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March Banter 2024


George BM
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I was thinking … dangerous yes .. but winter seems to fly by these days. I think I know why. It’s all the looking ahead trying to see what’s coming. I’m fine with that. Next year I’m sticking to a 4 day max. I won’t be reading the long range thread. Back before all this long range garbage, we just took winter as it came, good years and bad. I’m going old school next year.

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20 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Yep. I report to work at Fort Belvoir once weekly and try to do a lunchtime walk down to Accotink Bay...have seen a handful of osprey in past couple weeks, and a couple of them have already been hooting at me when I walk near their nesting platforms/poles, which the Army is pretty good about placing all around the bay for them. Of course, they're not averse to building their pterodactyl-like nests at the top of the field lights surrounding nearby baseball/softball fields on post, either.  :) 

I had no idea the Army did this and I approve.

edit, I do see some platforms around here (in Armyland lol) but always figured DNR or such

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On 2/29/2024 at 10:51 PM, George BM said:

Forecast Discussion

Saturday, March 16, 2024 3:28PM EDT

Blizzard Warning in effect from 8AM EDT Sunday, March 17, 2024 until 3PM EDT Monday, March 18, 2024

High Wind Warning in effect from 9AM EDT Sunday, March 17, 2024 until 6PM EDT Monday, March 18, 2024

Hurricane-Force Wind Warning in effect from 2PM EDT Sunday, March 17, 2024 until 6AM EDT Monday, March 18, 2024 (for tidal-Potomac and Chesapeake Bay)

 

Life-Threatening Late-Winter Storm to cripple the region.

Temps are currently holding in the mid-50sF across the DC metro area but are already starting to fall in far northern Maryland as the cold front associated with the strong northern stream system drops south through the region. Temps will plummet out of the 50s and through the 40s and 30s through the evening and reach the lower 20s in many areas by morning as the unusually cold airmass pushes in. As this occurs through the late afternoon and evening hours skies will become overcast both from lift associated with the southward moving cold front and from the strong southern stream system to our south/southwest. There may be enough lift and moisture associated with the front for some light sprinkles and/or a few flurries/light snow showers to develop through the evening before precip slips to the southeast. Northerly winds will become quite gusty during this time with gusts of 25 to 40 mph.

As the strong southern storm system moves toward the coastal Carolinas tonight it will begin to phase with a second powerful northern stream vort diving south from the eastern Great Lakes/ Toronto region leading to strong diffluence over the surface low leading to rapid deepening. The two will pinwheel around each other as they phase bringing the southern storm and associated surface low northwards as rapid deepening takes place allowing snow to overspread the region by morning from southeast to northwest. The snow will quickly become heavy as NE winds increase with gusts to over 50 mph across the region likely by midday. Temperatures during this time will be in the lower 20sF leading to windchills in the single digits. By the late afternoon/evening the surface low will slow down and eventually stall over the Virginia peninsula/ southern Chesapeake Bay area. The surface pressure could be as low as the mid-950s in millibars breaking monthly low-pressure records in that area. Meanwhile, the areas northwest of the surface low (the greater Washington DC and Baltimore metros) will be getting the worst of this storm with blinding snowfall and widespread 60-75+ mph wind gusts w/ 80-90+ mph gusts along the coast of the Bay. In fact, snowfall rates in the heaviest bands will likely be in the 4-6”+/hr range leading to visibilities as low as 50 feet (effectively zero visibility for the sake of argument) from the late afternoon hours through the night and into Monday morning. Temperatures will remain in the 20s throughout the duration of this event with upper teens possible in the higher elevations north and west and temperatures closer to 32F in far southern MD and along the bay where warmer air will be located near the surface low. Windchills during the duration of the event will stay in the single-digits for most w/ negative single-digits in the mountains and lower teens in southern MD and along the bay.

Near-whiteout and conditions and severe wind gusts will still be ongoing by dawn Monday as the low-pressure system slowly pulls northeastwards. Heavy snow will continue through the late morning to midday hours before tapering off from west to east. When all is set and done with total liquid-equivalent precipitation of 4-7”+ across the region, snowfall totals of 4 to 6 FEET will likely be commonplace with snow drifts of as high as 30 feet possible. Areas in southern MD and near the Bay may end up with slightly less (roughly 2 to 4 feet) as the warmer air associated with the low-pressure center cuts down on totals in that area.

