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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Looking for the day ten Torch twins. Now down to day 7. Just like winter eh. We knew models underestimated cold.  Again Does not mean snow here.

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We tried to tell em…but yet they persist.  They gonna go down in flames.  

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I have zero trust in Euro it’s an outlier as of now in terms of sustained cold. The way I see it is we cool down next 7-10 days to at or just below normal with maybe one really cold day and a wintry threat.  then hopefully warm up last week of March to a tad above normal at least. First half of March will end up +9 to + 12 for many after we touch 60 first half today which is wild. 

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m still skeptical, but the models are showing some wintry type deal 23-25 or so.

Very prudent to be skeptical, agreed.  However on the other hand that’s been pretty consistent for some time now. So there’s something there… 

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Very prudent to be skeptical, agreed.  However on the other hand that’s been pretty consistent for some time now. So there’s something there… 

Def a big storm signal there. Let’s see what we get, there is cold available to tap too .. wouldn’t mind one last snow event then let’s go back to 60s last week of March! 

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41 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Def a big storm signal there. Let’s see what we get, there is cold available to tap too .. wouldn’t mind one last snow event then let’s go back to 60s last week of March! 

Yes I’m with you…if there’s a big threat bring it…especially with cold to tap into, which we haven’t really seen all season(two season’s actually lol).  Then let it get nice again. 

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7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes I’m with you…if there’s a big threat bring it…especially with cold to tap into, which we haven’t really seen all season)two season’s actually lol).  Then let it get nice again. 

I'll start taking a mild interest after the weekend if it looks for real...otherwise, I have been checked out for about a month.

 

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1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I have zero trust in Euro it’s an outlier as of now in terms of sustained cold. The way I see it is we cool down next 7-10 days to at or just below normal with maybe one really cold day and a wintry threat.  then hopefully warm up last week of March to a tad above normal at least. First half of March will end up +9 to + 12 for many after we touch 60 first half today which is wild. 

I noticed NE Pac is -0 850 C all the way down to San Francisco latitude when looking over the 00z operational version... is that what y'all's talkin' 'bout?

It's suddenly reverted back to a January 20th climatology look in the wholesale complexion of the hemisphere - I saw the model do this last year around this time.  Because this latter experience, and the fact that it just looks climate bogus ...I'm also inclined to suspect it. 

The thing is, the GFS and GGEM also looked like they're saddling the cold lower into middle latitudes, too - just not as much...   These tech sources share grid inputs.  They purchase it from one another... when they really should just have that be open source if they had a f'ing modicum of virtuosity outside of economic "automatonic" drones ( another idealistic rage for another time lol). At least they use to sell it...

Anyway, I'm wondering if there's something in the "global initialization" that is either real or fake. 

I do still suggest watching the 20-25th for perhaps a season's last gasp at something. 

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That's a classic little critter on the D5 ( 00z EURO).   ...easily overlooked.  That could have a wad of activity capable of 3 hours of moderate or even borderline heavy that starts as sprinkles of rain and then boof!  Did someone bust open a down pillow?

It's not showing much continuity run to run so... probably just a noisy solution

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1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Def a big storm signal there. Let’s see what we get, there is cold available to tap too .. wouldn’t mind one last snow event then let’s go back to 60s last week of March! 

The last week intrigues me. That has potential for a triple phaser. Where when how TBD

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Put mine away in the shed this week. Winter and snow long over . Let them chase another fail 

You’ll be on board fully if and when it starts to become real, who the hell are you kidding. We’ll Just watch. 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Put mine away in the shed this week. Winter and snow long over . Let them chase another fail 

Yes, Mine is getting its transformation to mowing season, Mowing deck and bagging system.

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Yeah... I dunno.   I wanna be on the other side of the 7 straight days of -3 SD EPO before any personal ambitions and/or confidences in spring begin to blossom...  

Seasonality and sun will offset that some, but that is a  refriken cold signal.  CC or not ... we've had big wintry events up here in the nordic wasteland of "spring New England" quite late, during lesser large scale indicators.  I get it that the winter sucked so bad that people are perhaps jaded beyond the point of rational thought in the matter - nevertheless, there's nothing untrue in that history, nor what these present mass fields are progged to do.  Mid levels are going to get cold all the way down to mid latitudes over the continent next week -

The antecedent +PNA tries at neutralizing, but I suspect that's more to do with the initial stressing on the pattern by the -EPO burst/onset, which tries to back drill hgts west of 100W, initially. But the PNA index beyond is still bouncing around neutral, so that' probably cold loading over top some sort of trough ejections S of 40 N, and well...that's what the actualized sfc charts are doing.  

If this were Feb 5, we'd be probably already be threading a major.   For now, ...we monitor.  But keeping one's subjective desires of the season and whatever out of it, that's too impressive a signal and if your visions of green lawns and maple blossom aromas are writing your internal narratives ... you may want to refer to Maud Miller:  "Of all the saddest words of tongue or pen there are none more sad than these, 'what might have been' "

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