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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lol. It’s amazing how quickly it runs through hr 384.

Seriously though that is one of the big use cases the NWS is excited about anyway. The ability to run large ensembles quickly and frequently.

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What do you think for winds tomorrow.  Heading there tonight

No upper mountain lifts on tramside…nw over 30 usually takes out the Bonnie too…maybe jet? Could also take the metro and hike up lower river quai to hit some lower mountain glades off goat. Tuesday will be the day.


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41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Couple of those days will hit or over 70. Full sun, downslope. Torch 

To be 20 deg over climo at 4 days ...   Considering that's weighted toward climatology heavier out in time, that's possibly saying something.

however - I'm still not very trusting of that outlook with a front being situated near by at this time of year.  So we'll see -

 

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Meh, this recent system had fairly robust support on guidance 10-11 days ago and people were groaning and grumbling about posts alluding to the possibility of a storm then. 10 days later, I ended up with my biggest snowfall since Jan 10th and more snow than the entirety of Feb combined. Much of NNE cashed (and will continue to cash) in as well.

Not going to deny that this winter has been anything but a regionwide ratter, but I guess I'm not sure what evidence there is to dismiss all modeling. Are model performance metrics currently indicating poorer than normal performance this winter?

I'm genuinely asking, as I have no idea. 

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

More long range fantasy that never materialized.  Story of this ratter winter

Let’s see, let me check the calendar…yup, it’s still March 10. therefore, i question your verification abilities.

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Just 15 short days away....

Yawn.

I am NOT saying that March 18 and beyond will be cold and snowy. I AM saying that it is possible (albeit unlikely).

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3 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Meh, this recent system had fairly robust support on guidance 10-11 days ago and people were groaning and grumbling about posts alluding to the possibility of a storm then. 10 days later, I ended up with my biggest snowfall since Jan 10th and more snow than the entirety of Feb combined. Much of NNE cashed (and will continue to cash) in as well.

Not going to deny that this winter has been anything but a regionwide ratter, but I guess I'm not sure what evidence there is to dismiss all modeling. Are model performance metrics currently indicating poorer than normal performance this winter?

I'm genuinely asking, as I have no idea. 

You got like 5 inches in NH on 3/9 after a 10 day weenie fest and that’s a big storm?  Just because it’s bigger than other systems this season doesn’t mean it didn’t under perform.

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9 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Meh, this recent system had fairly robust support on guidance 10-11 days ago and people were groaning and grumbling about posts alluding to the possibility of a storm then. 10 days later, I ended up with my biggest snowfall since Jan 10th and more snow than the entirety of Feb combined. Much of NNE cashed (and will continue to cash) in as well.

Not going to deny that this winter has been anything but a regionwide ratter, but I guess I'm not sure what evidence there is to dismiss all modeling. Are model performance metrics currently indicating poorer than normal performance this winter?

I'm genuinely asking, as I have no idea. 

I never doubted some snow north of the NH border...that was expected. However, it was rain down here, as anticipated near the end of February. 

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