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March 2024 temperature forecast contest


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Table of forecasts for March 2024

 

Forecaster __________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN_PHX _SEA

 

RJay _______________________________ +6.0 _+6.0 _+6.0 __ +6.0 _+3.0 _+2.5 ___ 0.0 _-0.8 __0.0 

rainsucks ___________________________+4.7 _+5.3 _+5.5 __ +7.5 _+2.0 _+2.4 ___+2.5 _-1.0 _+0.7 

Roger Smith ________________________+3.6 _+4.5 _+6.2 __ +7.0 _+4.5 _+3.0 __ +1.5 _-1.0 _-0.4

DonSutherland1 ____________________+3.5 _+4.8 _+4.5 __ +5.5 _+1.8 _+0.9 __ -0.5 _-2.0 _+0.2

wxallannj ___________________________+3.1 _+3.6 _+3.9 __ +2.8 _+2.2 _+2.0 __ +0.4 _-1.1 _ -1.5

Tom ________________________________+2.8 _+3.1 _+3.2 __ +3.5 _+1.8 _+1.9 __ +1.6 _+0.9 _+0.8

 

___ Consensus ______________________+2.8 _+3.0 _+3.1 __ +3.2 _+1.7 _+1.8 __ +0.5 _-0.9 _+0.1

 

hudsonvalley21 _____________________+2.7 _+2.9 _+2.5 __ +2.7 _+1.3 _+1.6 __ +0.9 _+0.1 _+0.3

BKViking ____________________________+2.2 _+2.3 _+2.4 __ +2.0 _+1.1 _+1.2 __ +0.5 _+0.1 _+0.3 

so_whats_happening _______________+2.1 _+2.8 _+3.0 __ +4.4 _+0.8 _+0.1 ___ -0.8 _-2.3 _-0.6

RodneyS ___________________________ +1.6 _+2.5 _+2.5 __ +1.3 _+0.4 _+1.3 ___ -0.5 _-1.5 _-2.1 

Scotty Lightning ____________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 __0.0

wxdude64 __________________________+0.8 _+1.4 _+1.7 __ +0.9 _-0.4 _-0.5 ___ -0.3 _-0.8 _+1.6  

Normal ______________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0

 

Persistence (Feb 2024) _____________+4.4 _+4.2_ +3.4 __+10.7 _+4.6 _+4.2 __+4.9 _+1.5 _+0.3

==========================================

Normal is colder than all forecasters for DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD. 

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Tracking anomalies so far ... 

 

____________________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN_ PHX _ SEA

______ (17d) ___________________+9.5_+10.0 _+6.3 __+10.4_ +5.3 _+6.2 __ +0.6 _-0.9 _-1.6

______ (26d) __________________ +5.1 _ +5.7 _+3.4 ___ +6.1 _ +3.1 _+3.4 __ -0.4 _ -1.0 __0.0

______ (p31d anom) ___________+4.5 _ +5.0 _+3.0 ___ +5.0 _ +3.0 _+3.0 __ 0.0 _-0.5 _ 0.0

______ final anomalies _________+4.3 _ +5.3 _+3.7 ___ +5.0 _ +3.2 _+3.0 __-0.2 _-1.2 _+0.1

 

____________________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ___ DEN _SEA _BTV

Snowfall (to 03-31) ___________ 8.0 _ 7.5 _ 9.7 ____ 22.2 _ 23.5 _ 70.8 ___ 38.3 _ 0.3 _ 50.8

 

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11 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Tracking anomalies so far ... 

 

____________________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN_ PHX _ SEA

______ (17d) ___________________+9.5 _+10.0 _+6.3 __+10.4 _+5.3 _+6.2 __ +0.6 _-0.9 _-1.6

______ (p31d anom) ___________+5.0 _ +5.0 _ +3.5 __ +6.5 _ +3.5 _+4.0 __ +1.5 _+0.5 _+0.5

 

____________________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ___ DEN _SEA _BTV

Snowfall _______________________ 8.0 _ 7.5 _ 9.7 ____ 21.2 _ 22.9 _ 61.7 ___ 35.1 _ 0.3 _ 38.9

 

well then that is one pitiful snow season. Had a feeling it would be bad but not this bad.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 3/19/2024 at 2:18 AM, so_whats_happening said:

well then that is one pitiful snow season. Had a feeling it would be bad but not this bad.

