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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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Yesterday was the start of that awesome run we had in March 2018. Despite a lot of it as rain for most of us outside the Catskills, that was one of the most intense nor’easters I’ve been in. The damage on the coast down in Scituate-Duxbury was some of the worst since 78 and that includes new building codes. 
 

 

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yesterday was the start of that awesome run we had in March 2018. Despite a lot of it as rain for most of us outside the Catskills, that was one of the most intense nor’easters I’ve been in. The damage on the coast down in Scituate-Duxbury was some of the worst since 78 and that includes new building codes. 
 

 

Remember it well. Trees down everywhere.  The first of 3

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36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yesterday was the start of that awesome run we had in March 2018. Despite a lot of it as rain for most of us outside the Catskills, that was one of the most intense nor’easters I’ve been in. The damage on the coast down in Scituate-Duxbury was some of the worst since 78 and that includes new building codes. 
 

 

For wind in my particular area too. More intense and long lasting winds than October 2017 or the one last December. I would put in on par with December 1994 in terms of wind, although that one may have been tropical, pending reanalysis.

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30 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

If there’s a way not to snow this season that will verify. Toss anything sig far and wide until it’s within 48 hrs and even then 

I'm tossing all of it, Lets spring.

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Re the 11th

Late blooming IP blizzard on the Euro... strange looking for a CCB head to do that but that's probably a nod to dynamics winning that, push come to shove.

Major bomb on the GFS ... position less meaningful at this range. Whether that happens as is or not, the general/local hemisphere-synoptic evolution reminds me of 1997 late March.  Fits my personal recall.  Even the ensemble mean bears a likeness, having a well defined multi-contoured low at D7+ range, with spread back toward the coast.  Mid and u/a low cuts off and deepens significantly in the op version, easily too close for comfort there.

GGEM is warmest but it too reaches <980 mb pressure as it is leaving...

All this is 180 to 200 hours out, offered up while their respective ensemble means are lit up with an obvious and continuous signal between Cape Cod and the BM.  Interestingly persistent considering they picked this up at the 'coherence horizon' some D12 or 13 in advance. 

All of which is taking place in a saddling NAO index in the process of retrograding from eastern toward western limb orientation, while a +d(PNA) is underway.

The atmosphere is marginal, but given some of these dynamical juggernaut solutions ...you could even do well with marginal+ as the kinematics are sufficient to overwhelm.

The only thing stopping me from threading this event for early awareness is the modulation antic of typical March.  I have seen a lot of these bigger majors normalize.  Plus, we habitually see the models over amped at this range.  If this were January ...different story.  I'd say if we make D6 and this coherence is stayed/improves ...

It's also a New Moon/spring tide concern late next weekend/11th

 

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31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Re the 11th

Late blooming IP blizzard on the Euro... strange looking for a CCB head to do that but that's probably a nod to dynamics winning that, push come to shove.

Major bomb on the GFS ... position less meaningful at this range. Whether that happens as is or not, the general/local hemisphere-synoptic evolution reminds me of 1997 late March.  Fits my personal recall.  Even the ensemble mean bears a likeness, having a well defined multi-contoured low at D7+ range, with spread back toward the coast.  Mid and u/a low cuts off and deepens significantly in the op version, easily too close for comfort there.

GGEM is warmest but it too reaches <980 mb pressure as it is leaving...

All this is 180 to 200 hours out, offered up while their respective ensemble means are lit up with an obvious and continuous signal between Cape Cod and the BM.  Interestingly persistent considering they picked this up at the 'coherence horizon' some D12 or 13 in advance. 

All of which is taking place in a saddling NAO index in the process of retrograding from eastern toward western limb orientation, while a +d(PNA) is underway.

The atmosphere is marginal, but given some of these dynamical juggernaut solutions ...you could even do well with marginal+ as the kinematics are sufficient to overwhelm.

The only thing stopping me from threading this event for early awareness is the modulation antic of typical March.  I have seen a lot of these bigger majors normalize.  Plus, we habitually see the models over amped at this range.  If this were January ...different story.  I'd say if we make D6 and this coherence is stayed/improves ...

It's also a New Moon/spring tide concern late next weekend/11th

 

Nice post and good take. 

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1 minute ago, eekuasepinniW said:

56.4

Starting to drop thanks to that clump of clouds.  What a great day.... lots of dripping and birds singing.

March 24th is my first-peeper prediction.
First loon April 3rd.

What's going on at Lake Winni, is it ice out yet?  Or maybe I should ask, was there ever an ice in? 

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