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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Both EPS and GEFS have a mega EPO negative signal. That's a cold shot combined with a rising PNA . So after the 15th looks BN 

index (2).png

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2 weeks away

Surely it’ll verify this time

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Both EPS and GEFS have a mega EPO negative signal. That's a cold shot combined with a rising PNA . So after the 15th looks BN 

index (2).png

index (3).png

We have seen that modeled a few times this season and its never been completely successful....it was a complete failure in December and February. I am going to go ahead and call BS on that once again considering that the MJO is going to be traversing the MC at a decent amplitude. Sure, maybe just an ass-like period and not an all out torch, but remember....we can end up with a solidly above average month via just mild daily mins, too.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The only thing it could provide is an interesting late season event should everything come together right, but again talk to me inside 5 days. Just like these next two events.

Totally agree.

Its such a wet pattern that I can totally see a relative absence of "nice" weather, yet a string of days with relatively stagnant temps so that the high daily mins drive up the monthly departure, like January 2021. There are alot of those sneaky warm stretches during the CC era.

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24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We have seen that modeled a few times this season and its never been completely successful....it was a complete failure in December and February. I am going to go ahead and call BS on that once again considering that the MJO is going to be traversing the MC at a decent amplitude. Sure, maybe just an ass-like period and not an all out torch, but remember....we can end up with a solidly above average month via just mild daily mins, too.

All in myself. Teleconnections this time in sync. My forecast. Solid BN for a week with a snow event tossed in . 15th thru 22nd .

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26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We have seen that modeled a few times this season and its never been completely successful....it was a complete failure in December and February. I am going to go ahead and call BS on that once again considering that the MJO is going to be traversing the MC at a decent amplitude. Sure, maybe just an ass-like period and not an all out torch, but remember....we can end up with a solidly above average month via just mild daily mins, too.

I don't remember epo forecasted in the negative 5/6 range but I will take your word for it.

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21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Totally agree.

Its such a wet pattern that I can totally see a relative absence of "nice" weather, yet a string of days with relatively stagnant temps so that the high daily mins drive up the monthly departure, like January 2021. There are alot of those sneaky warm stretches during the CC era.

Yea that’s how it looks. Very Far from a march 2012 torch and just far enough from a SoP snow potential. 

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4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I'm not going to be surprised if we get some late season annoying event. Too little too late.  But this rain sucks

Dude ... after the 40 or 50 years of our lives [probably] suffering the vicissitudes of New England climate betwixt March 10 and May 10 ... this doesn't suck.  It just is...

     normal

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31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Buckle up chicken man. You about to go back to winter. 10 days away here's a 5 day composite  oh and Congrats Dendy

index (4).png

One thing I will agree with, is there happens to be a strong low during that time, you could bring some of that cold down to the surface. That’s where your snow potential exists. 

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