March 2024 disco/obs

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Oh ok. You keep laughing at my posts but all I am saying is the big EC torch that some are hyping that it will last straight through spring ain’t happening. The thing is though the blocking episodes did occur this “winter” to varying degrees, but we mostly crapped out with backyard snows. 
 

Still, it’s ugly we have to keep fighting a poor pac so until that changes more of the same incoming.

January was bad luck, but there is no question that February shit the bed and December was worse than thought....at least AFAIC. Sure, we missed a nice window for a storm in February, too, but the month was just much less favorable than I had predicted in general. It was much worse than predicted and the bad luck carried over.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Seems like we may have to dodge some crappy onshore flow at times, but overall a mild look first 10 days or so.

Yeah .. agreed.

Was tracking the possibility that a more substantial 'heat burst' synoptic interval might nest in there but that appears to be shrinking pretty obviously at this point. 

One aspect that is still out there for me is a regression beyond the 10th regardless of what happens in the foreground.  In fact, there's already telecon support - granted it is out at the edge of the "probability horizon,"  the NAO appears prone to tanking by both experience at this time of year and blah blah. 

For winter enthusiasts ... pump the breaks.  'Have to keep in mind that July is still coming, and in order to get there, the sun is climbing ...and it does so at a particularly fast rate during March. It does begin to diabatically force the hemisphere, detectably so even between March 1st and the 10th. BUT, if overcome, look out!  Some of the biggest bombs in history have takin' place in that window for good reason.  If there is an anomalous wave in the flow that entangles a pocket of cold ...the whole thing can get a kind of diabatic "steroid injection" ... etc.

Not saying that's happening... but the NAO is unanimously sloping toward -1.5 SD, and it's not a "spike" ( which is dubious behavior for that particular index), but takes place over a week's time and is descending along a non-perturbed trajectory - gives it more credence.  Meanwhile, the PNA rises from -3 SD this week, toward neutral.  It's not exactly positive?  The +delta is likely more telling with that.  

It's just the way the 'experimental' extended range has continued to look.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah .. agreed.

Was tracking the possibility that a more substantial 'heat burst' synoptic interval might nest in there but that appears to be shrinking pretty obviously at this point. 

One aspect that is still out there for me is a regression beyond the 10th regardless of what happens in the foreground.  In fact, there's already telecon support - granted it is out at the edge of the "probability horizon,"  the NAO appears prone to tanking by both by experience at this time of year and blah blah. 

For winter enthusiasts ... pump the breaks.  'Have to keep in mind that July is still coming, and in order to get there, the sun is climbing ...and it does so at a particularly fast rate during March. It does begin diabatically force the hemisphere, detectably so even between March 1st and the 10th.  Some of the biggest bombs in history have takin' place in that window for good reason.  If there is an anomalous pocket of mechanics and cold and it gets a kind of diabatic "steroid injection" ... etc.

Not saying that's happening... but the NAO is unanimously sloping toward -1.5 SD, and it's not a "spike" ( which is dubious behavior for that particular index), but takes place over a week's time and is descending along a non-perturbed trajectory.  Meanwhile, the PNA rises from -3 SD this week, toward neutral.  It's not exactly positive?  but moving the delta is likely more important with that.  

 

Man, the atmosphere is just trolling us, at this point....its as though it could sense your interest in that potential, and abruptly withdrew.

Interesting in a morbid sense....

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, the atmosphere is just trolling us, at this point....its as though it could sense your interest in that potential, and abruptly withdrew.

Interesting in a morbid sense....

I actually did grin a bit when cursory eval of the charts this morning, but the warm burst idea was never actually depicted/materialized in the daily charts...   It's more of an intellectual thing with me - this phenomenon of "synergistic heat" events - and finding a means to recognize when they may occur given conventional methods.

The initial "signal" ( for lack of better word ) was a +EPO/-PNA/+NAO, while the spatial ensemble means were also ridging.  That seems like a good candidate to test modeling for that phenomenon.  However, there's enough coherent/observable modeling aspects that have emerged since that don't incline that way.  