This will be the worst blizzard, by far, to impact the region since weather records started in the later 1800s. It will essentially be a high-impact hurricane with snow instead of rain as the main precip-type. People who venture outside during this time may get disoriented and lost in the whiteout conditions and/or get seriously injured by flying debris. Emergency services may not be able to reach you for days should something happen to you outside. This is the DC and Baltimore urban corridor not Lake Tahoe or the Japanese Alps. We’re not equipped with the snow removal equipment that they have. So, if you absolutely must venture outside during the storm no caution that you use would be too extreme given the circumstances.

Temperatures will only rebound to the lower 30s as skies start clearing by mid to late afternoon on Monday.

 

Forecaster Wannabe: George BM

Meh...DCA will only measure 17.8"!! :lol:

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4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Aside from the fact that its lobbying is helping to keep people have to keep filing complex tax returns, TurboTax’s software is just shit.

I cussed it out just this morning. Janky through and through.

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On 3/8/2024 at 8:08 AM, WinterWxLuvr said:

I was thinking … dangerous yes .. but winter seems to fly by these days. I think I know why. It’s all the looking ahead trying to see what’s coming. I’m fine with that. Next year I’m sticking to a 4 day max. I won’t be reading the long range thread. Back before all this long range garbage, we just took winter as it came, good years and bad. I’m going old school next year.

Next winter, come mid-December, see you at the 384-hr plots. 

You know you wanna see that snow porn.

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23 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Aside from the fact that its lobbying is helping to keep people have to keep filing complex tax returns, TurboTax’s software is just shit.

So, TurboTax has been imminently helpful in importing our composite investment accounts from Raymond James for the past decade. But this year, in addition to the past several years, I completely fault Raymond James for posting their "final" composite investment account statements later and later, every year. We really want to have our fed/state taxes wrapped up by end of Feb every year...but RJ makes that damn near impossible, and maybe that means we need to find a new financial advisor after two decades.  :( 

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3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Ravens are about to sign Derrick Henry. 2 year/$16 million. 

A bit worried about the mileage for a 30 yo back, but seems like a good move given they let Gus walk. Should be a better version for a year or 2 if they are able to find replacements for the missing pieces on the OL and actually improve that unit, which was pretty mediocre at times last season. Ravens will find some hidden gem RB in the later rounds or as an UDFA. Mitchell probably won't be a factor this season- probably won't be ready to play at all until Dec at the earliest. Who knows about Dobbins.. might be time to move on.

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Its snowing really good at Mammoth !!!! Check out the main lodge! The lights are ON!

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

Woolly Cam shows snow accumulating on the Woolly Lot! You can see the snow falling in real time and blowing on the lot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

Alpine Peak Cam at Palisades is showing snow as well!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams#tab=alpine

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4 hours ago, DanTheMan said:

IMG_6503.thumb.jpeg.54269ed3688faa22c51cf1d2945975bf.jpegFinally got my snow fix this year, visited Langjökull glacier in Iceland over the weekend! 

Absolutely, stunningly gorgeous photo. Also, I'm somewhat ashamed to admit that my only knowledge of the Langjökull glacier is limited to what I've seen in the greatest animated movie ever made...

 

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On 3/13/2024 at 11:49 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Denver area continues to do well with snowfall. They are in a sweet spot with the warming, like NYC was 2010-2015. Meanwhile, we are almost 80 in Baltimore. 

https://ibb.co/3rGsDRd

22" from this storm here in Boulder. I was living in Richmond during 09/10 and it really stung to see the insane snow totals just an hour or two north (although Jan 2016 helped a little). I think I can finally say I'm content ~15 years later now that I have experienced three 20"+ events in 5 years along with the all-time snowiest winter in Boulder. This is truly a sick hobby :lol:

All that said, there is something magical about a good MA snowstorm. I miss it.

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The Austin NWS 'forecasters' never made it out of preschool. They kissed 8ss, sucked 8ss and gave billions of toe-curling orgasms. That's how they got 'promoted' to their missionary 'positions' at the Austin NWS office.

I know. They forecasted 80 percent rain Friday afternoon and night, March 15.

Guess what? Someone should have told them the front was gonna sag into the Gulf instead of hanging around Austin acting as the focus for showers. That's something the locals here know from 5 years old. You learn when your life depends on rainfall!!!!!!!!!!!! We dont sit in offices sucking our thumbs all day long. Hell, I work like a slave OUTSIDE in this weather!

