Wednesday, February 28, 2024 Mild temperatures ahead of a Strong Arctic Cold Front with a Line of Rain and Thunderstorms Associated by Big Bad Wolf howling winds knocking down forests followed by Brief, but chilly Arctic Cold

[weatherwiz]

A true cold front, that's what we have moving across the country as the calendar soon says goodbye to February and hello to March. This February happens to be a leap year and this week we giant a giant leap into spring. Ahead of an approaching strong Arctic cold front an unseasonably mild airmass will be in place. Wednesday could even feature a few daily record high temperatures within the region. With a vigorous trough moving into the Northeast Wednesday strong dynamics will overspread the region with a stout southerly jet advecting in an unseasonably rich theta-e in the lower-levels of the atmosphere. 

Scattered-to-numerous showers are likely Wednesday with gusty winds, likely in the 25-40 mph range. The bigger story, however, will be during the evening as a line of rain and embedded thunderstorms out ahead of the front move across the region. Combination of weak instability, strong jet dynamics, and intense forcing will likely promote the potential for brief, but damaging wind gusts ALONG THE LEADING EDGE of the precipitation. Wind gusts of 50-65 mph will be possible along this line. Right after the leading edge, heavy rain continues, however, winds subside rapidly and may almost be calm for a bit before gusting in the 20-30 mph range. 

The next set of fun occurs as the strong Arctic cold front moves through with temperatures crashing instantly. In fact, there is a decent probability for rain to either end as snow or for an elongated line of snow to develop along or just behind the front. This could cause some issues with the potential for flash freezing...and true flash freezing (which is usually overplayed in these parts). We then enter the CAA winds, where widespread and prolonged wind gusts of 40-60 mph are likely. 

Scattered-to-numerous power outages are becoming increasingly likely with the greatest occurrence of outages associated with the CAA winds. It is also possible we see an introduction of a MARGINAL risk by the SPC for the potential of damaging wind gusts along the leading edge of the rain/thunderstorms ahead of the strong cold front. 

The big bad Wolf is going to be huffing, puffing, and blowing down our forests. 

[SJonesWX]

thread title tl;dr

[NoCORH4L]

18 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

thread title tl;dr

Tip, is that you starting this thread? 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

NWS is calling for 50 mph gusts here Wednesday night. More pinecones shall be flung all over the yard at a minimum I suppose. There's hundreds - if not thousands - to be picked up and/or mowed over already. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Phil on his way with saws and blood

 

[ineedsnow]

should be a fun 4am drive Thursday morning 

 

These
post frontal winds may result in west winds gusting up to 60 mph,
with the highest prob (30-40%) across western and central MA.
Confidence not high enough yet for a high wind watch, but possible
later shifts if guidance trends upward along with clustering of
model solutions. Situational ensemble tables from NAEFS and ECMWF
both have wind anomalies around +3 to +4. Let`s see how that trends
over the next 12-24 hours. Strongest winds will occur with this wind
shift Wed night. Strong winds likely continue into at least early
Thu given magnitude of CAA. If power outages happen Wed night,
gusty winds greater than 35 mph Thu could impact power
restoration.

 

Snow/Flash Freeze potential...

Model soundings suggest rain may briefly end as snow, with less than
an inch possible. However, the combination of temps falling rapidly
from the 50s into the 20s in 1-2 hours, combined with any light snow
accums and any residual road moisture freezing, slippery travel is
possible Wed night.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I've got a popsicle headache just from the thread title

[wxeyeNH]

I just read the Gray Maine discussion and it seems pretty meh.....

Wednesday will likely be the warmest day of the week, high
temperature records look like they could be broken Wednesday in
Augusta. 40-50 mph winds are anticipated along the coast, with
up to strong gale force winds likely over the open waters
overnight Wednesday.

A cold front moves across the region Wednesday night, bringing rain
and a little bit of snow Thursday morning. The very warm
temperatures look to release a substantial amount of snowpack across
interior NH and Maine. The added snowmelt on top of the rainfall
expected Wednesday and Thursday could cause some river rises
and ice movement.

Thursday looks to be a brisk and chilly day. However, as the winds
diminish later on Thursday night, high pressure returns to the
region and ridging continues through the weekend. We are looking at
a warm and dry start to March.

[#NoPoles]

5 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

A true cold front, that's what we have moving across the country as the calendar soon says goodbye to February and hello to March. This February happens to be a leap year and this week we giant a giant leap into spring. Ahead of an approaching strong Arctic cold front an unseasonably mild airmass will be in place. Wednesday could even feature a few daily record high temperatures within the region. With a vigorous trough moving into the Northeast Wednesday strong dynamics will overspread the region with a stout southerly jet advecting in an unseasonably rich theta-e in the lower-levels of the atmosphere. 