These synergy heat bombs are a measured result-based phenomenon going on around the world. It's when the synoptic parameters and forecast techniques, et al, point out a warmer pattern, but the model physics appear more adequate in getting the warm pattern correct, not the spiking at some point during the over all warm period - waiting to be nearly right on top of the event if at all.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah .. agreed.

Was tracking the possibility that a more substantial 'heat burst' synoptic interval might nest in there but that appears to be shrinking pretty obviously at this point. 

One aspect that is still out there for me is a regression beyond the 10th regardless of what happens in the foreground.  In fact, there's already telecon support - granted it is out at the edge of the "probability horizon,"  the NAO appears prone to tanking by both experience at this time of year and blah blah. 

For winter enthusiasts ... pump the breaks.  'Have to keep in mind that July is still coming, and in order to get there, the sun is climbing ...and it does so at a particularly fast rate during March. It does begin to diabatically force the hemisphere, detectably so even between March 1st and the 10th. BUT, if overcome, look out!  Some of the biggest bombs in history have takin' place in that window for good reason.  If there is an anomalous wave in the flow that entangles a pocket of cold ...the whole thing can get a kind of diabatic "steroid injection" ... etc.

Not saying that's happening... but the NAO is unanimously sloping toward -1.5 SD, and it's not a "spike" ( which is dubious behavior for that particular index), but takes place over a week's time and is descending along a non-perturbed trajectory - gives it more credence.  Meanwhile, the PNA rises from -3 SD this week, toward neutral.  It's not exactly positive?  The +delta is likely more telling with that.  

It's just the way the 'experimental' extended range has continued to look.

Another March 2012 hype going right down the shitter AWT

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Another March 2012 hype going right down the shitter AWT

Teleconnections are pointing towards a colder period now. Probably normal to slight BN and stormy so we await and we watch.

[NorEastermass128]

The extended looks unsettled. Lots of gray days ahead it looks like. 

[Typhoon Tip]

  let's not start spin-nipping away at the mild period, either.  

It's AN through the 9th or 10th - probably should just keep it at that for now.   I don't personally believe that spurious weird spin up along the SE coast has to be real.  Its happenstance in these guidance is not allowing the surface return flow around the SE retreating high pressure to orient more SW between D6 and 9. 

Remove and/or weaken that and the surface flow ends up SW and that's a different implication for sky and temps.

[CoastalWx]

40 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Teleconnections are pointing towards a colder period now. Probably normal to slight BN and stormy so we await and we watch.

When? Looks warm right through mid month. Lower heights out west for the foreseeable future.

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

When? Looks warm right through mid month. Lower heights out west for the foreseeable future.

Mid March onward looks colder. Maybe some snow.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Mid March onward looks colder. Maybe some snow.

Nothing looks  cold or blocky or wintry on the ensembles. Absolutely nothing 

[CoastalWx]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Mid March onward looks colder. Maybe some snow.

Put that shovel away and move on.  Even here it pretty much comes down to relying on some well timed event post 3/15. I wouldn't wait 2+ weeks for that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Put that shovel away and move on.  Even here it pretty much comes down to relying on some well times event post 3/15. I wouldn't wait 2+ weeks for that.

Yea, I am moving on with one eye open for a rogue deal. Another failed effort on my part in terms of sensible results.

[40/70 Benchmark]

You know it was an abysmal El Nino when I have under 3" for the month of February.....that maybe the worst ever during an El Nino...even 1995 had a 12" event that first week. 

I never, in my most vivid nightmares, anticipated that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Completely shut out in December and under 3" in February here on the NH border.

Un-fucking-real.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Honestly, if I had realized the blocking would have been ABSOLUTELY trivial, then 1972-1973 would have been my top analog. I doubled up on it, as it was.

[SouthCoastMA]

FINAL seasonal total: 12.2" 

Just eeked out last year

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

FINAL seasonal total: 12.2" 

Just eeked out last year

I am 10.5" shy of last year....but honestly, I would take this year due to Jan 7....keep the extra 10.5" that likely feel over 8 seperate 2-hour commutes in February and March.

