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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What a frustrating pattern. Instead of developing a nice low to the south, this whole thing just presses SE and kicks it OTS. This effing season can end now. 

Cutters, precip chasing cold, storms bombing too far east/too late. Big rainers. Aside from a fluke storm here it’s another ratter. 

That said, I hope the NNE peeps get clobbered. I’d chase if I weren’t so done with anything wintry. Also, March Madness. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah this was super close to being a nuke....but just enough northern stream nuances to screw it up again.

We discussed this how we in the south could see cold but not snow. Very disappointing but since it is what it is. Time to move on to warmth. I am with Scooter let's start growing some wild stuff. I as always will watch the north guys as they are primed but us flatlands Hasta La Vista

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah this was super close to being a nuke....but just enough northern stream nuances to screw it up again.

I know we've been over this before ... but it's idiosyncratic and dated conversation, neither of which lends well to the general reader.

We have been having trouble phasing. That's the short version.

Longer, it has been a recurrent problem in winters going back some 8 years.  This (obviously) was not true all the times, but the reason (imho) why makes sense that some better phasing performing months have been like March 2018.  Hint, the flow slows... phasing has more success.

 - too much velocity in the hemispheric medium. 

Phasing requires a narrow velocity ratio between N-S motion, vs the W-E ... Particularly, ( I'm just speaking to the generic reader here - ) when the W-E is fast, the S/W embedded bi-pass, or may partially succeed... but the true subsume/captures become physically challenged. 

From orbit this just looks, in general, like the N/stream is just nuance interfering like you say. 

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I know we've been over this before ... but it's idiosyncratic and dated conversation, neither of which lends well to the general reader.

We have been having trouble phasing. That's the short version.

Longer, it has been a recurrent problem in winters going back some 8 years.  This (obviously) was not true all the times, but the reason (imho) why makes sense that some better phasing performing months have been like March 2018.  Hint, the flow slows... phasing has more success.

 - too much velocity in the hemispheric medium. 

Phasing requires a narrow velocity ratio between N-S motion, vs the W-E ... Particularly, ( I'm just speaking to the generic reader here - ) when the W-E is fast, the S/W embedded bi-pass, or may partially succeed... but the true subsume/captures become physically challenged. 

From orbit this just looks, in general, like the N/stream is just nuance interfering like you say. 

Disagree we have had a ton of phasing events the last 8 years not all snowstorms but it's been a constant barrage of phased Nor’easters 

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48 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

I’m at 46” maybe an outside shot at 60” which would be little less than 75% climo. So maybe a C- winter is still in reach

F that. you're too generous. If we got another 12" that would put us at 52" seasonal. the way this winter ran, I can't give it more than D-. :)

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6 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Not a bad member in the euro suite. Is this the NAM and its NW bias or is it sniffing out the warmth better than other models? Think you need to lean NAM for now. 

Nam does very well with sniffing out warmth in marginal setups, I wouldn't discount it.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Nam does very well with sniffing out warmth in marginal setups, I wouldn't discount it.

That’s where I’m at right now.

 

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Quite solid actually if its correct, A lot of those looks like the 12z RGEM.

Euro/Canadians vs Nam/GFS. 

 

9 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

F that. you're too generous. If we got another 12" that would put us at 52" seasonal. the way this winter ran, I can't give it more than D-. :)

With the decent January stretch we had here it’s hard for me to go D-. Right now it’s a D but if this next system ends up producing I might go C-. We’ll need double digits for me to consider though 

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 the thermodynamic properties of this air mass are talcum powder tundra snows tho.

 how are we moderating this very cold thermodynamic aspect prior to the arrival of any mid level WAA fist?

 that's likely what the RGEM is seeing here. 

 the NAM has a routine NW bias ... particularly outside 36 hours - plus, it's the NAM. 

 fwiw, the ICON has been RGEM like for several runs now

 the other global models have been suspect as the Euro early on in this thing had zip...while the GFS was going gonzo.  then ...the GFS backs off (some) and the Euro is presently huge.   the continuity isn't very good in the general synoptic scope.   that said, even the GFS seems ( this 12z) to respect the bl resistance with 6 hr belt of IP down to the MA/NH border, when at the same time it's probably no resolving below 950 mb very well so ...

i think this has a shot at being a surprise cold profiled relative to one's latitude.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Coast and the Coastal plain is the wildcard up here, Back beyond that, Its a lock for mainly all snow.

I've seen plenty of setups like this where Naples is more or less out and I am in. Tip makes a good point about the antecedent airmass. Ironically it's one of the better ones we've had all season. 

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2 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

I've seen plenty of setups like this where Naples is more or less out and I am in. Tip makes a good point about the antecedent airmass. Ironically it's one of the better ones we've had all season. 

Quite honestly, I think your in a good spot for this.

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