CoastalWx Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Mid month seems better on guidance. Let’s Morch. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Mid month seems better on guidance. Let’s Morch. WTTTE.. They screamed cold and blocking 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Feels like a cool summer morning out there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 15 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Feels like a cool summer morning out there. MOIST, dewy air for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Mid month seems better on guidance. Let’s Morch. The PAC ain’t changing…. +WPO/+EPO FTW. So much for that plunge into an arctic tundra with mountains of snow mid-late March some were hyping on twitter…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: WTTTE.. They screamed cold and blocking Well, it doesn’t look like 70s, but I don’t see it below normal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Well, it doesn’t look like 70s, but I don’t see it below normal. 45-55 in March is nice, don’t need 70’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well, it doesn’t look like 70s, but I don’t see it below normal. 2012 INCOMING!!!?!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 48/48 -RA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well, it doesn’t look like 70s, but I don’t see it below normal. Nah. Big EC ridge as folks scramble shoving units into windows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Trolling kevin aside. If you’re going to pull 70s in a March this would be one to do it. It doesn’t take much for a couple of DSD days if we’re already past mud season into CNE. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Trolling kevin aside. If you’re going to pull 70s in a March this would be one to do it. It doesn’t take much for a couple of DSD days if we’re already past mud season into CNE. I'm ready to move on. Sledding season is done with no hope of recovery and while that hurts, it means I can get out on the road bike and do some cycling earlier than usual and at least start making plans for the boating season. I think we're due for a hot/dry summer and while I don't prefer those, after last Summer's debacle, I'll gladly take it. Lawn might not like it though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nah. Big EC ridge as folks scramble shoving units into windows. AC on at gym this morning. Install season is here. 1 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 18 minutes ago, dendrite said: Trolling kevin aside. If you’re going to pull 70s in a March this would be one to do it. It doesn’t take much for a couple of DSD days if we’re already past mud season into CNE. All the ACATT posts will be fun to bump . Just sittin back now.. smilin’ , waitin’ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 21 minutes ago, dendrite said: Trolling kevin aside. If you’re going to pull 70s in a March this would be one to do it. It doesn’t take much for a couple of DSD days if we’re already past mud season into CNE. Curious from a meteorological standpoint - how does mud reason related to downsloping? 17 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: I'm ready to move on. Sledding season is done with no hope of recovery and while that hurts, it means I can get out on the road bike and do some cycling earlier than usual and at least start making plans for the boating season. I think we're due for a hot/dry summer and while I don't prefer those, after last Summer's debacle, I'll gladly take it. Lawn might not like it though. They've already done a cursory street sweep on the major cycling routes down here because people have been out like crazy the past 2 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: All the ACATT posts will be fun to bump . Just sittin back now.. smilin’ , waitin’ Greta looking so happy this morning secretly enjoying these dews. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 The KBM does this every year, rushing the heat and dews. Adjust the bias accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 14 minutes ago, tunafish said: Curious from a meteorological standpoint - how does mud reason related to downsloping? They don’t. But the point is everyone east of the Rockies is ahead of schedule with soil conditions and/or green up. So there won’t be much modification to our warm airmasses and any DSD day will be ripe for post-mud season type diurnal swings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 46 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: I'm ready to move on. Sledding season is done with no hope of recovery and while that hurts, it means I can get out on the road bike and do some cycling earlier than usual and at least start making plans for the boating season. I think we're due for a hot/dry summer and while I don't prefer those, after last Summer's debacle, I'll gladly take it. Lawn might not like it though. There's always that mental battle for me between lawn health, and a desire for hot/dry summers. I had about an acre spray-seeded two years ago that was previously a horse playground. So that grass is still getting established. June sucked last year having to water it, but I didn't need to do anything from July through September. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: WTTTE.. They screamed cold and blocking Yea, sell the shit out of winter this month. We sping 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, sell the shit out of winter this month. We sping No winter but cutoff rainy season is upon us. Sustained heat and dry is far away. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, sell the shit out of winter this month. We sping Still waiting on a prolonged stretch of dry weather the emerge; doesn’t it happens this Spring or summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 17 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: He's right about the telecon suggestion, though. But you're both right - There's competing aspects, but both being real - which one wins? Cool appeals get adulterated since ... 2012. Maybe background biases associated with CC have something to do with it whether JD approves or not ... But whatever the cause, whenever uncertainty turns into certainty, the conversion always manifest as a warmer redraw compared to whatever the models had originally seen. I can't tell you how many times I've seen a 850 mb continental plume of neg anomalies get rotisserie chicken lamped somehow along the way. Maybe it's just a modeling physics problem - but I doubt it. The fact that we verify above whatever the climate of the day is, like 80% of the time is damning... I dunno - letting y'all squabble over it while I grin. Be that as it may, a -NAO is too climate friendly to ignore. This 12z run... jesus. Both the Euro and GFS oper are materializing the -NAO over the eastward limb of the domain, which allows for left turning troughs... That smacks as the -PNA having a transitive ( non-linear ) say in how the hemisphere behaves at mid month - here we go again. My honest opinion with no sarcasm intended is that the past several years would have sucked 100 years ago, but the nights have been significatnly warmer than they would have been and the very warmest days are even warmer. I am sure there have also been some marginal events that have been more tedious than they would have a century ago, but I honestly don't believe this would have been a fruitful period for SNE snow enthusiasts at any point in our history. West Pacific forcing has always sucked for this area in that regard since the dawn of time and it always will...there have been prolonged stretchs like this spanning several years in the past....but sure, this "warmest season ever" every other year is definitely CC aided, and mostly while we sleep. It can be argued that the west PAC warm pool that is predisposing us to said Maritime forcing is at least partially attributable to CC and it probably is to a degree, but I have a hard time accepting the fact that mother nature will not find a means to have that phenomenon self-destuct at some point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 17 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: So much worry of - NAO . Never seen anything like it. Who cares ? It doesn’t mean cold and wet.. if it even comes to fruition. Case in point.. how’d that modeled cold and snowy Feb 10 - Morch 10 period work out ? Yea, the blocking has showed up as advertised this year, though admittedly this last stretch was more muted than originally expected. But the issue plaguing this season is that the cold has loaded on the other side of the globe...and whenever it did make it over here, its residence was brief because there was always a Pacific jet extension ready to flex. These are the issues I need to get a better grasp of. I feel like the jet extensions maybe tied to the warm pool off of Japan, but I am at a loss for what determines which side of the globe that the cold loads...perhaps its related to the jet extension issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My honest opinion with no sarcasm intended is that the past several years would have sucked 100 years ago, but the nights have been significatnly warmer than they would have been and the very warmest days are even warmer. I am sure there have also been some marginal events that have been more tedious than they ould have a century ago, but I honestly don't believe this would have been fruitful period for SNE snow enthusiasts at any point in our history. West Pacific forcing has always sucked for this area in that regard since the dawn of time and it always will...there have been prolonged stretchs like this spanning several years in the past....but sure, this "warmest season ever" every other year is definitely CC aided, and mostly while we sleep. Still funny Anyway, I don't believe the idiosyncratics of the increasingly more difficult to explain pattern behaviors existed 100 years ago. That's a smoking gun - everything precipitates ( no pun intended ) out of the pattern noise of respective eras. I don't believe the circulation modes of today would have been observable 100 years ago. Different inputs respective of eras makes the comparison ...not as extreme as 'apple to oranges' ... Call it apples to pears. I mean they are not hugely divergent in a comparison, but the circulation being effected is already papered and peer-reviewed. The business with the HC ... to the mean winter PV of the AO domain ... all these fields are verified as changed(ing). 100 years ago is in an extinction event - tongue in cheek intended... It's a question that cannot ultimately be resolved here, though ... Because we do not have access to super computers, nor the advanced reanalysis techniques. To mention, the millions of initial condition data points ... I mean there's a dizzying array of tech and touches combined in preprocessing alone just to initialize any kind of imagined environmental computation - such that could predict 100 years ago vs today with very much confidence. All that would be needed ... Where is the wherewithal, it is happening. There's attribution papers being published. There is unfortunately, also "attribution" being floated by dubious credibility. And the Industrial Media Complex? the minute news and information went up for sale some 50 years ago ... humanity was probably doomed - but that's a wild digression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Still funny Anyway, I don't believe the idiosyncratics of the increasingly more difficult to explain pattern behaviors existed 100 years ago. That's a smoking gun - everything precipitates ( no pun intended ) out of the pattern noise of respective eras. I don't believe the circulation modes of today would have been observable 100 years ago. Different inputs respective of eras makes the comparison ...not as extreme as 'apple to oranges' ... Call it apples to pears. It's a question that cannot ultimately be resolved here, though ... Because we do not have access to super computers, nor the advanced reanalysis techniques. To mention, the millions of initial condition data points ... I mean there's a dizzying array of tech and touches combined in preprocessing alone just to initialize any kind of imagined environmental computation - such that could predict 100 years ago vs today with very much confidence. All that would be needed ... Where is the wherewithal, it is happening. There's attribution papers being published. There is unfortunately, also "attribution" being floated by dubious credibility. And the Industrial Media Complex? the minute news and information went up for sale some 50 years ago ... humanity was probably doomed - but that's a wild digression. That is correct to a degree, but in a general sense.....Maritime forcing 100 years ago would have sucked. That is all I mean. Perhaps that forcing regime wouldn't have been so prevalent then due to a less pronounced warm pool, but if it were our winters would suck. One thing if for certain....Maritime forcing existed then..basically all I am saying. But as far as precisely how the hemisphere would have evolved....right; no way of knowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 @CoastalWx@ORH_wxmanWhich site do you use for past H5 charts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Well, it doesn’t look like 70s, but I don’t see it below normal. We just saw the scaffolding of the pattern for next week change over the last 30 yours of modeling cycles toward what your suggesting. yeah - What was once a strong continental front slated to sweep away the mildness early next week, is now looking ( weirdly so...) like a summer front bumping into a WAR resistance and washing out... I mean it cools off, but there's suggestion now that heights and ridging may attempt to roll right back in toward the end of the week. Relatively new... Meanwhile, the EPS/GEPS/GEFs have all brought back the -NAO look, but when they brought it back, it appears to be 2 days later. Mm ...wondering if there's going to be some can kicking here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: We just saw the scaffolding of the pattern for next week change over the last 30 yours of modeling cycles toward what your suggesting. yeah - What was once a strong continental front slated to sweep away the mildness early next week, is now looking ( weirdly so...) like a summer front bumping into a WAR resistance and washing out... I mean it cools off, but there's suggestion now that heights and ridging may attempt to roll right back in toward the end of the week. Relatively new... Meanwhile, the EPS/GEPS/GEFs have all brought back the -NAO look, but when they brought it back, it appears to be 2 days later. Mm ...wondering if there's going to be some can kicking here. Hopefully they kick that can to December- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 1 hour ago, Lava Rock said: I'm ready to move on. Sledding season is done with no hope of recovery and while that hurts, it means I can get out on the road bike and do some cycling earlier than usual and at least start making plans for the boating season. I think we're due for a hot/dry summer and while I don't prefer those, after last Summer's debacle, I'll gladly take it. Lawn might not like it though. dude, your lawn doesn't like any kind of weather. Your lawn doesn't even like you! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now