Ginx snewx Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 JEFFAFAFAFA a slip south on 6Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Just now, klw said: Elevation is 1240' (it's also in my signature), I cleared at 10pm and then again at 6 am but did not do an on the ground check. We were wiped clean prior to yesterday so I would guess it is about 4" Can't see sigs on mobile thanks enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 GFS is like 5” here and then a period of ZR midday Sat. It probably won’t equate to much glazing given the time of day and year. 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: JEFFAFAFAFA a slip south on 6Z Euro What’s 2m look like on Sat? Goofus has a period of ZR here after 5”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Let’s get this more south. I’d rather clear 15” all snow rather than 8” with R/ZR on top. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Have to say LR models including Euro weeklies have keyed on this storm for a month. Just some variations N/S but qpf/ baro and cold all advertised for the great white North. (Hint if they are right it aint over for you upper elevation peeps) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: GFS is like 5” here and then a period of ZR midday Sat. It probably won’t equate to much glazing given the time of day and year. What’s 2m look like on Sat? Goofus has a period of ZR here after 5”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Oh and LOL March 15th last year did you forget that? I am sure Will Hunchie didn't I don’t mean a rogue snowstorm. I mean a winter month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Qpf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Anniversary today of the Morch firehose storm in 2015. That was the last time Morch was March and winter. Since then it’s gone for good lolololol I love these definitive statements. how about some data: in the 9 Marches up to and including 2015, I averaged 11.75" in the 8 Marches 2016-present, I averaged 11.5" yeah, a whole 1/4" less. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t mean a rogue snowstorm. I mean a winter month 2018 was mighty wintry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t mean a rogue snowstorm. I mean a winter month It's almost like a cycle or something. I can see a teleconnection here for March/ guesses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yup. Sfc front modeled right where they usually end up. Looks like a shitshow Saturday here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: 2018 was mighty wintry. That was an epic stormy month. One after another. Tree disaster month here. 4 Wind heavy rain heavy wet snow events killed me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 BTV hitting the uncertainty Concerningly the latest ECMWF came in very wet (snowy) with storm total QPF in the 1.7" to 2.4" range across most of Vermont, and about half of its ensemble members do have greater than 2" in south central Vermont. This dramatically wetter idea than other global models may be tied a quicker development of a strong upper jet Friday night, and subsequent phasing of the northern stream and southern stream systems, leads to a deeper and more westward coastal low track on Saturday. Given these differences, there unsurprisingly is a large and unfortunately growing spread in our low end and high end snowfall amounts; as an example, Newport, VT, currently has a mostly likely amount of 8" with low end of 3" and high end of 20". Part of the challenge, especially farther south, will be snow ratio forecasts. The snow ratios are rather uncertain similar to snow amounts when you look at the spread amongst model guidance, particularly during the daytime on Saturday. The interquartile range in the NBM snow ratios in a swath from the Adirondacks eastward across central Vermont is about 5:1 to 12:1. Obviously, the lower snow ratio end, if it is all in the form of snow, would be a very wet snow. Currently we are indicating a mix of rain and snow during the day in the valleys locations in this region, which is why snow ratios are even lower at times. Looking at forecast soundings in this area, while strong upward motion will likely be co-located with the snow growth zone, it will be located more than 10,000 feet above ground while a nearly isothermal and relatively warm layer exists close to the surface. Depending on how warm the boundary layer gets, it is reasonable to expect snow character to indeed transition from average to wet by Saturday morning. However, there then will be a period of time late in the event that snow character should trend drier, and the model spread greatly decreases Saturday evening with a 10:1 or higher snow ratio favored. The question is how much liquid will be fall in the wetter snow. Hopefully we can answer that question as we get closer to the event to help predict snow load impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 2 hours ago, Lava Rock said: Over what time period? I'm just going back to 2009 when we moved back to maine Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Seems unlikely that he's had ten years under 24 inches. The official records at Portland, which date to 1881, show the lowest annual total at 27.5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 feels like jan outside. 27.1F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: feels like jan outside. 27.1F Warm. 22° and splitting flakes here with widespread BLSN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 47 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: JEFFAFAFAFA a slip south on 6Z Euro I think northern ORH county down to Dave needs to keep watching 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 15 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Seems unlikely that he's had ten years under 24 inches. The official records at Portland, which date to 1881, show the lowest annual total at 27.5 inches. Corrected that from earlier. Yes, my total for PWM this year is #1 currently. 50 minutes ago, dendrite said: Let’s get this more south. I’d rather clear 15” all snow rather than 8” with R/ZR on top. Now that I see where we're at for futility, let's keep it north and under 2.8" here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 7 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: I think northern ORH county down to Dave needs to keep watching probably would have to see more changes at 12z I think this area could have a period of ZR though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: JEFFAFAFAFA a slip south on 6Z Euro Saw that, Wait and see what todays runs have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 53 minutes ago, dendrite said: Let’s get this more south. I’d rather clear 15” all snow rather than 8” with R/ZR on top. I'm looking at the kitchen sink here right now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 3 minutes ago, tunafish said: Corrected that from earlier. Yes, my total for PWM this year is #1 currently. Now that I see where we're at for futility, let's keep it north and under 2.8" here. A foot here would put me within range of getting near average if we have a decent April 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 I'm at 40.2" on the season, 75" is avg, Don't think we will get there but 2015-16 was 50.1" worst in at least the last 25 yrs may have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'm at 40.2" on the season, 75" is avg, Don't think we will get there but 2015-16 was 50.1" worst in at least the last 25 yrs may have a shot. I’m at 46” maybe an outside shot at 60” which would be little less than 75% climo. So maybe a C- winter is still in reach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 NAM is rain pretty far north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 1 minute ago, NW_of_GYX said: I’m at 46” maybe an outside shot at 60” which would be little less than 75% climo. So maybe a C- winter is still in reach At this point, I'd rather just see rain, I'm not even going to get close to climo avg, If the Nam is right, Its going to be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 What a frustrating pattern. Instead of developing a nice low to the south, this whole thing just presses SE and kicks it OTS. This effing season can end now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a frustrating pattern. Instead of developing a nice low to the south, this whole thing just presses SE and kicks it OTS. This effing season can end now. April snow Have to believe 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a frustrating pattern. Instead of developing a nice low to the south, this whole thing just presses SE and kicks it OTS. This effing season can end now. Yeah this was super close to being a nuke....but just enough northern stream nuances to screw it up again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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