March 2024 disco/obs

[Ginx snewx]

Lots of oh it did this all winter but no one putting out a forecast. Interesting  well Ditty has 70s and 80s so he did.

[Ginx snewx]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The EPS is not even below normal for surface temps.

Totally normal 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Your forecast Mid March to the 25th?

I don't disagree that we may have a cool shot or two. But nothing really stands out to me. I do see colder 850 temps which is why I said it could support a late season event, but again...talk to me inside 5 days. That's where I am at. Overall probably averages normal to AN.

[weatherwiz]

Gotta love the differences between MAV/MET guidance at BDL/BOS tomorrow

BOS for example

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Totally normal 

That is the coldest point and you made my point. Thanks. We don't live in Chicago.

[Typhoon Tip]

In seclusion that pattern is fantastic ...

Unfortunately, beyond that scope it is being beset on all sides by circumstances that are tougher to ignore.

First of which ... seasonal trend. There is a leitmotif going on where pattern projections that could have - and probably should have - performed better than two systems all year.  One of which wasn't event a telecon suggestive event - it was sub-index scaled.  Seasonal trend has a non-negligible factorization. It is often times less quantifiable, too.  If we don't know what the reasons are, it looks like just not being able to roll the dice we need.  In reality, there's a manifold of forces we don't get to acquaint with because they are beyond the capacity of tech and science...and blah blah blah. It's called fractals to us when we are not gods.  LOL 

One such example is ... not the first time an impressive -EPO relay into +PNA timed combination of teleconnectors projections, ( to mention the actualized spatial layout of the ensemble hemispheres) loaded up the hemisphere with 'righteous expectations'.   This happened a month ago, and was signaled for post the 15th of the month ( at that time...) - seem familiar?

Second confidence dimmer is a combination of things. 

One, March ... particularly the 2nd halves, models do something similar every year; they seem to regress seasonal forcing out of the guidance, out in time.  It's like they take in the present day's parameters, which in theory includes the daily +d(watts/sq-m) solar flux ... then spend the next 360 hours of their processing trying to cleanse it out of the run. Way out in time ... fading back February.  

Two, all that ...and, the background climate change to warm springs earlier and earlier - which unfortunately for some of you ... you attempt to controvert what is incontrovertible, leaping over the definition and absolute limitation of what incontrovertible actually means LOL  

So, that's getting to be a huge list of valid reasons to doubt that pattern will manifest as deep and exotically perfect as that looks. 

Possible?  of course...

But in 1996, that pattern would be more believable because virtually all those aspects above were not in play.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lots of oh it did this all winter but no one putting out a forecast. Interesting  well Ditty has 70s and 80s so he did.

I did.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We have seen that modeled a few times this season and its never been completely successful....it was a complete failure in December and February. I am going to go ahead and call BS on that once again considering that the MJO is going to be traversing the MC at a decent amplitude. Sure, maybe just an ass-like period and not an all out torch, but remember....we can end up with a solidly above average month via just mild daily mins, too.

Yeah ..I was going to mention the MJO in that diatribe I just leveled but  ... the list-o-doubts was growing.  

I'm not huge fan of MJO inclusion though.  We've seen its 'correlative coherence' too blurred in the past. Sometimes it's passing through some phase spaces with strength and panache and the hemisphere over eastern Pac and N/A continent doesn't seem to even be aware it was there. 

Like I've said a dozen times before ... the MJO is either a constructive or destructive modifier - it doesn't "drive" the patterns. 

That said, with failing cold/stormy patterns + March + CC ...all being factor-able considerations, a whopper MJO progression between phase 3.5 to 6.5 kinda maybe should be constructively asserting a warm result. 

Tough call... ensembles are like 30 members deep in weight so ... in deference to raw arithmetic density we have to table it -

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ..I was going to mention the MJO in that diatribe I just leveled but  ... the list-o-doubts was growing.  

I'm not huge fan of MJO inclusion though.  We've seen its 'correlative coherence' too blurred in the past. Sometimes it's passing through some phase spaces with strength and panache and the hemisphere over eastern Pac and N/A continent doesn't seem to even be aware it was there. 

Like I've said a dozen times before ... the MJO is either a constructive or destructive modifier - it doesn't "drive" the patterns. 

That said, with failing cold/stormy patterns + March + CC ...all being factor-able considerations, a whopper MJO progression between phase 3.5 to 6.5 kinda maybe should be constructively asserting a warm result. 