[Modfan2]

Days like yesterday 45-50 would suffice for most of March, and gradually warm towards April 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

FINAL seasonal total: 12.2" 

Just eeked out last year

I’m near that. But I’d take your season over mine because you had a fun event V day week. 

[Allsnow]

38 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Mid March onward looks colder. Maybe some snow.

We done! Time for 9 months of humidity and warmth 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We done! Time for 9 months of humidity and warmth 

I am reluctant to gve credit to folks who don't publish a seasonal effort, but I read enough from you and Bluewave to know that you asbolutey nailed the impact of that west PAC warm pool this year. Nice recognition of that. I will also credit snowman for the super El Nino call that eeked out, but I do not agee with him that this season was warm due to El Nino.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

55 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Mid March onward looks colder. Maybe some snow.

Put the shovel away but keep your umbrella handy. 

[Allsnow]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am reluctant to gve credit to folks who don't publish a seasonal effort, but I read enough from you and Bluewave to know that you asbolutey nailed the impact of that west PAC warm pool this year. Nice recognition of that. I will also credit snowman for the super El Nino call that eeked out, but I do not agee with him that this season was warm due to El Nino.

Thanks. I thought you did a great job with predicting the very short window of winter this month. My guess was we would get into March with a favorable look but it went to hell fast. 
 

Don’t think much changes next winter outside NNE with the strong Nina. It’s just going to enhance convection where we don’t want it. The Midwest will probably have a huge winter 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Thanks. I thought you did a great job with predicting the very short window of winter this month. I thought we would get into March with a favorable look but it went to hell fast. 
 

Don’t think much changes next winter outside NNE with the strong Nina. It’s just going to enhance convection where we don’t want it. The Midwest will probably have a huge winter 

I'm not sold on strong yet...it could be moderate. ..but with a very active tropical season I think the floor next year is maybe like 1998-1999, which is still a bit better than this year for most.

Funny, you would think I had a great forecast by just eyballing the forecast H5 composite vs reality, but it just didn't translate.

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sold on strong yet...it could be moderate. ..but with a very active tropical season I think the floor next year is maybe like 1998-1999, which is still a bit better than this year for most.

Funny, you would think I had a great forecast by just eyballing the forecast H5 composite vs reality, but it just didn't translate.

December ended up being a lot worst than everyone thought. You really couldn’t predict that bad of a nightmare from months in advance. January ended up flipping the script but the pac jet ext killed the party. Lately, the jet ext kill any type of winter in the lower 48. It takes weeks to recover now just to have a chance. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

December ended up being a lot worst than everyone thought. You really couldn’t predict that bad of a nightmare from months in advance. January ended up flipping the script but the pac jet ext killed the party. Lately, the jet ext kill any type of winter in the lower 48. It takes weeks to recover now just to have a chance. 

One thing I have learned to watch for is that bathtub off of Japan during outlook season. I have been doing this a decade, but still have so much to learn....really starting to expand my scope to a gloabl level when seeking out indicators.

[Allsnow]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One thing I have learned to watch for is that bathtub off of Japan during outlook season. I have been doing this a decade, but still have so much to learn....really starting to expand my scope on a gloabl level when seeking out indicators.

I don’t issue seasonal forecasts but I admire the hours of work you put into it every season. Look forward to reading your thoughts this fall. Hopefully, a Nina like 20-21 haha 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I don’t issue seasonal forecasts but I admire the hours of work you put into it every season. Look forward to reading your thoughts this fall. Hopefully, a Nina like 20-21 haha 

You don't know anything until you realize how little you know.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nothing looks  cold or blocky or wintry on the ensembles. Absolutely nothing 

Your 2012 Spring gonna crash and burn though…ya first 8-10 days look mild, but it will go to crap pretty fast after that. And we’ll be stuck with drizzle and plus or minus a couple degrees either side of 40.  Sounds great.