frostfern Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 15 hours ago, mnchaserguy said: Also, how many times have we had a white Halloween and Easter and a green Christmas? . Possible up your way. The next system looks to immediately melt it all here. Kind of useless this time of year. I’ll take it now if April can flip back to warm / thunder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 19 outside as I leave for work. Chilly morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 Wagons north is the trend today. Should still provide hefty precip totals here even if in more liquid form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 It's the first day of Spring, so I thought it would be good to wrap up Winter data. Some data has yet to come in, but that is nothing unusual. Agencies report when they report. Feb 2024 is currently running in 2nd behind 1998 by a couple tenths. 1998 (6.074) & 2024 (5.803*) This will change when all data comes in later. How much is yet to be seen. 5 & 10 year trend charts shown respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 As for Winter 2023/24, it's currently 3rd by the slimmest of margins behind 1931/32. 1931/32 (4.479) & 2023/24 (4.459*). Once all Feb data comes in, we'll see how that goes. 5 & 10 year trend charts shown respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 @mississaugasnowYYZ has somehow surpassed 09-10 and 52-53 and is now sitting at 4th least snowiest on record. Friday's storm could make the difference if we surpass 06-07 or not. Won't change anything. This was winter was total horseshit. But glad we avoided a futility winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Every Twitter and Facebook metrologist needs to take the highlighted segment to heart. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Meh. Those who go into “storm cancelled” mode are so much worse than the weenies It’s weather, it’s fun, bring on the clown maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Looking like 3"-5" overnight and tomorrow. High end totals could push us out of even a top 20 least snowy winter. Crazy a winter this bad can look a little better than it seems when comparing to past duds. It is hard to imagine a winter with less snow than this but the historical record would say about 1 in every 6 has been this bad or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Even though under WWA expect maybe 1" of slop far SE McHenry. Maybe 2-3" up on the IL/WI border 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 some slop to end a terrible snow season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: some slop to end a terrible snow season Can't get out totally unscathed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Forecast discussion out of NWS DLH. Expecting a good ol' fashioned blizzard here on the North Shore. The main feature of the forecast is the expansive Colorado Low that is progged to arrive late Sunday and linger through early Wednesday. Latest guidance has pushed the arrival back several hours, and maybe decreased the overall QPF from the system a bit, but this still appears like it will be a significant system with long periods of heavy QPF in a cold air mass with strong northeast winds off of Lake Superior. I would expect blizzard conditions to develop along the North Shore with winds gusting to 45 to 50 mph in heavy snow. In terms of ensemble spread, the floor or minimum amounts of snow expected with this system are quite high at 6 to 9" over the most populated areas of our forecast area, the ceiling or maximum amount of snowfall expected are also quite high with over 2 feet possible (some locations may approach 30")! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 HRRR dropping further south each run around here. Might be able to cash in on a little action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 13 hours ago, Snowstorms said: @mississaugasnowYYZ has somehow surpassed 09-10 and 52-53 and is now sitting at 4th least snowiest on record. Friday's storm could make the difference if we surpass 06-07 or not. Won't change anything. This was winter was total horseshit. But glad we avoided a futility winter. A top 10 least snow is pretty bad lol. I think we see about 10cm or 4” Hamilton is still most likely a top 5 worst 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 @Snowstormsthis has potential to be biggest storm after March 15th in a generation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Getting a few flurries here in Maplewood (St. Paul suburb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toro99 Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 3 hours ago, WestMichigan said: Looking like 3"-5" overnight and tomorrow. High end totals could push us out of even a top 20 least snowy winter. Crazy a winter this bad can look a little better than it seems when comparing to past duds. It is hard to imagine a winter with less snow than this but the historical record would say about 1 in every 6 has been this bad or worse. GRR doing its Braveheart thing as usual..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Had a dusting of snow yesterday morning, just 0.1" here and at DTW but north of Detroit had anywhere from a half inch to as much as 1.5" near Flint. Was a cold and blustery day with windchills in the teens, classic strong nino wintry start to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 1 hour ago, mississaugasnow said: @Snowstormsthis has potential to be biggest storm after March 15th in a generation Wow. Just curious? What kind of numbers are you talking for it to be biggest in a generation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 4 hours ago, Cary67 said: Even though under WWA expect maybe 1" of slop far SE McHenry. Maybe 2-3" up on the IL/WI border Depends on where the F-Gen band sets up. Wherever it does, there will likely will be a corridor of up to 6", maybe even higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 MSP could end up with a top 5 snowiest March if the 2 (possibly 3) systems put out decently by Easter. If not MSP, some of the other stns across S MN sure could. 40.0 - 1951 37.1 - 1965 36.8 - 1985 29.9 - 1917 25.6 - 1940 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Three days ago the Euro was consistently showing 2-3" of rain across eastern Iowa from the upcoming big storm. This is what it has devolved into. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 didn't realize how dry the air was currently but dewpoint has been hanging between 2-5 degrees F this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 9 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Three days ago the Euro was consistently showing 2-3" of rain across eastern Iowa from the upcoming big storm. This is what it has devolved into. Looks like your being dry slotted now. Well, I say "Don't count your chicks before they hatch". Models, and reality are 2 separate things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 On 3/20/2024 at 2:45 PM, Brian D said: As for Winter 2023/24, it's currently 3rd by the slimmest of margins behind 1931/32. 1931/32 (4.479) & 2023/24 (4.459*). Once all Feb data comes in, we'll see how that goes. 5 & 10 year trend charts shown respectively. 1931-32 was definitely warmer for the southern lakes and Midwest, but I think for the upper Midwest 2023-24 was a bit warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Wow. Just curious? What kind of numbers are you talking for it to be biggest in a generation. If it can get to 6” or more it hasn’t happened in 20+ years this late in the season currently looking at about 3-6” on most models 4” or more starts to become a once every 5 years or so after March 15th So this storm if it can deliver is pretty rare for GTA Certainly El Niño style end of winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 18Z HRRR slid a bit south with band 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 P&C was bumped up to 4.1” imby for tonight’s event. NWS must think the heavier band will setup over the twin cities. We shall see. P&C is at 17” for the Sunday/Monday storm. Shocked it’s that high tbh. Models have been trending more frozen precip today but given the complexity of the setup I think it’ll be a nowcast type of storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 P&C was bumped up to 4.1” imby for tonight’s event. NWS must think the heavier band will setup over the twin cities. We shall see. P&C is at 17” for the Sunday/Monday storm. Shocked it’s that high tbh. Models have been trending more frozen precip today but given the complexity of the setup I think it’ll be a nowcast type of storm. MPX bumped up the zone area forecast for me in Anoka county up to 4-6” tonight. I’m real surprised no winter storm watches have been issued for this weekend anywhere yet. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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