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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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35 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Hard to believe we only had one event in each of Nov and Dec, totalling 6.5", most of it in Jan and one shit event Feb.

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So you guys had just one event for all of November and December?  Or one event in November, and one in December?  Your total snow for the season so far is 6.5”? 

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So you guys had just one event for all of November and December?  Or one event in November, and one in December?  Your total snow for the season so far is 6.5”? 
No, one Nov event, one Dec event, totalling 6.5" for those months. It's in my sig. We're 40" for the season

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4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Old man winter this season was like Michael Myers in "Halloween Ends".

The usual suspects *on twitter are still riding the voodoo SSW/weeklies deep winter comes back mid-late March like sea biscuit I see lol

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Your reading comprehension needs work. Blocky/cool start to early spring is not the same as deep winter. 

Should have said on twitter, meant to put that in there. But since you mentioned it, it’s voodoo, how many times this winter will people fall for it? Been failing all winter

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21 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I kinda wanna start a thread for what could be a historic heat burst  -  conjectural +15+ diurnal means for 3 days ?    ... 

We don't get ours in July's like they do in Eurasia, probably do to converging continental with subtropical meridian flows.  It's hard to extend BL when the DPs 78 degrees when there's whole country's aerosol anus pointing right at us, while we're so close to sea level/air density.   I suspect that's why we've been getting so many 92/77 days under 590 hgts.   They're doing 104 in Iowa with that where their sigma starts at 700 feet.  

Anyway, we get our synergy heat in springs it seems.   Can't wait until BTV is 100 on May 8th while HFD is 82 with a S wind. 

We were mid to upper 90s mid April last year.. 

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13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Should have said on twitter, meant to put that in there. But since you mentioned it, it’s voodoo, how many times this winter will people fall for it? Been failing all winter

Oh ok. You keep laughing at my posts but all I am saying is the big EC torch that some are hyping that it will last straight through spring ain’t happening. The thing is though the blocking episodes did occur this “winter” to varying degrees, but we mostly crapped out with backyard snows. 
 

Still, it’s ugly we have to keep fighting a poor pac so until that changes more of the same incoming.

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Oh ok. You keep laughing at my posts but all I am saying is the big EC torch that some are hyping that it will last straight through spring ain’t happening. The thing is though the blocking episodes did occur this “winter” to varying degrees, but we mostly crapped out with backyard snows. 
 

Still, it’s ugly we have to keep fighting a poor pac so until that changes more of the same incoming.

It looks pretty damn warm overall, but no sane person is claiming wall-to-wall warmth. We’ll get brief cold shots and the occasional BD. 

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17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It looks pretty damn warm overall, but no sane person is claiming wall-to-wall warmth. We’ll get brief cold shots and the occasional BD. 

I've been pretty vocal myself that I thought mid March may regress some after an early balm period (maybe that's a twitter thing? ).

Not sure of a regressed month, no ... I'm just basing it on the last 30 years of "existential climate" during both autumns and springs - it's pretty clear in my own memory that large scale driven warm surges have faded into often enough -NAOs.  To wit, that has some basic synoptic arguments to back it up 

I remember the October snow storm back in 2011 - can you believe that will be 13 years this fall ?  whole decade, poof  ... Anyway, it was near 80 F in mid early to Mid October, than we had cold nor-easter with cat paws, followed a week later by that event.   That's an extreme case, granted.

Having said all that.. sure, March 2012's probably have a return rate.  

I got to say ...it's hard to 'standardize' any of this though, because springs over the last 10 years have been wildly warm and cold at both ends.

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Oh ok. You keep laughing at my posts but all I am saying is the big EC torch that some are hyping that it will last straight through spring ain’t happening. The thing is though the blocking episodes did occur this “winter” to varying degrees, but we mostly crapped out with backyard snows. 
 

Still, it’s ugly we have to keep fighting a poor pac so until that changes more of the same incoming.

There is no blocking. It’s just all massive EC ridging. We haven’t had any prolonged strong blocking or cold springs in many many years 

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8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Last summer was garbage in the valley and we followed it with a garbage winter. 
I hope it’s Taos dry this summer. 
 

I'm praying for a major drought. It could never rain again and it would be too soon.

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2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah no one's calling for wall-to-wall mild right into summer, that's not gonna happen. Hopefully we can avoid any week long or multi-week disasters ala May '05? etc. though.

 

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There is no blocking. It’s just all massive EC ridging. We haven’t had any prolonged strong blocking or cold springs in many many years 

 

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16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The usual suspects *on twitter are still riding the voodoo SSW/weeklies deep winter comes back mid-late March like sea biscuit I see lol

Yea, look...I clearly have made some mistakes this season but its over, outside of ski country, barring some fluke bowling ball.

Sure, it will cool off mid March....news flash; it won't remain 60 all month-

I will look at this more in May, but in addition to most of the cold dumping on the other side of the globe and the loading west (again) when we have seen it....the favorable periods that I forsaw, although timed correctly, were just very fleeting...especially in February. I feel like my January call was okay, but December and February have been brutal. I think I will get March right.

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