I updated snowfall totals today, BTV saw a bit of a jump but in any case, an update to contest standings follows: 

 

 

*** __ 2023-2024 Winter Snowfall Contest __ ***

 

Forecaster ___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

 

wxdude64 ____________________________22.9 _ 30.2 _ 44.6 __ 22.2 _ 31.5 _ 88.3 ___ 54.3 __ 7.8 __ 71.4

RJay _________________________________ 22.0 _ 30.0 _ 44.0 __ 20.0 _ 25.0 _ 99.0 ___ 61.0 __ 4.0 __ 80.0

BKViking _____________________________ 19.0 _ 28.0 _ 37.0 __ 20.0 _ 17.0 __ 95.0 ___ 59.0 __ 4.1 __ 86.0

wxallannj _____________________________ 19.0 _ 27.0 _ 30.0 __ 38.0 _ 35.0 _ 97.0 ___ 41.0 __ 9.0 __ 75.0

Tom ___________________________________18.7 _ 32.6 _ 44.7 __ 37.2 _ 34.6 _ 97.8 ___ 51.6 __ 4.1 __ 73.2

Roger Smith __________________________ 18.5 _ 33.8 _ 54.1 __ 40.3 _ 48.4 _ 89.2 ___ 45.0 __ 3.0 __79.3

___ Consensus ____ (median) __________18.5 _ 27.0 _ 37.0 __ 30.0 _ 34.5 _ 89.2 ___ 54.3 __ 4.1 __ 77.0

so_whats_happening __________________18.0 _ 26.0 _ 41.0 __ 28.0 _ 35.0 _ 78.0 ___ 40.0 __ 7.0 __ 87.0

Scotty Lightning ______________________ 16.0 _ 21.0 _ 33.0 __ 43.0 _ 31.0 _103.0 ___ 41.0 __ 5.0 __ 86.0

hudsonvalley21 _______________________ 12.0 _ 31.0 _ 30.5 __ 33.5 _ 32.5 _ 68.5 ___ 59.5 __ 5.5 __ 77.0

DonSutherland1 _______________________ 11.5 _ 15.0 _ 27.5 ___27.0 _ 38.5 _ 85.0 ___ 56.5 __ 1.2 ___70.0

RodneyS _______________________________ 6.7 _ 12.9 _ 24.3 __ 30.0 _ 34.5 _ 79.9 ___ 65.4 __ 3.9 __ 64.3

 

Snowfall to date _ (04-25) ____________ 8.0 __ 7.5 ___ 9.8 ___ 22.2 _ 23.5 _ 71.3 ___ 44.6 ___0.3 __ 60.8

-------------------------------------

 

Snowfall errors to date

(in most cases, error is an overprediction and can be reduced by future snowfall, exceptions are underlined and these errors can increase) ...

 

Forecaster ___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ Total (rank)

wxdude64 ____________________________14.9 _ 22.7 _ 34.8 ___ 0.0 __ 8.0 _ 17.0 ____ 9.7 __ 7.5 __ 10.6 ___ 125.2 (5) 

RJay _________________________________ 14.0 _ 22.5 _ 34.2 ___ 2.2 __ 1.5 _ 27.7 ___ 16.4 __ 3.7 __ 19.2 ___ 141.4 (9) 

BKViking _____________________________ 11.0 _ 20.5 _ 27.2 ___ 2.2 __ 6.5 __ 23.7 __ 14.4 __ 3.8 __25.2 ___ 134.5 (7) 

wxallannj _____________________________ 11.0 _ 19.5 _ 20.2 __ 15.8 _ 11.5 __ 25.7 ____3.6 __ 8.7 __ 14.2 ___ 130.2 (6)

