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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

63 again. What a nice week, maybe 65-70 tomorrow and Friday? Nice start to Morch! 

dern it...  I normally would have checked the preceding MOS guidance numbers because this kind of excruciating nerdiness of spring temperature monitoring excites me.

ha ...  This just seems like a MOS bust incarnate regime we're in today and tomorrow.

59 here ...  zero cloud in any direction with infinite visibility.  no discernable wind.  About a 10 on the nape scale.   

Needs to clear 62 to enter top 10 day contention - personal requirement for that distinction.  But being near 60 in these conditions under near Equinox sun is definitely in the top 20.  We may yet get a 64 even here...

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

dern it...  I normally would have checked the preceding MOS guidance numbers because this kind of excruciating nerdiness of spring temperature monitoring excites me.

ha ...  This just seems like a MOS bust incarnate regime we're in today and tomorrow.

59 here ...  zero cloud in any direction with infinite visibility.  no discernable wind.  About a 10 on the nape scale.   

Needs to clear 62 to enter top 10 day contention - personal requirement for that distinction.  But being near 60 in these conditions under near Equinox sun is definitely in the top 20.  We may yet get a 64 even here...

Definite positive bust last two days in the MOS department 

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12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

62 again today so far might get to 65 before the winds shift. What a nice week, maybe 65-70 tomorrow and Friday? Nice start to Morch! 

66 here after a 62 yesterday....great couple of days. Problem is the fruit trees, peaches especially are swelling. This is actually ahead of last year and we lost all of our peaches and apples due to the late freeze. 

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42 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

not to be a dick ( seriously...) but no, 2012 was never in the cards. I like the way Brian mused about 2012 the other day, " ...was a unicorn"  - that was some sort of extended event onto itself.  It was like 73 for 10 days or something whack.   so no-

I will say however that we are vulnerable to synoptic 'heat spikes' - like the 12z GFS actually depicts in the goo-goo ga-ga range ...  Does it verify?  mm, likely no - not from this range can 'likely' be objectively placed on any aspect.  That said, the last 10 or 12 year's worth of springs have featured these too frequently to ignore.  582 non-hydrostatic heights on a WSW deep layer flow, after the Equinox no less ...whatever the 2-meter is at this range it's going to be quite a bit warmer - if this below actually sets up

 

gfs_z500a_us_55.png

I actually said it weeks ago when the 2012 talk was going around(in late feb), that it was a unicorn. But it’s all good.  And most of us knew it was never in the cards, but a few were pushing it.  It was fake news from the get go. 

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53 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It is nice…that just looks to good for the type of weather we’ve had the last couple of weeks though…find it hard to believe they have that type of snow currently?  Looks suspect to me. 

They got a lot Sunday. Plus it's at like 1600+ elevation 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ll never understand why some posters get so upset and hot and bothered over 2012 discussion. It’s been a junior version of that. Theres no reason to keep posting about how you disagree. It’s ok . Enjoy the mild to at times warm month overall 

But it’s not a 2012 junior. But if you think so, that’s ok.  We just don’t agree. 

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm  I beg to differ.   People have a way of playing with it verbally ( it's a form of bargaining - ) by infusing all these 'reasonable skepticisms' that in reality are less likely to be valid - and or proving to be less valid all the time. 

It's a form of passive denial that's harder to prove but is a common tactic in humanity.  Which ...this may come as surprise but "some" people in here qualify as being a part of  lol

Horrible take

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ll never understand why some posters get so upset and hot and bothered over 2012 discussion. It’s been a junior version of that. Theres no reason to keep posting about how you disagree. It’s ok . Enjoy the mild to at times warm month overall 

Because 2012 was an extreme and like your yearly calls for 1938 the odds are extremely low. You know it but push it so much nobody takes you seriously even on your good takes.  Boy who cried wolf syndrome 

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15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ll never understand why some posters get so upset and hot and bothered over 2012 discussion. It’s been a junior version of that. Theres no reason to keep posting about how you disagree. It’s ok . Enjoy the mild to at times warm month overall 

The denial is wild, you'd think they would admit to busting and move on but...nope

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6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

what were March 2012 temp departures?

Atleast locally to me (MHT) we actually started March 2012 chilly and had a snow event leading into the 1st. It was the middle of the month that went wild into the 70/80s. This one has been more consistently mild with less high end stuff. Pretty sure MHT was around +8.5 in 2012, and around +8 mtd this year. We'll see how the back half ends up but with climo warming we will definitely need some 70s to keep pace.

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3 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Atleast locally to me (MHT) we actually started March 2012 chilly and had a snow event leading into the 1st. It was the middle of the month that went wild into the 70/80s. This one has been more consistently mild with less high end stuff. Pretty sure MHT was around +8.5 in 2012, and around +8 mtd this year. We'll see how the back half ends up but with climo warming we will definitely need some 70s to keep pace.

Well the 2nd half will decide it.   The "cold" is already starting to get muted so will come down to how warm the warm period end up like you state...

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Sure 80s and 90s are common in March. Totally overrated 

Some of These folks can’t remember shit. 70’s and 80’s were commonplace in March of 12. And like you said even some 90’s.   This ain’t even close at all. 

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