next winter. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, *Flash* said:

Here’s rootin’ for some wintry mischief in Monterey later this month. Just need one more snow in the air moment and I’ll be good ‘til next winter. 

Best I can tell is that the pattern at 500 is set to flip around St Patrick's Day.  We are gonna wish we had that pattern a month ago I think.  We are kind of in that time frame where it missed last month, so proceed with caution.  Looks cold.  The 18z GFS tonight had a dusting to 2" of snow over the eastern half at lower elevations and up to 4-5" lollipops on the Plateau at LR.

[Itryatgolf70]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Best I can tell is that the pattern at 500 is set to flip around St Patrick's Day.  We are gonna wish we had that pattern a month ago I think.  We are kind of in that time frame where it missed last month, so proceed with caution.  Looks cold.  The 18z GFS tonight had a dusting to 2" of snow over the eastern half at lower elevations and up to 4-5" lollipops on the Plateau at LR.

Reason I mentioned if u had old cansips maps is because the three niñas in a row wasn't bad. Wasn't crazy warm.  It would be interesting to know if the cansips had 21-22 east based early on. 21-22 was ultimately east based, despite it being strong was still pretty cold, especially after December. At least here. I just feel if if this next  niña is central based, it may be another long winter lol. Most niñas are front loaded if it does get cold, but of course the exception to the rules lol.

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z GFS (fantasy land) produces fairly significant winter storm 1'+ (12-17" of snow in some locals)for portions of the forum area.  I won't add much more than that as it is pretty far out there, but that is right around the pattern change time frame, and worth at least a sideways glance from time to time.

[Carvers Gap]

18z GFS is not benign......some late season bonus runs by the American model today.

[Itryatgolf70]

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

18z GFS is not benign......some late season bonus runs by the American model today.

What's interesting is the 12z gfs don't show it but the off runs do lol. Fun to look at it I suppose. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

What's interesting is the 12z gfs don't show it but the off runs do lol. Fun to look at it I suppose. 

I just think modeling is sensing potential...could be something, could be absolutely nothing.  One of the interesting things about spring storms(if they arrive at night), is they will often over perform in NE TN.  The Euro control LR extend(maybe yesterday or day before) had had something similar in that time frame as well.  My guess is there is a piece of energy up stream that is potentially going to interact w/ a cold front.  Timing is everything at that point.  The best storms are often spotted at very long range...but I wouldn't say modeling has "spotted" anything quite yet.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

What's interesting is the 12z gfs don't show it but the off runs do lol. Fun to look at it I suppose. 

For the E TN mountains, I had a post in the Feb thread w/ the Pisgah and Spring Break storms.  Those setups usually involve some sort of cutter into the Ohio Valley and a stalled, secondary lee side slp(sort of an odd Miller B).  I am not saying that is what happens, but that is one of two set-ups that I look for.  The other setup is a Miller A.  The first scenario normally doesn't happen during winter, but stalled lows during spring are fairly common in the SE.  They can occur as bowling balls or a lee side low that loses its steering current. The GFS has flirted w/ the first setup on a few runs.  Kind of fun to track just for kicks and giggles.

[Carvers Gap]

If you look at the 18z, you can see the slp crash into the Ohio Valley and a secondary form east of the Apps.  Go look at those maps in the Feb thread, and that is what it looks like w/ one notable exception...the lee side stalls and doesn't progress northeastward very quickly at all.  But the 18z GFS has that wonky setup....just too far out there to take seriously at this point.  The 18z would put 1'+ above 5,000' in the Apps.

[Carvers Gap]

Pretty substantial cool down coming up in the d10+ and moving forward w/ time.

[Itryatgolf70]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Pretty substantial cool down coming up in the d10+ and moving forward w/ time.

A SSW has occurred and is effecting us this time. Cohen said main pv will be on our side. Late season cool shot.

[Matthew70]

17 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

A SSW has occurred and is effecting us this time. Cohen said main pv will be on our side. Late season cool shot.

Of course.  That’s TN springs anymore.  Cold rains. 

[Carvers Gap]

24 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Of course.  That’s TN springs anymore.  Cold rains. 

We really want to hang on to cooler weather for as long as possible w/ La Nina lurking.  It has been my experience that if things warm-up during spring(during La Nina years), the summers are long and brutal.  I don't see a long period of misery....more like cool shots, rain at times, and a strong cold shot or two.  There is certainly a scenario there where it gets quite cold as ensembles being cold at this range can sometimes translate to much colder.   Right now the cycle is....warm followed by step down to seasonal followed by step down to bitterly cold.  Do we repeat that cycle one more time?  IDK.  But, I do think we are seeing a legitimate pattern change coming up w/ more troughing at least making its way eastward.  The Mountain West is piling up snow, and they are going to need every bit of that water content.

[Carvers Gap]

28 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Of course.  That’s TN springs anymore.  Cold rains. 

And yes, I think we tend to see SSWs head to eastern North America during spring.

[Carvers Gap]

Below is what the Euro Weeklies have been advertising for 3-4 weeks.  This is now on the Canadian ensemble.  That is West coast blocking connecting to Greenland blocking.  This has been an error for most of the winter with the exception being mid-January.  Let's see if this verifies.  

 

[PowellVolz]

We really want to hang on to cooler weather for as long as possible w/ La Nina lurking.  It has been my experience that if things warm-up during spring(during La Nina years), the summers are long and brutal.  I don't see a long period of misery....more like cool shots, rain at times, and a strong cold shot or two.  There is certainly a scenario there where it gets quite cold as ensembles being cold at this range can sometimes translate to much colder.   Right now the cycle is....warm followed by step down to seasonal followed by step down to bitterly cold.  Do we repeat that cycle one more time?  IDK.  But, I do think we are seeing a legitimate pattern change coming up w/ more troughing at least making its way eastward.  The Mountain West is piling up snow, and they are going to need every bit of that water content.

My memory is terrible but spring 2016, do you remember the overall pattern? We had a very warm March. So warm that I remember golf courses were almost green by the end of March and then we had about a week long freeze right around Easter that wiped out a lot of Azaleas, crept myrtles and fruiting trees. Hoping we don’t repeat that spring. (If my memory has the right year but I’m almost positive it was the same year as the GSM park fires).


.

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

 

My memory is terrible but spring 2016, do you remember the overall pattern? We had a very warm March. So warm that I remember golf courses were almost green by the end of March and then we had about a week long freeze right around Easter that wiped out a lot of Azaleas, crept myrtles and fruiting trees. Hoping we don’t repeat that spring. (If my memory has the right year but I’m almost positive it was the same year as the GSM park fires).


.

 

Yeah. Also remember 2008 a very warm March that transferred to a very cold early April with heavy Snow Shower's the 8th. March 07 was mild to then a hard late Freeze occured in mid May that killed alot of the Leaves on the Tree's. Likewise, after the very mild Winter of 01-02 late Season Freezes occurred on the 22nd and 23rd of May with Temps recorded in the upper 20's. Needless to say, foliage and vegetation damage occured.