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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The irony is that the airmass that is modeled is colder than anything I can recall that tried to show a wintry evolution in January or February. That is LOL-tastic. Right or not...I had to laugh. 

Yeah.. I told "Sey-Mour hopes and warm dreams" that I thought the Euro might be experimenting but that is too much of a whopper suggestion from these EPO/PNA formulating out of every technological method there is at disposal to the field of prognostic science, and art, to ignore...

We'll see what it can do when up against seasonality and sun.  I've been pounding out keyboards as of late that the models tend to under-evaluate these factors and seem to regress their solutions out in time... But this signal has just become overbearing at this point - I almost wonder if the opposite might be kinda true.

 

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24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The irony is that the airmass that is modeled is colder than anything I can recall that tried to show a wintry evolution in January or February. That is LOL-tastic. Right or not...I had to laugh. 

Classic ratter winter-the cold pattern shows up late March/early April...

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31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The irony is that the airmass that is modeled is colder than anything I can recall that tried to show a wintry evolution in January or February. That is LOL-tastic. Right or not...I had to laugh. 

Yup, that’s very true. Gives this a bit more credence at the moment. We watch for now. 

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31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah.. I told "Sey-Mour hopes and warm dreams" that I thought the Euro might be experimenting but that is too much of a whopper suggestion from these EPO/PNA formulating out of every technological method there is at disposal to the field of prognostic science, and art, to ignore...

We'll see what it can do when up against seasonality and sun.  I've been pounding out keyboards as of late that the models tend to under-evaluate these factors and seem to regress their solutions out in time... But this signal has just become overbearing at this point - I almost wonder if the opposite might be kinda true.

 

I hoped the warmth into existence today 66-70 around the area currently. 
 

After the quick shot of impressive cold for late March we will mild back up.  Everything has trended less anomalous and more progressive as we close in on time this winter. I still think we flip back to at or above normal last week of March. 

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58 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I hoped the warmth into existence today 66-70 around the area currently. 
 

After the quick shot of impressive cold for late March we will mild back up.  Everything has trended less anomalous and more progressive as we close in on time this winter. I still think we flip back to at or above normal last week of March. 

Oh, if I had my druthers?   right there with you.  I don't care much for the cold and snow and winter fairs ... really once the calendar passes about February 20th every year.

Obviously history is adorned with other ideas through March and sometimes April. Hell, in 1976 there was a 15" in the Worcester Hills in May. I didn't say my personal druthers were necessarily realistic.  

Anyway, I don't deny the seasonal trend but therein is some trouble. I'm seeing changes in the daily operational handling of the hemispheric circulation mode that allow aspects to slow - or are trying to.  The those changes introduce some question in trend reliance. GFS has always been both the best at conserving speed/shearing/progression, while being the worst offender at over promoting it.   But specifically ...there is a tendency for the N/stream to be less dictating on the flow behavior beneath 40N... That allows opportunity for S/W of southern origin to come up and under cold loading in a different total behavior compared to that velocity BS in mid winter. 

( which by the way ...that is proven - yet again ... - to be a plague during this winter season, regardless of whatever telecon or leading seasonal indicator, too.   Digress ... )

I'm also providing some avenue out by saying 'we monitor' - just out of deference to sun and seasonality ...etc.  

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2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Glad we live here today .. just shined up the ram .. headed to msg soon to watch UConn. Will be a nice day in the city 

Go UConn! I see the forecast bumped up for tomorrow too, mid to upper 50s with sun. While not 70, it will still feel great

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1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I hoped the warmth into existence today 66-70 around the area currently. 
 

After the quick shot of impressive cold for late March we will mild back up.  Everything has trended less anomalous and more progressive as we close in on time this winter. I still think we flip back to at or above normal last week of March. 

What a difference a couple of hundred miles makes. :cry:

image.png.54aa1be6be3a585771e686b20a5967c1.png

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