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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2024 OBS/Discussion


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5 hours ago, hazwoper said:

Son got this shot at 3am.  Was visible too!

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What I saw was about half this intensity through the camera on night vision at 4am. With the eye it was brightness in the sky with the slightest hint of green over the horizon and pillars of white haze to almost overhead that one could compare to seeing the milky way on a dark night. Meh nothing life changing obviously missed the peak intensity.

 

 

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well, 45 degrees with moderate rain to srart the day.n What else is new.  My heater is on as the house temp cannot even stay at 70 degrees with these cloudy below 50 degree high miserable days.  I really hope tomorrow turns out to be sunny but I would expect nothing less than a sunny morning turning into a stratus cloud deck in the afternoon. All I want are 3-5 days of SW winds  and chances of t -storms. Guess I wil not see that chance until Memorial day at this juncture.  Dying el nino patterns are a real let down.

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0.16" of rain since midnight here in East Nantmeal. Today will be our 3rd straight below normal temp day with most spots staying in the upper 50's for high temps. The sun returns tomorrow and temps should get close to normal at around 70 degrees. Rain chances again increase for Tuesday and Wednesday before better weather for Thursday and Friday.
Chester County wide records for today: High 94 degrees at Phoenixville (1948) / Low 31 degrees at Coatesville 1SW (1907) / Rain 3.07" in West Chester (1943)
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Below is an analysis of 90 degree days at 8 airports across Eastern and East Central PA. The yellow highlights decades that the number of 90 degree days declined at that location. We can clearly see that all locations have shown cyclical variations with the 2000's seeing 5 of 6 stations not starting obs in the 2000's with declining 90 degree days vs the 1990's. The 2010's saw increases at all locations....the 2020's are incomplete but the trend so far this decade has been a split with more 90 degree days at 5 airports and less at 3.

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4 hours ago, Albedoman said:

well, 45 degrees with moderate rain to srart the day.n What else is new.  My heater is on as the house temp cannot even stay at 70 degrees with these cloudy below 50 degree high miserable days.  I really hope tomorrow turns out to be sunny but I would expect nothing less than a sunny morning turning into a stratus cloud deck in the afternoon. All I want are 3-5 days of SW winds  and chances of t -storms. Guess I wil not see that chance until Memorial day at this juncture.  Dying el nino patterns are a real let down.

Yet ironically May is above normal to date despite feeling like a top 20 coldest.

 

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A great day today with temps well into the 60's to near 70 for most spots. Rain chances ramp up again by later tomorrow and through much of the day on Wednesday. Thursday looks nice but then more shower chances to end the work week and into the weekend. Near normal temps for much of the week.
Chester County records for today: High 92 degrees in West Chester (1991) / Low 28 degrees at Coatesville 1SW (1928) / Rain 2.50" Morgantown/Elverson (2002)
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Our wet year (we are almost 6 inches above normal so far in 2024) looks to continue with more shower chances just about every day over the next week with the exception of Friday. With the exception of the wettest day tomorrow we still could see some sun most of those days so not a total wash out!
Chester County records for today: High 93 degrees in Phoenixville (1947) / Low 28.1 at Nottingham (2013) / Rain 2.15" at Devault 1W (1978)
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Have been trying to "make hay" out on the patio in between the rains, to prep my planters for some new plants I picked up.

It has definitely been "spring"/April-like weather so far this month with the ups and downs of the temps.  Ended up with a high of 86 last Wed. (5/8) vs a high of only 52 this past Sunday (5/12) and got 0.87" of rain between 5/8 through to today (5/14) so far.

Didn't get to spot any aurora - the only "clear" period here was about 4 am Monday (where the low was 43), but then it quickly clouded over right before sunrise (probably with some stratus too) and then the sun of course blocked any other viewing later.

It's gotten humid as the morning has progressed and after a low of 51 this morning, I am currently at 68 with dp 61.

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Seattle weather returns with a vengence for the next two weeks. The only sunny day in the next seven days is Friday and that is not even all sunny.  I say screw the monthly average temps discusssion in this forum as its not worth even a discussion because it does not paint the entire picture of this May's weather. With a few days with near 90 highs really  does make up for the weeks of 50 degree highs and lower 40's lows.  One pathetic  t-storm is a joke too. Days on end of cloudy stratus clouds with drizzle/light rain is a landscapers dream for mowing lawns. All I can say if this nasty weather pattern keeps up, we may not see a high in the 90's for all of June. All I want  are 2-3 days of sunny days and temps in the low to mid 80's so I can spray my bug killer and clean the green algae off the deck. I guess that is asking for a miracle right now.