Tough call... ensembles are like 30 members deep in weight so ... in deference to raw arithmetic density we have to table it -

I agree the MJO isn't everything, but given the tendency of the past several years to exert Maritime influence at least excuse imaginable, its tough to envision that signal being muted. I don't see why that trend would reverse now when it hasn't all season long....the west PAC remains ablaze. 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Buckle up chicken man. You about to go back to winter.

Back to +5 to +10 and little snow?

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Back to +5 to +10 and little snow?

That's your forecast. We score

[Typhoon Tip]

Summing all ... I would consider a mid latitude continent forced toward a 0 SD temperature anomaly distribution during the 15th through 25th. 

I.e., normal temperatures.

Getting normal forced at any time span is, in a relative sense, like below normal?  Think of what takes of a pattern to actually get that to happen.   I've seen countless 'cold patterns' since 2010 end up being +0.05 ... even having a couple days in the nadir with knuckle aching air masses.

I wouldn't be surprised, also ... if the flow begins to start relaxing out from underneath that pattern scaffold/well constructed R-wave look of that.  I could see that end up more bowling event prone actually, within a vestigial look that matches. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Back to +5 to +10 and little snow?

Maybe he meant Northfield NJ?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Summing all ... I would consider a mid latitude continent forced toward a 0 SD temperature anomaly distribution during the 15th through 25th. 

I.e., normal temperatures.

Getting normal forced at any time span is, in a relative sense, like below normal?  Think of what takes of a pattern to actually get that to happen.   I've seen countless 'cold patterns' since 2010 end up being +0.05 ... even having a couple days in the nadir with knuckle aching air masses.

I wouldn't be surprised, also ... if the flow begins to start relaxing out from underneath that pattern scaffold/well constructed R-wave look of that.  I could see that end up more bowling event prone actually, within a vestigial look that matches. 

Agree. Normal is the new below normal. NoP favored post 3/15 for a cutoff bowler. 

[Ginx snewx]

Some seem to forget Feb 13th to 21st was BN with snow cover. Models advertised it . I think 16th to 23rd BN with a snow event. Why is that getting the doomer replies? There is support for it across multiple models 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Some seem to forget Feb 13th to 21st was BN with snow cover. Models advertised it . I think 15th to 22nd BN with a snow event. Why is that getting the doomer replies? There is support for it across multiple models 

5 of those days at Blue Hill were BN. A lot easier to get snow in Feb vs end of March too. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Some seem to forget Feb 13th to 21st was BN with snow cover. Models advertised it . I think 16th to 23rd BN with a snow event. Why is that getting the doomer replies? There is support for it across multiple models 

Dude, the favorable stretch was not advertised as one week...it verified as such.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

5 of those days at Blue Hill were BN. A lot easier to get snow in Feb vs end of March too. 

Yea you didn't snow like we did and I was using my data where we had 8 inches and cover for a week. IDK 522 heights kinda makes it easier to snow in March

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dude, the favorable stretch was not advertised as one week...it verified as such.

Modeling not human

[dryslot]

Flood watches are up here, So far we've had 1.75" with another 1-2"+ overnight into tomorrow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Modeling not human

It was modeled as a very wintry month, and it verified as a wintry week.

[Ginx snewx]

47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I did.

So AN no snow rest of the month is your call. Ok I just want the snipers to lay their forecast out. The Monday morning QBs

[40/70 Benchmark]

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 2/29/2024 at 7:01 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Much Milder Than Anticipated February Likely Signals End of Winter 2024

Western Pacific Plays Key Role in Very Warm February

 

Here is the February 2024 forecast H5 composite:

 

 

Which was reasonably well supported by guidance at the close of the month.

 

 

 

But one key difference that is noted between the forecast charts above and what actually verified are the very low heights in the general vicinity of the Bering Sea.

 

This is indicative of a very pronounced positive phase of the West Pacific Oscillation, which is a cousin of the East Pacific Oscillation that is frequently referenced here on Eastern Mass Weather.
 

 

This is likely the primary reason why the the MJO spent much less time in phase 8 than forecast, which resulted in a much warmer northeastern CONUS than expected and significantly less high latitude blocking.

 

  

 

Note the similarity between the +WPO loading map above with not only the previously posted February 2024 H5 chart, but also the pattern favored during phase 3 of the MJO during a warm ENSO month of February.

 

This makes sense since the MJO is emerging in phase 3 after a very truncated passage through phase 8.

