dendrite Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said: My coworker in Dallas was complaining about the mid 90s there today. That’s way too early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: Nice one Tip, I of course expected above normal to well above normal temps but it’s very hard to go with +8 to +12 DJFM with November being the coldest month relative to averages Well, in fairness, I would not have avered +8 either… I just think with climate change being an undeniable enhancement at this point effecting pattern circulation modes … how much shit are you guys going to eat before you start fucking admitting the taste - I mean “you guys” in the royal sense The truth shall set you free of course, we can still have a big winter But the return rate of that is lengthening … like a nightmare hallway 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: how much shit are you guys going to eat before you start fucking admitting the taste - With whom are you having this argument....the gremlin on the wing of your airplane? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: No one correctly forecasted the warmth especially the further north you go, just months and months of +8 to +12 I'm not sure how you could forecast something that extreme at a seasonal level. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 17 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: With whom are you having this argument....the gremlin on the wing of your airplane? You’re not too bright are ya Fucking wrote it in black-and-white you guys was meant in the royal sense 1 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It was also a shitty pattern though so I don’t think luck would have helped much here. A combo of stronger Nino and strong pac jet. That caused no cold to be found prior to any storms. Some narrow exceptions like where Ray is and in CT. We could have had a big storm or two with some luck IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Well, in fairness, I would not have avered +8 either… I just think with climate change being an undeniable enhancement at this point effecting pattern circulation modes … how much shit are you guys going to eat before you start fucking admitting the taste - I mean “you guys” in the royal sense The truth shall set you free of course, we can still have a big winter But the return rate of that is lengthening … like a nightmare hallway It's one thing to be have insight into CC, it's another entirely to correctly account for it in a seasonal forecast. The latter is my issue....not in denial about anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 My coworker in Dallas was complaining about the mid 90s there today. That’s way too early. Were they complaining in 1911 how early it was Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Wow, Tip dropping the "F-bomb" tonight! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's one thing to be have insight into CC, it's another entirely to correctly account for it in a seasonal forecast. The latter is my issue....not in denial about anything. Probably can’t do that at a scalar level no… But if you were to say it’s affecting winters? You’d be 100% correct. It’s clearly factorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 10 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Were they complaining in 1911 how early it was Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Probably more so without central air and AC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Going to close out met winter with 24". Anything could happen but I'm not expecting much improvement the rest of the season so looking at another under performer in the books. My daughter is in Costa Rica with school this week and looking at the pics from there I'm mentally ready to just go full on summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 When do the '80s start? We were promised. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 1 hour ago, kdxken said: When do the '80s start? We were promised. Just drink beers and close your eyes…and let your imagination run wild. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 14 hours ago, dryslot said: Not two and a row here but this will probably end up worse then 2015-16 and that was the worst year here in the last 15 yrs +. Four in a row of <65% of AVG (67"). This one (24") on pace for <50% of AVG. If we don't get any more significant measurable it'll end <40% of AVG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Today is a extreme diurnal range watch ... Low bottomed out at 26 here .... feel pretty good about a run at 62 which would exceeds 30 Looking upstream, zip appreciable cloud through which the region is now receiving season changing sun. MAV is 58-ish. It'll be a nerd's joy testing that - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 12 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said: With whom are you having this argument....the gremlin on the wing of your airplane? TGW(Tippy Gone Wild). Funny shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 13 hours ago, dendrite said: Thanks for the realization….obviously not even close to being way to early. The early 1900’s were hot in Dallas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 11 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said: Probably more so without central air and AC. Lots of Early Heat in the first couple decades of the 1900’s in the Big D. Very interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lots of Early Heat in the first couple decades of the 1900’s in the Big D. Very interesting. I could never live there. 