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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Your 2012 Spring gonna crash and burn though…ya first 8-10 days look mild, but it will go to crap pretty fast after that. And we’ll be stuck with drizzle and plus or minus a couple degrees either side of 40.  Sounds great. :axe: 

It looks mild to warm straight thru with a cooler day interspersed after a cool front. Looks like a lot of 60’s and some 70’s

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, make sure the most damage to seasonal dependency happens in PF's neighborhood -

No change from the rest of the winter.  We are solidly “winning” the departure game this winter.  Just month after month of +8 or higher.

The fact that November was below normal, then followed by three straight +8< months is a pretty incredible flip of a switch.

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3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

December ended up being a lot worst than everyone thought. You really couldn’t predict that bad of a nightmare from months in advance. January ended up flipping the script but the pac jet ext killed the party. Lately, the jet ext kill any type of winter in the lower 48. It takes weeks to recover now just to have a chance. 

Yeah a bunch of folks pointed out how Canada was blowtorched and with the "Japan bathtub" (love that btw), models were a shit-show re-arranging the ridge/trough couplets EPO/AK/W NA.  Pretty sure even Snowgoose popped in and correctly pointed that out back in January, when the gfs ens/euro ens -weeklies were going bonkers cooling down Canada

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5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah a bunch of folks pointed out how Canada was blowtorched and with the "Japan bathtub" (love that btw), models were a shit-show re-arranging the ridge/trough couplets EPO/AK/W NA.  Pretty sure even Snowgoose popped in and correctly pointed that out back in January, when the gfs ens/euro ens -weeklies were going bonkers cooling down Canada

It's gonna be white grasshoppers?

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Mid March onward looks colder. Maybe some snow.

Serious question, where is all the arctic cold going to come from since it’s all on the other side of the hemisphere in Eurasia? Marginal cold won’t cut it anymore come mid-late March like it does in Dec-Jan-Feb at our latitude. Once you get to 3/15 and beyond it’s game over south of New England minus some freak/very anomalous event 

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19 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Two in a row.   It’s going to suck if a strong La Niña materializes next year for a porking trifecta. 

Not two and a row here but this will probably end up worse then 2015-16 and that was the worst year here in the last 15 yrs +.

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1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Two in a row.   It’s going to suck if a strong La Niña materializes next year for a porking trifecta. 

Enso is becoming less of a factor imo. We had 3 nina’s in a row and we couldn’t get above climo here. Last year’s ratter was a nina and this year’s nino…so it doesn’t matter what the state is, just bank on AN temps and BN snows until we retract the pac jet. That’s the problem. I don’t know what fixes that though…

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12 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

No one correctly forecasted the warmth especially the further north you go, just months and months of +8 to +12

I did ...

I said it last summer/autumn that I thought this winter would be just as disappointing as the last several ...with wind velocity anomalies shredding storm chances and above normal temps with below normal snow fall.

The only problem is, I said it pretty much just like that -  I don't engage in seasonal outlooks in general.

But nothing about this winter surprised me.   I'm just very stoic about it.  I don't give a shit like most.  I like to see big storms but I don't trash my soul when it doesn't happen, or experience psychotropic withdraw symptoms like those that carry on with chart addiction.  It is what it is...

we spring for while.  We'll see what happens in the ides of the month.

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I did ...

I said it last summer/autumn that I thought this winter would be just as disappointing as the last several ...with wind velocity anomalies shredding storm chances and above normal temps with below normal snow fall.

The only problem is, I said it pretty much just like that -  I don't engage in seasonal outlooks in general.

But nothing about this winter surprised me.   I'm just very stoic about it.  I don't give a shit like most.  I like to see big storms but I don't trash my soul when it doesn't happen, or experience psychotropic withdraw symptoms like those that carry on with chart addiction.  It is what it is...

we spring for while.  We'll see what happens in the ides of the month.

Nice one Tip, I of course expected above normal to well above normal temps but it’s very hard to go with +8 to +12 DJFM with November being the coldest month relative to averages 

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It was also a shitty pattern though so I don’t think luck would have helped much here. A combo of stronger Nino and strong pac jet.  That caused no cold to be found prior to any storms. Some narrow exceptions like where Ray is and in CT. 

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