 

 

 

Forecasts from Latter January were for the MJO to Spend Upwards of One Week in Phase 8

 

 

This is the proverbial "smoking gun" for the failed February forecasts and the reason why the forecast for normal to -2F February departures across the region:
 

 

Ended up more in the vicinity of +3 to +5F range.

 

 

 

The pattern did in fact turn cold with an opportunity for a major winter storm as advertised during the mid month flirtation with MJO phase 8, however, it only lasted one week due to the rapid translation of the MJO into the neutral circle. 

And once again the storm potential went unrealized.

 

This is reflected by the drier than average monthly precipitation departure.

 

This was not at all inconsistent with the precipitation anomaly forecast composite.

1991-2020:

 

 However, the very warm temperatures departures combined with the relative dearth of precipitation illustrated above to ensure much below average snowfall across most of the region.

 

While the colder interlude of mid February was much shorter in duration and less remarkable than forecast, the warmer transition marked by a precipitous decline in the PNA near month's end in accordance with the emergence of the MJO into the Maritime continent appears right on schedule.

 

 

Mild Month of March Spells an Early End to Winter

 

March 2024 Outlook

March Analogs: 1966,1973(X2),1977,1983,1987, 2007, 2010(X2), 2016

Here is the forecast H5 composite for the month of March:

 

 

Versus Current Guidance:

 

Monthly temperature departures should range from +2 to +4 across New England and the mid Atlantic.

 

 

And this also has some support from the CFS guidance:

 

 

 

Precipitation is expected to be near to slightly above normal across New England and near normal to slightly below average precipitation cross the mid Atlantic.

 

The forecast philosophy is that the MJO should spend the vast majority of the month passing through the Maritime continent, with mild temperatures and significant snows confined to mostly northern New England.

 

 

The first major test for this postulation should come during the second week of the month.

 

Very Mild & Tranquil Start to March Before Storminess Week Two

The first week of March is highly likely to be mild and quiet, as very low heights build into the west courtesy of a deep RNA, which will trigger the development of a strong ridge over the northeast CONUS.

 

However, the second week offers major storm potential with cross-ensemble cluster support centered on Saturday-Sunday March 9th to 10th.

 

 

 

Since the ridging that will encompass the northeast during the first week of the month is expected to translate northward into the higher latitudes, not unlike the January progression, guidance currently indicates some winter storm risk for the region. However, climatology (nearing mid March) coupled with the progression of the MJO into the Maritime continent (phase 4 or 5) dictates that the very coldest outcome would likely yield significant impacts relegated to the same regions that received heavy snows during the January 7th event (interior north and west of Boston).

 

 

 

  However, the far more likely outcome given the anticipated progression for the MJO is that this particular event will be focused further inland, higher in elevation and to the north, closer to the cold air source.

 

 

 

 

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So AN no snow rest of the month is your call. Ok I just want the snipers to lay their forecast out. The Monday morning QBs

 

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was modeled as a very wintry month, and it verified as a wintry week.

I don't remember the entire month being modeled cold and snowy but I guess there could have been a EURO weekly run. All the CFS and EURO Ukmet seasonal had a warm Feb

[40/70 Benchmark]

The call for the storm this weekend worked out fine.

 the second week offers major storm potential with cross-ensemble cluster support centered on Saturday-Sunday March 9th to 10th.

 

 

 

Since the ridging that will encompass the northeast during the first week of the month is expected to translate northward into the higher latitudes, not unlike the January progression, guidance currently indicates some winter storm risk for the region. However, climatology (nearing mid March) coupled with the progression of the MJO into the Maritime continent (phase 4 or 5) dictates that the very coldest outcome would likely yield significant impacts relegated to the same regions that received heavy snows during the January 7th event (interior north and west of Boston).

 

 

 

  However, the far more likely outcome given the anticipated progression for the MJO is that this particular event will be focused further inland, higher in elevation and to the north, closer to the cold air source.

 

[kdxken]

On 2/29/2024 at 3:20 PM, dendrite said:

GFS and Euro ops flirt with 70° next Wed. We’ll see. 

Not here. No threat whatsoever.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I don't remember the entire month being modeled cold and snowy but I guess there could have been a EURO weekly run. All the CFS and EURO Ukmet seasonal had a warm Feb

No, it was never supposed to be particularly cold, but not as warm as it was. The modeled progression was significantly more favorable.

[kdxken]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So AN no snow rest of the month is your call. Ok I just want the snipers to lay their forecast out. The Monday morning QBs

All hot all the time crew is struggling.