40/70 Benchmark Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Ensembles looks pretty good for that system, but with the MJO in decent amplitude at phase 4-5, I do not buy it at this time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 1 minute ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: Soda Springs, CA. Add up dem totals, lol. I can't even do that much math but that's like up to 16' of snow. We need an astro physics person to add that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Ensembles looks pretty good for that system, but with the MJO in decent amplitude at phase 4-5, I do not buy it at this time. ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 4 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: I can't even do that much math but that's like up to 16' of snow. We need an astro physics person to add that up. Just what's listed out is 148-188", good lord. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Yeah...it's above 6,000 ...that's like going to Venus to gawk over how hot it is. of course it's hot there. of course elevations get a ton of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is better than the euro The GFS is better huh? You mean the model that kept showing the phantom anafront snow run after run? I’m sure you remember it well because you hyped it all last weekend and kept posting the GFS runs. Yea, it’s a great model, absolutely superb. How much anafront snow did you get today? I haven’t had a chance to check yet…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The GFS is better huh? You mean the model that kept showing the phantom anafront snow run after run? I’m sure you remember it well because you hyped it all last weekend and kept posting the GFS runs. Yea, it’s a great model, absolutely superb. How much anafront snow did you get today? I haven’t had a chance to check yet…. you mean at like 144 hours out? who cares sometimes you complain that people don't like you because you're such a "realist" but this is more grating to read than whatever Tony posted lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The GFS is better huh? You mean the model that kept showing the phantom anafront snow run after run? I’m sure you remember it well because you hyped it all last weekend and kept posting the GFS runs. Yea, it’s a great model, absolutely superb. How much anafront snow did you get today? I haven’t had a chance to check yet…. From Pivotal's website. Explains why the GFS and other NCEP models can wonk out the clown maps. (It's not the model, it's the clown maps). ECMWF, UKMET, and Environment Canada models keep track of precipitation type in a precise way as the model integrates, so we know how exactly much precipitation falls in the form of snow (at least, based on the model’s internal diagnostics). This eliminates any concern about including sleet, graupel, or rain when we compute snowfall for those models. For NCEP models, the bookkeeping for precipitation types is less precise, so mis-categorizing some of the precipitation that fell between data output times is always a risk during mixed precipitation or precipitation that is rapidly changing type. We have adopted an approach that usually avoids erroneously treating sleet as snow for NCEP models, so you should not see a shield of "fake snow" extending well equatorward of the actual snow-sleet line in a large mid-latitude cyclone, for example. Still, it is inevitable that we will sometimes overestimate the fraction of mixed precipitation falling as snow in borderline and transitional environments (usually small in area). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 also yeah it's going to torch until the 10th or so but things likely moderate with some typical late-season wintry chances for the interior afterwards. i don't see anything that advertises prolonged anomalous warmth into mid-month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 44 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Does the word MILLER mean anything to you? It should, it is the champagne of beers after all. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: you mean at like 144 hours out? who cares sometimes you complain that people don't like you because you're such a "realist" but this is more grating to read than whatever Tony posted lmao Oh you’re back again, I figured you couldn’t be far after this morning’s GFS run. You must be getting ready to hype how wonderful, great and epic mid-late March looks. Textbook KU pattern and major blocking and cold is coming right? Stand down. After all your bombastic cold and snow hype busts this winter and last winter you should take some time to work on humility 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 tropical tidbits added the Euro AI https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2024022912&fh=12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah...it's above 6,000 ...that's like going to Venus to gawk over how hot it is. of course it's hot there. of course elevations get a ton of snow. Ah, boo, don't be a spoil-sport, haha. I would absolutely gawk at the intense heat and pressure if I ever went to Venus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Oh you’re back again, I figured you couldn’t be far after this morning’s GFS run. You must be getting ready to hype how wonderful, great and epic mid-late March looks. Textbook KU pattern and major blocking and cold is coming right? Stand down. After all your bombastic cold and snow hype busts this winter and last winter you should take some time to work on humility you okay dude? I think @40/70 Benchmark is a therapist. you should have a chat with him! god bless 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 35 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: Soda Springs, CA. Add up dem totals, lol. I would do anything to experience that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 @snowman19 also, I am aware that the advertised pattern fell through. it's annoying, but there were also a lot of other meteorologists that were excited at the possibilities, and rightfully so. you should find some respected mets on Twitter or even on this forum and shit on them too, while you're at it. sometimes the models just do a really bad job. hell, they couldn't even figure out the Feb 15th storm a day in advance you have also had your fair share of complete fails (as does every other person that forecasts the weather for an extended period of time), but you don't see me ready to pounce on you for it. i also don't put words in your mouth either, but you're just here in bad faith, so i can't expect anything less 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 32 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: Just what's listed out is 148-188", good lord. With high winds, that's a real blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I would do anything to experience that I would too, road trip but you'd have to be there a couple days in advance, no one's getting there now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 i don't really see the point in posting about a warm ass pattern, either. hence why I come off as cold biased... i only really post about things that look conducive for winter weather. i don't see any interesting about 7-10 days of AN with this pattern. most posters are like this like what is there to say about this other than warm and boring? lmao 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 55 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: ? Edit…nm. Found my mjo anomaly link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/02/much-milder-than-anticipated-february.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 10 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: I would too, road trip but you'd have to be there a couple days in advance, no one's getting there now. should be fun to look at the next few days http://newtoreno.com/ca-i80-webcams-sodasprings-eb.htm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: @snowman19 also, I am aware that the advertised pattern fell through. it's annoying, but there were also a lot of other meteorologists that were excited at the possibilities, and rightfully so. you should find some respected mets on Twitter or even on this forum and shit on them too, while you're at it. sometimes the models just do a really bad job. hell, they couldn't even figure out the Feb 15th storm a day in advance you have also had your fair share of complete fails (as does every other person that forecasts the weather for an extended period of time), but you don't see me ready to pounce on you for it. i also don't put words in your mouth either, but you're just here in bad faith, so i can't expect anything less You are unbelievably arrogant and pompous. I would expect no less 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 37 minutes ago, snowman19 said: You are unbelievably arrogant and pompous. I would expect no less I never get that from him at all. Maybe you are confused with the pope. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 44 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: should be fun to look at the next few days http://newtoreno.com/ca-i80-webcams-sodasprings-eb.htm Imagine hours of 5 inches per hour? You can get over two feet between breakfast and lunch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 39 minutes ago, snowman19 said: You are unbelievably arrogant and pompous. I would expect no less I don’t really understand how you can really say this? The guy has been unbelievably candid about everything he posts. We all know there are no guarantees when it comes to this nonsense. Or at least one should realize this. He posted modeling…and commented on it. It did look great. But it didn’t work out. I don’t think that makes him arrogant or pompous. That shit happens all the time. If it had worked out, would you have given him any credit? I think that’s the bigger question. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I never get that from him at all. Maybe you are confused with the pope. Ya…very much so this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah...it's above 6,000 ...that's like going to Venus to gawk over how hot it is. of course it's hot there. of course elevations get a ton of snow. So is Mount Washington…and they don’t even get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 A friend asked for 18z GFS snowmaps .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: A friend asked for 18z GFS snowmaps .. Haha, for your friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now