92 is too hot for me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 12 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Probably can’t do that at a scalar level no… But if you were to say it’s affecting winters? You’d be 100% correct. It’s clearly factorable. Its affecting everything...absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Thanks for the realization….obviously not even close to being way to early. The early 1900’s were hot in Dallas. No but they came like a degree short for all time high in Feb. I think Fort Worth broke it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: I could never live there. 92 is too hot for me. Bring it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Thanks for the realization….obviously not even close to being way to early. The early 1900’s were hot in Dallas. That wasn’t really my intention. It was the 2nd earliest 94+ behind 1996. Yeah the early 1900s were hot, but I haven’t dug deep to see if there was some “yore” in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Today is a extreme diurnal range watch ... Low bottomed out at 26 here .... feel pretty good about a run at 62 which would exceeds 30 Looking upstream, zip appreciable cloud through which the region is now receiving season changing sun. MAV is 58-ish. It'll be a nerd's joy testing that - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 38 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Thanks for the realization….obviously not even close to being way to early. The early 1900’s were hot in Dallas. What does that have to do with being way too early or not? It’s way too early to be 90s regardless, just on a “damn that’s hot” scale. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Wow, that's an ugly mid month for those into early diagnostics ... lot of moving parts to consider. At a step back perspective, there's a clear climate precedence for post early warm episodes, to see the materialization of a -NAO. When looking at the overnight layouts from all three majors .. there's hints of that taking place, so seeing as it matches said climate precedence ... The first most obvious detraction about this outlook would be the D12 distance ... It's really beyond the "confidence horizon" at that range. However ( again ), the historical inference: said outlook fits the motif of mild to warm (relative to season, and by pattern recognition) in the foreground, evolving into -NAO. So we wait. That trough I annotated slipping underneath is of Pacific origin. It's been gaining coherence ... despite the long range. This complicates matters ... if a more aggressive emergence of the NAO transpires ( which I believe is well within the 'realistic' probability envelope ), it could either evolve into a suppressive influence ... or something more ideal where it loads cold into Ontario but doesn't interfere ( negatively) with the wave space as it is forced S of our latitude. This latter scenario sets the stage for ... The sun, working into an 'elastically taut' hemisphere aching for a reason to normalize gradients because of normal seasonal forcing, together with back ground ... this whole evolution above is going to be getting whacked around a bit in future guidance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 44 minutes ago, powderfreak said: What does that have to do with being way too early or not? It’s way too early to be 90s regardless, just on a “damn that’s hot” scale. What it has to do with, is it was hot a lot in the early 1900’s from the stats he posted. So obviously, it’s not way too early there to be hot(90+)that’s all. I found it interesting. Guess one can’t express when they find something interesting. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 46 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Wow, that's an ugly mid month for those into early diagnostics ... lot of moving parts to consider. At a step back perspective, there's a clear climate precedence for post early warm episodes, to see the materialization of a -NAO. When looking at the overnight layouts from all three majors .. there's hints of that taking place, so seeing as it matches said climate precedence ... The first most obvious detraction about this outlook would be the D12 distance ... It's really beyond the "confidence horizon" at that range. However ( again ), the historical inference: said outlook fits the motif of mild to warm (relative to season, and by pattern recognition) in the foreground, evolving into -NAO. So we wait. That trough I annotated slipping underneath is of Pacific origin. It's been gaining coherence ... despite the long range. This complicates matters ... if a more aggressive emergence of the NAO transpires ( which I believe is well within the 'realistic' probability envelope ), it could either evolve into a suppressive influence ... or something more ideal where it loads cold into Ontario but doesn't interfere ( negatively) with the wave space as it is forced S of our latitude. This latter scenario sets the stage for ... The sun, working into an 'elastically taut' hemisphere aching for a reason to normalize gradients because of normal seasonal forcing, together with back ground ... this whole evolution above is going to be getting whacked around a bit in future guidance. I have one eye half way open for that period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 34 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: What it has to do with, is it was hot a lot in the early 1900’s from the stats he posted. So obviously, it’s not way too early there to be hot(90+)that’s all. I found it interesting. Guess one can’t express when they find something interesting. Ha, Wolfie snarls. It’s still too early for 90s. No one wants to deal with that in February. Not in a historical context, just general sense was the discussion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now