Tom ___________________________________10.7 _ 25.1 _ 34.9 __ 15.0 _ 11.1 __ 26.5 ___ 7.0 __ 3.8 __ 12.4 ___ 146.5 (10)

Roger Smith __________________________ 10.5 _ 26.3 _ 44.3 __ 18.1 _24.9 _ 17.9 ____ 0.4 __ 2.7 __ 18.5 ___ 163.6 (11)

___ Consensus ____ (median) __________10.5 _ 19.5 _ 27.2 ___ 7.8 _ 11.0 __ 17.9 ____ 9.7 __ 3.8 __ 16.2 ___ 123.6 (4.6)

so_whats_happening __________________10.0 _ 18.5 _ 31.2 ___ 5.8 _ 11.5 ___ 6.7 ____ 4.6 __ 6.7 __ 26.2 ___ 121.2 (4)

Scotty Lightning _______________________ 8.0 _ 13.5 _ 23.2 __ 20.8 __7.5 __31.7 ____ 3.6 __ 4.7 __ 25.2 ___ 138.2 (8)

hudsonvalley21 ________________________ 4.0 _ 23.5 _ 20.7 __ 11.3 __ 9.0 _ 2.8 ____ 14.9 __5.2 __ 16.2 ___ 107.6 (3)

DonSutherland1 ________________________3.5 __ 7.5 __ 17.7 ___ 4.8 _ 15.0 _ 13.7 ____ 11.9 __ 0.9 ___9.2 ____ 84.2 (2)

RodneyS _______________________________ 1.3 __ 5.4 _ 14.5 ___ 7.8 __ 11.0 __ 8.6 ____20.8 __ 3.6 __ 3.5____ 76.5 (1)

======================================

At this stage, further snow is only likely in DEN and BTV but could occur at other locations.

(edit Apr 26)

Rodney's lead is not threatened by any outcomes for DEN as he actually has largest error there now, so can never increase error differential against any other forecaster. It's the other way around for BTV but RodneyS is not in danger of transferring error differentials until at least 3.5" further snow there, but if that happened, each further inch represents a 2" transfer to DonS until potentially 5.7 x 2 (11.4) is transferred, so Don would theoretically move ahead of RodneyS if 7.3" more snow falls at BTV. RodneyS can also lose ground if BUF gets a further 8.7 to 13.7 inches, but if BTV is not delivering any transfers to Don, BUF alone requires 12.4" additional for Don to move ahead; however if BTV is part way into the 13.5-19.2 inch range of further snow, that plus the BUF snow above 8.6" extra can be treated as aggregately equal to previous analysis of BTV or BUF differential (they need to add up to 3.8" more than RodneyS current deficits and both need to be above). DTW would participate also in overall potential if it gets beyond 11.0" more snow, and NYC, BOS would be in play in unlikely event of 6" or greater at NYC and 15" at BOS. ORD cannot hurt RodneyS's lead either.  Third place currently hudsonvalley21 probably has one possible route to a higher finish but needs snow at ORD and BTV with no snow at DTW and BUF (an unlikely combination); so_whats_happening has one potential way forward, a lot of snow at BTV. If it (had) turned out very snowy there in April, the required potential gain on RodneyS would be found at 21.5" more snow, avoiding large falls at various locations where RodneyS has 2-3" protective differentials that could reduce gains.

Also, wxallannj could in theory finish first or very close to first by hitting all required snow at several locations notably BUF and BTV. Anyone above fifth probably has no potential way of getting into this conversation without never-before-seen snowfalls at BOS or other locations.

Transferring this post to April thread at end of April. 

