Wednesday, February 28, 2024 Mild temperatures ahead of a Strong Arctic Cold Front with a Line of Rain and Thunderstorms Associated by Big Bad Wolf howling winds knocking down forests followed by Brief, but chilly Arctic Cold

[Brian5671]

26 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

The area is inverted with strong low level jet through the
afternoon. Winds have been running weaker than forecast so far
despite the strong winds aloft. Think winds will reach advisory
criteria everywhere with the cold front passage as strong cold
advection and mixing takes place. This is when 45 to 50 mph
gusts are likely around 7pm to around midnight. The low level
winds decrease thereafter as the pressure gradient relaxes.

Big ol bag of yawn.   our best winds come when there's no advisory at all LOL

[ineedsnow]

BOX upgraded to high wind warnings in far western zones. Not sure why 5mph won't make much difference 

[Damage In Tolland]

AWT

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

AWT

Still a advisory for us 

[CoastalWx]

Still looks like a brief window about 30-90 min post fropa of potentially strong winds 50mph or greater to me. I'm not sure it happens immediately after fropa since the lapse rates need to steepen first. Maybe someone gets a good gust with a squall on the front. Then, late morning into aftn perhaps with daytime heating and strong mixing. 

[Modfan2]

27 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Still a advisory for us 

I think winds here for me will be worse this afternoon/evening, only gusting to 45F; higher elevations in E CT have the better shot at 50

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

51.6° and 0.11" total so far.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Latest GYX snowfall maps have a huge difference in expected and 90th percentile totals. Not sure how there's even a 10% chance of getting to those totals, but I won't complain.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Still a advisory for us 

That’s fine. No worries about what NWS does lol. We know the drill with these. 50-60 + and outages 

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

3 hours ago, NoCORH4L said:

The 50s seem like the best years for weather, for exciting damage and heat anyway

It really is true. 1953 Worcester tornado, November 1950 storm, multiple hurricanes. I wish that same pattern would repeat in my lifetime but I'm not holding my breath.

[klw]

I was surprised to these maps as even an option for tonight.

 

I know it is just a 10 or less map but still a surprise to see

[CoastalWx]

Back up to 40ish now after a lull. Actually quite nice out lol. 55. 

[ineedsnow]

13 minutes ago, klw said:

I was surprised to these maps as even an option for tonight.

 

I know it is just a 10 or less map but still a surprise to see

Ya I don't get this at all.. even at a 10 percent chance.. there's no way

[Chrisrotary12]

NWS Max wind gust forecast: 39 mph LOL

 

[ineedsnow]

watertown was 61 two hours ago.. just looked at a webcam from there and there's light snow falling.. thats one heck of a front 

[Damage In Tolland]

Damage is coming!

Hanmer!

[Damage In Tolland]

1.13” today so far 

[Torch Tiger]

17 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

NWS Max wind gust forecast: 39 mph LOL

 

Remain alert, stay safe

[Torch Tiger]

15 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

watertown was 61 two hours ago.. just looked at a webcam from there and there's light snow falling.. thats one heck of a front 

Unless art is gusting like 80, nbd

[Damage In Tolland]

Charge those cell phones !

Get hype!

[Torch Tiger]

Yeah these 20mph gusts have got me concerned for life and property. Look out

[Damage In Tolland]

Glad we don’t live there 

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah these 20mph gusts have got me concerned for life and property. Look out

Highest gust I've seen to the west so far has been 51mph

[Chrisrotary12]

I’m more hyped for the lawn thread. 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Highest gust I've seen to the west so far has been 51mph

Multiple 60’s in C NY

[NoCORH4L]

Getting a few houses creakers now. We wait for the main show. 

[wx2fish]

1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

NWS Max wind gust forecast: 39 mph LOL

 

ASH obs always seem like a pit, but I think MHT will G50+. Good mixing after the front, one time we can actually gust 

[Modfan2]

Looking like a typical New England squall line, falling apart as it hit’s western NE

[Chrisrotary12]

Just now, wx2fish said:

ASH obs always seem like a pit, but I think MHT will G50+. Good mixing after the front, one time we can actually gust 

No doubt about ASH. Only thing we do well is heat. 

[Roger Smith]

Those mystery snow forecasts must be based on the premise that the arctic cold front, trailing a broken squall line now near Albany by 1-2 hours, will develop a significant line of convection too, and that will be all snow falling at high rates for an hour or so. Otherwise I would have expected a dry interval when temperatures begin to fall starting after a few flurries along the cold front, and sunny skies all day tomorrow with brisk westerly winds and possibly a few snowflakes falling from broken cumulus. I would guess 0.1" to 0.3" could fall in some places with the arctic front and upslope effects in parts of VT could increase it to 2" locally. 

Squall line could be hit or miss, potential for brief gusts to 60 but some places could top out at 40.