Scattered-to-numerous showers are likely Wednesday with gusty winds, likely in the 25-40 mph range. The bigger story, however, will be during the evening as a line of rain and embedded thunderstorms out ahead of the front move across the region. Combination of weak instability, strong jet dynamics, and intense forcing will likely promote the potential for brief, but damaging wind gusts ALONG THE LEADING EDGE of the precipitation. Wind gusts of 50-65 mph will be possible along this line. Right after the leading edge, heavy rain continues, however, winds subside rapidly and may almost be calm for a bit before gusting in the 20-30 mph range. 

The next set of fun occurs as the strong Arctic cold front moves through with temperatures crashing instantly. In fact, there is a decent probability for rain to either end as snow or for an elongated line of snow to develop along or just behind the front. This could cause some issues with the potential for flash freezing...and true flash freezing (which is usually overplayed in these parts). We then enter the CAA winds, where widespread and prolonged wind gusts of 40-60 mph are likely. 

Scattered-to-numerous power outages are becoming increasingly likely with the greatest occurrence of outages associated with the CAA winds. It is also possible we see an introduction of a MARGINAL risk by the SPC for the potential of damaging wind gusts along the leading edge of the rain/thunderstorms ahead of the strong cold front. 

The big bad Wolf is going to be huffing, puffing, and blowing down our forests. 

I thought this was the hoe-down blow-down thread?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I've got a popsicle headache just from the thread title

I thought it was Tip

[weatherwiz]

32 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

I thought this was the hoe-down blow-down thread?

This is! 

[HoarfrostHubb]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I thought it was Tip

It wasn’t burgeoning enough

[CoastalWx]

Pretty dynamic system. Whole area easily wind advisory imo based on soundings. I think HWW gusts in spots for sure. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty dynamic system. Whole area easily wind advisory imo based on soundings. I think HWW gusts in spots for sure. 

You’d guess they hoist HWW regionwide 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You’d guess they hoist HWW regionwide 

lol I doubt that. But soundings in almost all areas get close to 50kt potential. Some areas will exceed it.

[NoCORH4L]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You’d guess they hoist HWW regionwide 

 

[weatherwiz]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

lol I doubt that. But soundings in almost all areas get close to 50kt potential. Some areas will exceed it.

have some HWW from Berkshire/Hamden/Hampshire/Franklin 

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

Not often do you see a HWW for western areas but not eastern.

[CoastalWx]

23 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Not often do you see a HWW for western areas but not eastern.

Bit of a downslope signal on east side of Berks. My guess is SE MA gets upgraded. 

[Cold Miser]

Did Tip help you write the topic heading?  I fell asleep reading it.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, NoCORH4L said:

 

We hope each town and lawn has some 

[weatherwiz]

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Bit of a downslope signal on east side of Berks. My guess is SE MA gets upgraded. 

HRRR shows this well

[weatherwiz]

3km NAM has a LES streamer all the way through Connecticut Thursday  

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Haha, some of you guys need to read more or something. Tip's style of writing is completely different from Weatherwiz's style. To give my favorite non-explanation - you can tell because of the way it is.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

3km NAM has a LES streamer all the way through Connecticut Thursday  

Ha, I saw that. Originating in Lake Huron, jetting across that part of Ontario where they've drawn up the road grid all wonky, getting a boost over Lake Ontario, then exiting at the southern tip of Rhode Island. Behold, the power streamer!

[Sn0waddict]

NWS Upton:

 

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The region is in the warm sector of this system on Wednesday
ahead of the incoming trough and cold frontal passage late
Wednesday evening and night. A tightening pressure gradient at
the surface and a strengthening LLJ, progged around 65 to 75 kt
at 925 mb Wednesday afternoon will lead to gusty conditions at
the surface. Soundings continue to indicate a strong inversion
that should cut down the strength of these gusts at the surface,
but likely still allow gusts to exceed 35 kt, especially as the
cold front advances east. Wind Advisory is possible at least
for eastern coastal areas, but still some time left to fine tune
this. Rain showers will be ongoing Wednesday morning and likely
continue intermittently through the day, although a complete
washout is not expected.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Haha, some of you guys need to read more or something. Tip's style of writing is completely different from Weatherwiz's style. To give my favorite non-explanation - you can tell because of the way it is.

Is that an Aspen tree?

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Is that an Aspen tree?

Neat! For the uninitiated...

 

[ineedsnow]

BOX including Worcester county in the HWW now.. not surprised

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Lol.