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Final Scoring for March 2024

 

Forecaster _______________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA_west___ TOTAL

 

Anomalies (est) __________________+4.3_+5.3_+3.7 ____+5.0_+3.2_+2.8 ___ ___ ____-0.2 _-1.2 _+0.1

 

RJay ______________________________ 66 86 _ 54 _ 206 _ 80 _ 96 _ 94 _ 270 _476 _ 96 _ 92 _ 98_ 286 ___ 762

DonSutherland1 ___________________84 _ 90 _ 84 _ 258 _ 90 _ 72 _ 62 _ 224 _ 482 _ 94 _ 84 _ 98 _ 276 ___ 758

wxallannj __________________________76 _ 66 _ 96 _ 238 __ 56 _ 80 _ 84 _ 220 _ 458 _ 88 _ 98 _ 68 _ 254 ___ 712

 

___ Consensus _____________________70 _ 54 _ 88 _ 212 _ 64 _ 70 _ 80 _ 214 _ 426 _  86 _ 94 _100 _ 280___ 706

 

rainsucks __________________________92 _100 _64 _ 256 _ 50 _ 76 _ 92 _ 218 _ 474 46 _ 96 _ 88 _ 230 ___ 704 

Roger Smith _______________________86 _ 84 _ 50 _ 220 _ 60 _ 74 96 _ 230 _ 450 __66 _ 96 _ 90 _ 252 ___ 702

Tom _______________________________ 70 _ 56 _ 90 _ 216 __ 70 _ 72 _ 82 _ 224 _ 440 _ 64 _ 58 _ 86 _ 208 ___648

hudsonvalley21 ____________________ 68 _ 52 _ 76 _ 196 _ 54 _ 62 _ 76 _ 192 _ 388 _ 78 _ 74 _ 96 _ 248 ___ 636

so_whats_happening _______________56 _ 50 _ 86 _ 192 _ 88 _ 52 _ 46 _ 186 _ 378 _ 88 78 _ 86 _ 252 ___ 630

BKViking ___________________________ 58 _ 40 _ 74 _ 172 _ 40 _ 58 _ 68 _ 166 _ 338 _ 86 _ 74 _ 96 _ 256 ___ 594 

RodneyS ___________________________ 46 _ 44 _ 76 _ 166 _ 26 _ 44 _ 70 _ 140 _ 306 __94 _ 94 _ 56 _ 244 ___550 

Scotty Lightning ____________________34 _ 14 _ 46 _ 094 _ 20 _ 66 _ 84 _ 170 _  264 _ 86 _56 98_ 240 ___ 504

wxdude64 __________________________30 _ 22 _ 60 _ 112 __ 18 28 _ 34 __080 _ 192 __98 _ 92 _70 _260 ___ 452  

Normal ______________________________14 _ 00 _ 26 _ 040 _ 00 _ 36 _ 44 _ 080 _ 120 __ 96 _76 _ 98 _ 270 ___ 390

 

Persistence (Feb 2024) _____________98 _ 78 _ 94 _ 270 _ 00 _ 72 _ 72 _ 144 __ 414 _ 00 _ 46 _ 96 _ 142 ___ 556

==================================

 

Extreme forecast report

DCA, NYC _ wins for rainsucks and losses for RJay

BOS, ORD, DEN, PHX, SEA _ do not qualify

ATL _ A win for RJay and a loss for Roger Smith 

IAH _ A win for Roger Smith 

 

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<<<< ===[]===[] .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-Mar 2024 ==== ..........[]===[]=== >>>> 

 

wxallannj _______________ 196 _184 _242 __ 622 __150 _222 _150 __ 522 _1144 __200 _274 _254 __728_____1872

rainsucks _______________276 _294 _242 __812__ 153 _180 _148 __ 481 _1293 __ 80 _206 _236 __ 522 _____1815

DonSutherland1 ________200 _200 _214 __ 614 __ 210 _206 _136 __ 552 _1166 __192 _242 _200 __634 _____1800

