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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

Ger your depression meds. Next 7 days looks miserable. #thiswintersucks

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

Some were calling for temperatures touching 80 and installs.

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It does have some consistency - relative to being 10 or 11 days out+ - in the ensemble means. As Steve mentioned it also does fit the teleconnection outlook for that period of time ( 8th -15th) reasonably well. It could be better in that latter regards, ideally so ... but the +delta(PNA) may be more important there than whether it ultimately goes positive.

I wouldn't be starting threads on that, from this range, without a fuller complement of clad mass-field suggestion, though.  Just me..  It's a candidate for a day 5er until that happens. 

Vitals:

a +d(PNA) that changes mode from -2 or -3 to just shy of 0 SD. Again, not ideal.  But, it does suggest that the non-linear negative interference factor is decreasing ( which ends up being a positive for cyclogen )

-NAO that in itself is uniquely guilty in the past of being a Charlie Brown index.  But this time, the integrated curve looks less "spiked" in nature.  Combining that with a climate inference, negative NAO after eastern mid lat continent warm episodes in early to mid spring, these are confidence builders. However, it should be noted that the -NAO as seen in the ensembles,  is an eastern limb variant to start ... some vague suggestion for retrograde at high latitudes farther out in time.  The east bias in the layout offers room for eastern Lakes/ST L. seaway transits. 

What all that means is that this is a needle thread.  What's new.  I'm sure there is 0 patience to hear the words 'needle' and 'thread' in the same sentence after ... 8 years of it, but it is what it is. 

One aspect is a little interesting is the operational Euro's 'bowling ball' rendition. That's a bit different, and can also fit March climo

 

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9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Looking at your screen name, I Just have to ask you….is your brothers name Test? 

yeah... admittedly, that struck me too as a possible lapse in foresight in selecting a handle that isolates the "ticular" suffix for reader processing ... LOL

It's like going with Richard Head or perhaps the indelible lovable Michael Hunt

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31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah... admittedly, that struck me too as a possible lapse in foresight in selecting a handle that isolates the "ticular" suffix for reader processing ... LOL

It's like going with Richard Head or perhaps the indelible lovable Michael Hunt

I've actually known both of those poor men. I mean,  Richard Head meant the same thing 70 years ago... WTF were their parents thinking :lol:

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41 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah... admittedly, that struck me too as a possible lapse in foresight in selecting a handle that isolates the "ticular" suffix for reader processing ... LOL

It's like going with Richard Head or perhaps the indelible lovable Michael Hunt

Or Richard Hertz from Holden, 

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Euro could be on to something for the ski resorts up north.  Honestly for me that is all that matters right now. Bike and ski season at the same time is always great!   Just gotta avoid days of rain and mud down in the valley. 

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