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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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I saw a tweet that there's some kind of a heat burst going on in Africa ... 

Obviously the "I saw,"  and subsequently "a tweet" in the same sentence immediately torpedoes its own value - however ... I did read an article about this from other source two weeks ago.  I'm wondering if it's matured into something more pervasive and extreme.   But places apparently across multiple countries, all at once, broke all time temperature records.

If true ...that's interesting to the non-numb

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43 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I think there is one more shot of snow. All the tellies look good right now. The lag should bring us to next week. 

Of course your area will be more favored than mine but we should see colder conditions. 

*Interior Northern New England*
 

Fixed it for you

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39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm  I beg to differ.   People have a way of playing with it verbally ( it's a form of bargaining - ) by infusing all these 'reasonable skepticisms' that in reality are less likely to be valid - and or proving to be less valid all the time. 

It's a form of passive denial that's harder to prove but is a common tactic in humanity.  Which ...this may come as surprise but "some" people in here qualify as being a part of  lol

Yup 

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This is out there in time, but the models have some interesting solutions after the 23rd or so. If there were to be anything interesting, it's probably a late month thing from like 23-28th or so. 

 

After that we warm up a bit.

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4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

My wife has a fully loaded F 150. Could actually use it as a generator lol.

Yup…same with me(2022 F150 Platinum Powerboost) with 7200 watts of power built in, that’s big time power.  I have a 220 generator outlet that obviously takes a generator cord.  You can literally power your home if you wanted to if your power went out.  Just put the truck into generator mode, and she turns off and on(gas motor) as needed to keep the system charged. Serious feature that’s no joke. It’s a true  rolling generator.  Love mine. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

This is far fetched, but the models have some interesting solutions after the 23rd or so. If there were to be anything interesting, it's probably a late month thing from like 23-28th or so. 

 

After that we warm up a bit.

Are you saying it’s not a zero chance?  

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7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s gotta be older…

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

it isn't. it's from today. Lots of FB photos from various clubs/groups. 

To be fair, sometimes it's hard to know what is recent, and what may be from a while back.

This photo was taken this morning in the Adirondacks.

 

sled.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

To be fair, sometimes it's hard to know what is recent, and what may be from a while back.

This photo was taken this morning in the Adirondacks.

 

sled.jpg

Lmfao….good one.  But I’m thinking that one from NH is older. Might have been posted today, but that looks like fabulous conditions…and that just doesn’t add up.  Conditions like that wouldn’t be around like that now imo…

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s amazing then…most everybody north of them is done. 

Pittston Farms was doing some grooming this week, but it's limited to their trails. I've never gotten a NH trail pass, but might consider it next year to mix it up. That area up by Pittsburgh Swift Diamond is nice.

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lmfao….good one.  But I’m thinking that one from NH is older. Might have been posted today, but that looks like fabulous conditions…and that just doesn’t add up. 

People have been known to lie and post bogus pics, but this is just one post of several today. They got 8-12" last wknd and still had some base, so I trust the conditions are as of today

image.thumb.png.dd9c32617e188181cfe61ff55e3990d1.png

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1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

Pittston Farms was doing some grooming this week, but it's limited to their trails. I've never gotten a NH trail pass, but might consider it next year to mix it up. That area up by Pittsburgh Swift Diamond is nice.

It is nice…that just looks to good for the type of weather we’ve had the last couple of weeks though…find it hard to believe they have that type of snow currently?  Looks suspect to me. 

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Just now, Lava Rock said:

People have been known to lie and post bogus pics, but this is just one post of several today. They got 8-12" last wknd and still had some base, so I trust the conditions are as of today

image.thumb.png.dd9c32617e188181cfe61ff55e3990d1.png

Ok…I guess so then. Looks fabulous. 

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1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

People have been known to lie and post bogus pics, but this is just one post of several today. They got 8-12" last wknd and still had some base, so I trust the conditions are as of today

image.thumb.png.dd9c32617e188181cfe61ff55e3990d1.png

 

Ha, I'm friends with that guy Adam.

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is out there in time, but the models have some interesting solutions after the 23rd or so. If there were to be anything interesting, it's probably a late month thing from like 23-28th or so. 

 

After that we warm up a bit.

Ya, euro AI going wild with that storm, and some nasty cold on the backside.

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17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So no 2012 Junior…???  

not to be a dick ( seriously...) but no, 2012 was never in the cards. I like the way Brian mused about 2012 the other day, " ...was a unicorn"  - that was some sort of extended event onto itself.  It was like 73 for 10 days or something whack.   so no-

I will say however that we are vulnerable to synoptic 'heat spikes' - like the 12z GFS actually depicts in the goo-goo ga-ga range ...  Does it verify?  mm, likely no - not from this range can 'likely' be objectively placed on any aspect.  That said, the last 10 or 12 year's worth of springs have featured these too frequently to ignore.  582 non-hydrostatic heights on a WSW deep layer flow, after the Equinox no less ...whatever the 2-meter is at this range it's going to be quite a bit warmer - if this below actually sets up

 

gfs_z500a_us_55.png

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Next week had potential, but the trough is a bit too much + tilted. 

I mentioned this earlier.  the Euro AI reminds me of the Euro operational from 2005 I used to have access to when I worked at WSI.    The model went well beyond 240 hours ... all the way to 360 I believe. 

Anyway, it seemed to bias toward massive bombs at 300+ hrs ... I'm wondering if all we're seeing is just the Euro " extended" - so to speak...

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