___ Consensus _________ 182 _154_210 __546 __184_208 _144 __536 _1082 __142 _252 _258 __ 652_____1734

RJay ____________________197 _200 _185 __ 582 __177 _206 _ 110 __ 493 _1075 __ 172 _225 _217 __ 614 _____1689 (1736)*

so_whats_happening ___ 178 _162 _224 __ 564 __187 _180 _106 __ 473 _1037 __ 182 _ 206 _248 __636 _____1673 

hudsonvalley21 _________194 _150 _200 __ 544 __158 _188 _154 __ 500 _1044 __ 116 _206 _278 __ 600 _____1644

RodneyS ________________114 _152 _196 __ 462 __ 155 _164 _164 __ 483 _ 945 __204 _238 _234 __676 _____ 1621

BKViking ________________188 _156 _210 __ 554 __126 _184 _120 __ 430 _ 984 __ 144 _ 232 _234__ 610 _____1594

Tom _____________________132 _100 _158 __ 390 __116 _176 _132 __ 424 _ 814 __ 106 _ 218 _ 238 __ 562 _____1376

Scotty Lightning ________130 _ 74 _104 __ 308 __ 78 _ 196 _152 __ 426 _ 734 ___128 _216 _282 __ 626 _____1360

wxdude64 _______________84 _ 88 _152 __ 324 __130 _ 150 _108 __ 388 _ 712 __ 168 _222 _242 __ 632 _____1344

Roger Smith _____________130 _108 _ 82 __ 320 __158 _169 _118 __ 445 _ 765 ___ 86 _ 194 _156 __ 436 _____ 1201

Normal __________________ 80 _ 50 _ 94 __ 224 __ 78 _ 170 _102 __ 350 _ 574 ___ 128 _226 _272 __ 626 _____1200

 

Stormchaser Chuck (2/3)_68 _98 _128 __ 294 __ 110 _ 00 _ 00 __ 110 __ 404 __ 62 _ 190 _ 136 __ 388 _____ 792

Rhino16 (2/3) ____________ 50 _ 22 _ 36 __ 108 __ 103 _118 _ 56 __ 277 __ 385 __ 48 _ 158 _ 156 __ 362 _____ 747

 

* (note: tracking RJay raw score before Feb late penalty of 47 pts ... at current scoring, would not affect ranks)

 

Persistence _____________222 _212 _252 __ 686 __ 10 _144 _ 74 __ 228 _ 914 ___ 00 _ 096 _ 180 __ 276 ____ 1190

-----------------------------------

 

 

Best forecasts

 

* tied wins (one per * ) ^ 3 forecasters tied (plus Consensus and normal -- SEA for 2024-03) 

 

FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL 

wxallannj ________________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*___0 ____ 1 ______ 0 

rainsucks ________________2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 1 _ Feb 

DonSutherland1 _________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 

___ Consensus _________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 _____ 0 

RJay _____________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^ ____1 ______ 1 _ Mar 

so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 

hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 

RodneyS ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _ Jan

BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______0 

wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 

Tom _____________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0  

Scotty Lightning _________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 

Roger Smith _____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 

Normal __________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 

Stormchaser Chuck _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____0 ______ 0 

Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ______ 0 

 

EXTREmE  FORECAST  REPORT 

so far, a total of 16 qualified (14 for warmest, 2 for coldest) ... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0, Mar 4-0. 

* tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col.

FORECASTER _______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar __ TOTAL __ adj for ties

rainsucks ____________________ 2-0 _ 4-0 _ 2-0 ___ 8-0

wxdude64 ___________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-0

DonSutherland1 ______________0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-0

Scotty Lightning _____________ 0-0 _ 2*-0_0-0 ___ 2-0 ___ 1.5 - 0

RodneyS _____________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-0

hudsonvalley21 ______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-0

wxallannj _____________________0-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 ___ 1-0 ___ 0.5 - 0

___ Consensus _______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-0

Roger Smith __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 ___ 1-1

RJay _________________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-2 ___ 1-2

BKViking _____________________ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 ___ 0-1

Stormchaser Chuck __________ 0-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-2

Tom, Rhino16, swh ______________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-0

 

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