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0.58" of rain since yesterday here in East Nantmeal with 0.21" since midnight. Cloudy and chilly weather for May continues through the upcoming weekend with the greatest chances of rain being today and again on Saturday. The sun may should return again by Monday and we should finally see temps rising back to near normal levels again by Tuesday.
Chester County records for today: High 95 degrees at Coatesville 1SW (1900) / Low 32 degrees at Devault 1W (1954) / Rain 2.09" at East Nantmeal (2012)
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16 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Memorial day weekend. Long way away but I kinda believe it since we've been in a rainy weekend pattern for whatever reason...

68F/light rain/DP a bit muggy DP62F 

md weekend.jpg

Cut & paste that forecast for Christmas! 

 

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In my continuing review of after the fact NCEI temperature adjustments for Chester County PA I have reviewed the detailed monthly NCEI average temperatures for all 1,548 months since January 1895. For the first 1,271 months from January 1895 through November 2000. NCEI applied a post hoc chilling adjustment to the reported average temperatures for every single month for each and every year. So for all of those months the average reported temperatures as reported by the NWS Cooperative stations were chilled to an adjusted lower temperature. Since NCEI stopped these non-stop chilling adjustments starting in December 2000... they have now reversed gears and are now applying warming adjustments in 208 of the last 277 months or 75.1% of all months between December 2000 and December 2023.

Also of note is that in every single summer month between June and September since way back in June 2006 and continuing through last September 2023....for each of those last 72 consecutive summertime months they have warmed each and every month. Cooling the past and warming the more recent and current years....that will get us to the answer.

 

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9 minutes ago, RedSky said:

We got a big bone thrown with todays rainy day bust being moastly cloudy nd now the weekend system looking suppressed into Virginia. 

....and 63F with a 10-15mph breeze, nice day overall.

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In my continuing review of after the fact NCEI temperature adjustments for Chester County PA I have reviewed the detailed monthly NCEI average temperatures for all 1,548 months since January 1895. For the first 1,271 months from January 1895 through November 2000. NCEI applied a post hoc chilling adjustment to the reported average temperatures for every single month for each and every year. So for all of those months the average reported temperatures as reported by the NWS Cooperative stations were chilled to an adjusted lower temperature. Since NCEI stopped these non-stop chilling adjustments starting in December 2000... they have now reversed gears and are now applying warming adjustments in 208 of the last 277 months or 75.1% of all months between December 2000 and December 2023.

Also of note is that in every single summer month between June and September since way back in June 2006 and continuing through last September 2023....for each of those last 72 consecutive summertime months they have warmed each and every month. Cooling the past and warming the more recent and current years....that will get us to the answer.

 

This averaging only goes to someones agenda for pushing  global warming. Time to throw a monkey wrench into this averaging crap-- Urban spawl and imperviousenss with the urban heat island effect. Urban sprawl has a much more significant effect on the urban weather environment. Until these great global warming idiots realize this temp averaging adjustments to prove their point means nada  they must consider  how the albedo effect too.  I can only imagine all of these solar panels installed in the past ten  years will  do from  these huge solar farms and residential homes. The avg temps will start to cool in the upcoming years. When man effects the solar radiation averaging now- basically the NCEI placed an algorithmn  to get the results they wish for which is not averaging- it is now considered playing with the numbers. 

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Another year, yet another very slow start to thunderstorm season. It’s the middle of May and I can recall just one, maybe two storms here in Allentown. Looks like nothing in the forecast for at least the next week either. I know our peak is usually around July and August but I don’t remember spring being this dead year after year. Glad I’ve started chasing in the plains for a week or two every year because spring has just been boring here.

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While not the sunniest of days, today and Friday should be dry and not too far from our normal high in the low 70's. We chill back down to below normal over the weekend with shower chances the highest on Saturday but dry again on Sunday.
Chester County wide records for today: High 91 degrees at Phoenixville (1945) / Low 30 degrees at Coatesville 1SW (1956) / Rain 2.16" at Glenmoore (2012)
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