Now these fools are forecasting rain early this morning, 90 percent. They are gonna FAIL. These dumb FOOLS actually BELIEVE its going to RAIN today, March 16!!!!! Heck, I got one hell of a BRIDGE to sell ya!

1. Austin 'forecasters' can't forecast the weather. The only time they can is in summer when its always clear, 101 degrees, partly cloudy and humid. A clock is also correct twice a day.

2. They are so bad and so full of FAIL that AI can't even help them. These people are far worse at their 'jobs', than some "bartenders" on Bar Rescue!!!

3. There is NO mechanism in the atmosphere that can possibly move that front north to Austin by this morning. 'Forecasters' STILL insist we have a 90 percent chance of rain today, Saturday. This is what happens when 'forecasters' CHEAT their way up into the ranks, while kissing serious ass all along the way.

4 Austin is a very dry climate. We know we wont get rain. Even the Nino didnt help us. Now we have a strong Nina developing. Now there's NO WAY IN HELL we get rain. Texas will end up goin the way of the Maya. Nina means we are hot as the very bowels of Hell and extremely dry. We tend to get Ninas in threes, so let's see, we get meaningful rains about 2035.

Austin NWS needs to get their fooking act together, change that dumb8ss forecast, to cloudy, 10 percent chance of a passing sprinkle. Rain totals should average about 0.0000000000000001 of an inch. Winds will become easterly about 10 mph. High temps today will be about 70. Dews should be about 60.

I am the Weather Expert. NWS sure isn't. Oh, we have some showers forming to my southwest. Too bad that is sliding east.

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14 hours ago, MidlothianWX said:

22" from this storm here in Boulder. I was living in Richmond during 09/10 and it really stung to see the insane snow totals just an hour or two north (although Jan 2016 helped a little). I think I can finally say I'm content ~15 years later now that I have experienced three 20"+ events in 5 years along with the all-time snowiest winter in Boulder. This is truly a sick hobby :lol:

All that said, there is something magical about a good MA snowstorm. I miss it.

Hey Midlothian! Good to hear from you and I am super glad you caught that one pretty flush in Boulder. 

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14 hours ago, MidlothianWX said:

22" from this storm here in Boulder. I was living in Richmond during 09/10 and it really stung to see the insane snow totals just an hour or two north (although Jan 2016 helped a little). I think I can finally say I'm content ~15 years later now that I have experienced three 20"+ events in 5 years along with the all-time snowiest winter in Boulder. This is truly a sick hobby :lol:

All that said, there is something magical about a good MA snowstorm. I miss it.

Mid- you should go to Palisades Tahoe and experience a major 8 foot Sierran Blizzard! Those storms mean serious serious bisnass!!!!!

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I got a deep belly laugh out of our weather today.

1. NWS fooked up today's forecast. No rain, nothing on radar. Some activity in N TX.

2. Austin is cursed. La Nina will destroy us this year. No rain. Extreme heat, record temps.

3. NWS continues in delusions as they are forecasting as much as FOUR fracking inches tonight! This is beginning to remind me of Evan Almighty lmao.

Austin NWS is a complete unmitigated JOKE.

MY EXPERT FORECAST for today and tonight. Light winds. Cloudy maybe a sprinkle. Highs in the 70s and slightly humid with 66 degree dews.

Tonight light winds. Cloudy with 20 percent chance of showers. Possibly an eighth of an inch of water.

 

 

 

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All the rain is moving away. Rain hates Austin like ebola. We will get used to it, because La Nina will not spare. It probably won't rain again til 2036. Goodbye most plants. Goodbye most of us too. Been really nice knowing you all.

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8 hours ago, Jebman said:

All the rain is moving away. Rain hates Austin like ebola. We will get used to it, because La Nina will not spare. It probably won't rain again til 2036. Goodbye most plants. Goodbye most of us too. Been really nice knowing you all.

Dude. Save every penny you can so you can travel to Mammoth and run around digging tunnels and smoking weed in 8 feet of snow. 

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Steelers literally steal Justin Fields from the Bears for a 6th round pick in next years draft. I predicted this was gonna happen when they traded Pickett, but not for that meager price. There are bunch of teams that need a QB, and none were willing to give up a late round pick for this dude?

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Steelers literally steal Justin Fields from the Bears for a 6th round pick in next years draft. I predicted this was gonna happen when they traded Pickett, but not for that meager price. There are bunch of teams that need a QB, and none were willing to give up a late round pick for this dude?

It makes no sense why the Bears gave him away for nothing.  Fields was worth a lot more than that. 

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