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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

8-14 days? Lol. That’s the period some in here are calling for cold and snow 

Coldest spring ever.

"Euro 12z  AI going wild March 18-23 with major eastern storm and one of the coldest opening to spring outbreaks into the east on record."

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And just like that next week goes in the shitter

"Good model agreement on dry weather Mon and Tue, but blustery and
chilly NW flow across the region. Not as windy or cold Tue vs Mon.
Wed could be the pick of the week with ridge advecting across the
area, with highs 55-60 and light winds. Obviously cooler along/near
the coast given SSTs in the 40s. Maybe unsettled Thu/Fri with risk
for showers, but mild."
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52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

8-14 days? Lol. That’s the period some in here are calling for cold and snow 

These maps have always been pretty conservative ( IMO ). So what it's showing for us is actually somewhat encouraging for the possible colder weather coming in. Time will tell

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12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Interesting down here in Florida local’s are saying this is mid April wx. I suspect we’re going to roast July/August.

Definitely with the upcoming LA Nina.

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3 hours ago, kdxken said:

Coldest spring ever.

"Euro 12z  AI going wild March 18-23 with major eastern storm and one of the coldest opening to spring outbreaks into the east on record."

Is AI going to make forecasts better or worse?

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1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

that looks like something you'd see April 15th

That’s generally what it feels like, mid-April.  Snowpack is like it is a couple weeks before closing… not 5 weeks.

All we need is some good frozen QPF and normal temperatures and things will last.  But can’t keep running back +10 departures.

We are +14.1 through the first week of the month.  It’s just wild departures continuing since the end of November.

IMG_8547.thumb.jpeg.95c2788ef94292cf1a4e498461fec56f.jpeg

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Just now, qg_omega said:

Looks like 8 to 12 inches or more for the mountains Saturday night into Sunday

Southeast Adirondacks getting the upslope cooling from forced parcel ascent in the marginal & lowest few thousand vertical feet.  Same with eastern VT hills and Spine during the SE flow phase.

It’s like the tide coming in on SE flow, then the tide going out on NW flow. Some zones do better on each specific flow/tide, others can hit on both.  Thats the forecasting challenge.

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24 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Southeast Adirondacks getting the upslope cooling from forced parcel ascent in the marginal & lowest few thousand vertical feet.  Same with eastern VT hills and Spine during the SE flow phase.

It’s like the tide coming in on SE flow, then the tide going out on NW flow. Some zones do better on each specific flow/tide, others can hit on both.  Thats the forecasting challenge.

Agreed, Gore will do well on the front and greens will clean up on the back

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41 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That’s generally what it feels like, mid-April.  Snowpack is like it is a couple weeks before closing… not 5 weeks.

All we need is some good frozen QPF and normal temperatures and things will last.  But can’t keep running back +10 departures.

We are +14.1 through the first week of the month.  It’s just wild departures continuing since the end of November.

IMG_8547.thumb.jpeg.95c2788ef94292cf1a4e498461fec56f.jpeg

Gross but change is coming. 

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15 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Wow, that's impressive. The pos. depth change maps are usually (caveat, not always!) fairly conservative too. Still - way more applicable in this situation/evolution than the 10 to 1.

This is a 1,500-2,000ft event for big totals.

The QPF is there.  If this winter had even been +2 to +4 (instead of +8 to +10), it might have been an incredibly snowy winter up north.  There have been so many events that have been a couple degrees away from big numbers.

00z GFS if only we had a cold airmass and 10:1 ratios to the valley floors.  Disappointing winter.  This is what could have been.

  gfs-deterministic-neng-total_snow_10to1-0277200.thumb.png.377e3e3d4b787d7e784e2c7df4984254.png

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This is a 1,500-2,000ft event for big totals.

The QPF is there.  If this winter had even been +2 to +4 (instead of +8 to +10), it might have been an incredibly snowy winter up north.  There have been so many events that have been a couple degrees away from big numbers.

00z GFS if only we had a cold airmass and 10:1 ratios to the valley floors.  Disappointing winter.  This is what could have been.

  gfs-deterministic-neng-total_snow_10to1-0277200.thumb.png.377e3e3d4b787d7e784e2c7df4984254.png

Most of the snow will be occurring at night so that will help with accumulations. 
 

This is probably a more realistic map.

 

 

 

 

IMG_4774.jpeg

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58 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

Most of the snow will be occurring at night so that will help with accumulations. 
 

This is probably a more realistic map.

 

 

 

 

IMG_4774.jpeg

I have a hard time seeing RUT getting a foot. 

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Curious how it plays out where I live. The past elevation events- half I got accumulating snow, and half I got white rain. I really have no idea how this unfolds. All those maps being posted snow a jackpot right over my area, but do I have enough elevation to get accumulation? 

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