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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It did last spring too and we know how nice last spring ended up bring. Blocks in spring don’t mean nasty weather like some folks on here think lol

Meh.  1st half of April was indeed nice.  2nd half had one sunny day, 9 cloudy ones, and segued into a downpour that caused the 4th greatest peak flow on the Sandy River (relegated to 5th in Dec).  May had a mid-month dry spell but the month was way AN for RA, then June 1-18 had only a single day w/o measurable RA.

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12 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

No thank you, I've moved on. I'm enjoying watching  how fast the snow is melting. No use dragging this shit show out any longer. Stick a fork in it and we are on to Sping

The problem up here is that it just extends the useless time of year from 6 weeks to 8 or 10.  Its not like I can golf or hike or swim.  It's just useless mud.  If I could now get out and do warm season activities, I would be right there with you but we both know that's not happening until late April at the earliest.

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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

The problem up here is that it just extends the useless time of year from 6 weeks to 8 or 10.  Its not like I can golf or hike or swim.  It's just useless mud.  If I could now get out and do warm season activities, I would be right there with you but we both know that's not happening until late April at the earliest.

The quicker we can get the snow melted, the quicker we can start and get through mud season.

In 2020 leaf out here was right around June 1st. Stick season is ridiculously long up here. I'm not a fan. 

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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

The problem up here is that it just extends the useless time of year from 6 weeks to 8 or 10.  Its not like I can golf or hike or swim.  It's just useless mud.  If I could now get out and do warm season activities, I would be right there with you but we both know that's not happening until late April at the earliest.

Next up is fishing season on 04/01, I will be getting out to do that this year in honor of my dad, I have some of his ashes that need to be spread onto a couple lakes that we would frequent over the years, It will be different fishing without him as we fished and hunted together for over 50yrs and i have some for hunting season too to spread.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Starts to get a little blocky in the NAO domain too.

Tried  to mention teleconnections indicating a cooler than normal Mid March and was basically told to shut up. Never forecasted it just mentioned it. But with all this CC talk anything outside the talking points is taboo. 

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Tried  to mention teleconnections indicating a cooler than normal Mid March and was basically told to shut up. Never forecasted it just mentioned it. But with all this CC talk anything outside the talking points is taboo. 

I'm not sold on BN for sure. Probably AN thanks to warmer nights. 

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They sure are lol

Just to refresh your memory, when blocking showed up last year in late April the last ten days and first week of May were BN when blocking resumed Mid May it resulted in a BN MAY at BDL . Just so your memory is clear. 

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14 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

The quicker we can get the snow melted, the quicker we can start and get through mud season.

In 2020 leaf out here was right around June 1st. Stick season is ridiculously long up here. I'm not a fan. 

And golf courses, hiking trails etc. still won't be open until their usual dates.

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19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm not sold on BN for sure. Probably AN thanks to warmer nights. 

He's right about the telecon suggestion, though.

But you're both right -

There's competing aspects, but both being real - which one wins?

Cool appeals get adulterated since ... 2012. Maybe background biases associated with CC have something to do with it whether JD approves or not ... But whatever the cause, whenever uncertainty turns into certainty, the conversion always manifest as a warmer redraw compared to whatever the models had originally seen.  I can't tell you how many times I've seen a 850 mb continental plume of neg anomalies get rotisserie chicken lamped somehow along the way.  Maybe it's just a modeling physics problem - but I doubt it.  The fact that we verify above whatever the climate of the day is, like 80% of the time is damning... I dunno - letting y'all squabble over it while I grin.

Be that as it may, a -NAO is too climate friendly to ignore. 

This 12z run... jesus.  Both the Euro and GFS oper are materializing the -NAO over the eastward limb of the domain, which allows for left turning troughs... That smacks as the -PNA having a transitive ( non-linear ) say in how the hemisphere behaves at mid month - here we go again.

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20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So much worry of - NAO . Never seen anything like it. Who cares ? It doesn’t mean cold and wet.. if it even comes to fruition. Case in point.. how’d that modeled cold  and snowy Feb 10 - Morch 10 period work out ?

We care because we fully expect March 2012 to walk in the door as you promised.  I mean 40s and 50s with clouds in March is fugly

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Next up is fishing season on 04/01, I will be getting out to do that this year in honor of my dad, I have some of his ashes that need to be spread onto a couple lakes that we would frequent over the years, It will be different fishing without him as we fished and hunted together for over 50yrs and i have some for hunting season too to spread.

I didn't know you lost him.  There is nothing like doing stuff just you and your Dad.  As men, often our most important relationship.

I'm lucky mine is still quite alive and kicking.  We go to Vegas once a year for 3 nights and just hang out, eat steak and play blackjack.  What a blast!

That is a nice way to honor him, and I hope it brings you peace.  

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39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So much worry of - NAO . Never seen anything like it. Who cares ? It doesn’t mean cold and wet.. if it even comes to fruition. Case in point.. how’d that modeled cold  and snowy Feb 10 - Morch 10 period work out ?

I dont know about you…but that was the best stretch of the winter season here up until yesterday lol.  We had a 12+ inch snowstorm, and thick solid snow cover for more than 10 days…so it worked out pretty good considering this horrible winter.  Bro, your memory is shot. 

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So much worry of - NAO . Never seen anything like it. Who cares ? It doesn’t mean cold and wet.. if it even comes to fruition. Case in point.. how’d that modeled cold  and snowy Feb 10 - Morch 10 period work out ?

Keep us posted on your install progress this weekend. 

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4 hours ago, dryslot said:

Next up is fishing season on 04/01, I will be getting out to do that this year in honor of my dad, I have some of his ashes that need to be spread onto a couple lakes that we would frequent over the years, It will be different fishing without him as we fished and hunted together for over 50yrs and i have some for hunting season too to spread.

I have good memories of hunting and fishing with my dad, he's been gone 11 years, but I still have those memories and they make me smile when I think of those good times. The memories never leave. Sorry for your loss.

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