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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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33 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Pretty wild this sub forum continues the climate change battle lol. Good luck with the below normal spring forecasts

Dumb.zero to do with climate change. No one arguing CC. Who called for a BN spring March 21 to May 21? Link. Wrong subforum.

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On this side of an imminent -EPO burst ... those model products are likely to bias cold at this time of year. 

I've come to observe that is true ... all year, but particularly so during seasonal forcing of spring/sun "rug pulling" on cold patterns is a real modeling error aspect that shouldn't be neglected inclusion in anyone's usage of extended model application. To wit, all those graphical products are interpolatively based upon modeled input parameters, ...such that if the latter are cold bias (destined correct warm), the rest of this statement becomes academic.

In other words, be careful with the scale and degree of cold. 

In the modeled dailies ... already the first of the cold trough incursions into the mid latitude continent scheduled to pass through the 18th thru the 21st, has morphed both shallower at mid and upper level non-hydrostatic hgts, but also tending to shear into a positive slope orientation ... not extending as deeply in latitude as it was when first detected some 10 days ago ( some may recall, model runs depicting 20th major EC winter storm ..etc). 

That was suggested by some posters :whistle: back then as a possible correction.  Not that anyone argued the point ... but it's worth it to mention because I'm not sure I see why the next trough out there around the 23rd-25th doesn't also attenuate some for the total cold.  Granted the 20th hasn't verified yet ... but the process of attenuation is both historically supported, and apparently taking place.

I'd also caution that the local hemisphere may also surge in temperature with a cold pattern extinction around the tail-end of the month/first week of April - as an impending correction.  All polarward index domain spaces neutralizing and as many recent years have demonstrated at global scales ( regardless of season, really -), given lesser reasons to wash out cold and warm mid latitudes, there's usually a disproportionately stronger result compared to distant guidance panache. 

Nonetheless, between this weekend and next weekend, there'll still be a dicey time for some wintry results between the NP-GL-N OV-NE latitudes.

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I wonder if there's an AI version of the entire Euro ensemble suite, or is this just a gimmick operational version?

By the way, I haven't seen much improvement by the AI over the standard operational version for the time period that seems to drive people particularly batty, D7 thru 11.  That's just anecdotal - I'm sure there must be both a verification and comparative program, far more qualitative and quantitative than that but who knows. 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder if there's an AI version of the entire Euro ensemble suite, or is this just a gimmick operational version?

By the way, I haven't seen much improvement by the AI over the standard operational version for the time period that seems to drive people particularly batty, D7 thru 11.  That's just anecdotal - I'm sure there must be both a verification and comparative program, far more qualitative and quantitative than that but who knows. 

Yes there is

Screenshot_20240313_104956_Chrome.jpg

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5 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Where do you have the undercoat done?  ...At your mechanic?  What do they charge, and type of vehicle?

 

I go to Rust Check, a local place here in Portland. Cost is ~$220. They pop the taillights and spray inside the panels and of course the entire underside.

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15 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Not for the person who lives in that house, they must have had to tunnel out.

Ya wonder what the elevation of that property in the back ground, is...

Like, if it's > 7K feet... what does one expect?  I'm not sure of any real "awe" factor in placing constructed civility beyond recreation up that high, particularly in that geography and climate consideration.  It's like building a house at the bottom of the ocean and then gawking photos about the flood.

People that defend the gawk ability as justified, try to argue that 'even for them that is x-y-z ...' and I don't buy it.  That part of the continent has been sitting their prone to the Pacific ocean and the global westerlies bombardment for the last 50 million years of Plate Tectonics ... surviving both ice and fire epochs.  It's why either extreme of water and drought, and the types of events that correlate with either ...strike me as too local to 'white man's ' conquest of the north American continent - too brief in geological history and there are probably more likely to be certain place where descending society should just not have built. 

 

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24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You March 12 enthusiasts better hope AI is OTL.

I think there is one more shot of snow. All the tellies look good right now. The lag should bring us to next week. 

Of course your area will be more favored than mine but we should see colder conditions. 

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Pretty wild this sub forum continues the climate change battle lol. Good luck with the below normal spring forecasts

Except that isn't the "battle".  The battle is between someone calling for a 2012 redux (temps in the 80's) and some saying probably not, closer to 50 and cloudy/rainy.

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I think there is one more shot of snow. All the tellies look good right now. The lag should bring us to next week. 

Of course your area will be more favored than mine but we should see colder conditions. 

Wagons north NNE

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17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yes there is

Screenshot_20240313_104956_Chrome.jpg

That's what I was hoping to see ...  Wait, that doesn't say ECMWF "ensemble" AI ... it says "ECMWF AI" ?

Yeah, this weekend through next weekend is dicy for wintry events from the NP-GL-NE as this -EPO and attending +PNA couplet play out.  

The AI version of the operational is already guilty of going particularly nutty in that range - now apparently a flatter more tamed cold passage around the 20th.   So we'll see.

When I worked at WSI back in 2005 ... I had access to the Euro operational run - which does go out to 360 hours ( or did so back then).  I remember the model tended to wind up everything beyond 240 hours.  When I saw this AI stuff for the first time ... it was bringing back memories - made me wonder if we're just seeing what the Euro ( non AI) always tends to do way out in time, anyway.  Just speculation though...

Anyway, so long as the -3EPO and +1PNA canvas is there, ..we can't negate the possibility of a wintry event altogether.   I just personally don't lean that way because of a slew of objective facets.

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1 minute ago, mreaves said:

Except that isn't the "battle".  The battle is between someone calling for a 2012 redux (temps in the 80's) and some saying probably not, closer to 50 and cloudy/rainy.

How they twist things...

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18 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Except that isn't the "battle".  The battle is between someone calling for a 2012 redux (temps in the 80's) and some saying probably not, closer to 50 and cloudy/rainy.

Mmm  I beg to differ.   People have a way of playing with it verbally ( it's a form of bargaining - ) by infusing all these 'reasonable skepticisms' that in reality are less likely to be valid - and or proving to be less valid all the time. 

It's a form of passive denial that's harder to prove but is a common tactic in humanity.  Which ...this may come as surprise but "some" people in here qualify as being a part of  lol

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm  I beg to differ.   People have a way of playing with it verbally ( it's a form of bargaining - ) by infusing all these 'reasonable skepticisms' that in reality are less likely to be valid - and or proving to be less valid all the time. 

It's a form of passive denial that's harder to prove but is a common tactic in humanity.  Which ...this may come as surprise but "some" people in here qualify as being a part of  lol

I understand what you're saying and think in many instances that would be the correct assessment.  In this case though I take @RUNNAWAYICEBERG's posts as straight up and don't think of him as infusing "reasonable skepticisms".  I take as simply saying it doesn't seem like sunny and 80° is in the cards anytime soon.  

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12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm  I beg to differ.   People have a way of playing with it verbally ( it's a form of bargaining - ) by infusing all these 'reasonable skepticisms' that in reality are less likely to be valid - and or proving to be less valid all the time. 

It's a form of passive denial that's harder to prove but is a common tactic in humanity.  Which ...this may come as surprise but "some" people in here qualify as being a part of  lol

Luke doesn't deny CC....he just doesn't think its going to be 70.

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3 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I understand what you're saying and think in many instances that would be the correct assessment.  In this case though I take @RUNNAWAYICEBERG's posts as straight up and don't think of him as infusing "reasonable skepticisms".  I take as simply saying it doesn't seem like sunny and 80° is in the cards anytime soon.  

OH sure ... I mean, I wasn't really speaking to his input.  I was just budding in and rudely thumping an opinion.  haha

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