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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, JKEisMan said:

image.thumb.png.4f6e665f15c0110065052c3337d1f750.pngLet the hype begin. As said yesterday though, reasonably consistent cross-model ensemble support been showing up as well.

at this point I could take it or leave it but it would be worth it just to hear my coworkers complain about these NE "winters" and how they need to move south for "better winters, and lower taxes as an added bonus"  

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I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the 10th/11th idea...

I realize that may be subjectively difficult. With the antecedent winter eroding on patience and/or the 'Stockholm Syndrome' thing ... it makes it little more difficult to believe, and also inclines people to just give into a warm extinction of winter. However, there are background reasons aplenty to watch that period.

In step-back principle, any time there is a multi-sourced, multi run cycle continuity (all ens systems) suggesting a Pac wave inject up underneath a -d(NAO) teleconnector modality ... uh.  I mean that's more fun arousing in DJF, granted ... but that smacks pretty loudly (to me) as a 'bowling event' framework.   Well ... we're entering the bowling season. Sometimes when the shoe fits -

Also, the PNA is not actually going positive - I read that a couple times ... It's relaxing from a substantial nadir, perhaps even neutralizing ... just clarifying. 

However, that may be enough to warrant 'period of interest'.  The PNA domain is very large.  Moving it from -3 SD to 0 SD is a delta of +3, which in any scenario ...moving the entire PNA mass-field by 3 whole standard deviations is noteworthy.  Being so large ... the western limb over the Pacific may sImply be offsetting the N/A domain expression (vice-versa).

Regarding the -NAO ... It should be noted that a period of -NAO/ blocking following a interlude of early thaw/warm anomaly has a pretty significant historical precedence. Historical climate methods are taking punches; with the history, itself, become less akin to presence and going forward, that questions the logic of the method.  Cross the bridge ...  

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I use a Ginx/DIT ensemble blend and it’s usually a good forecast. 

Cmon I haven't forecasted anything in a couple months after my Dec fail. I am not ACATT just point out model trends. I have been on the second half of March being ugly, doesn't mean snow for me but bet it does for you. Love me some late March NNE Sierra cement storms. Very least stormy times will return

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Cmon I haven't forecasted anything in a couple months after my Dec fail. I am not ACATT just point out model trends. I have been on the second half of March being ugly, doesn't mean snow for me but bet it does for you. Love me some late March NNE Sierra cement storms. Very least stormy times will return

I guess when there’s some cross guidance support, and ensemble support, and even some teleconnector  support, and you mention this, we’re at the point here now where you’re made fun of for doing so.   What a place. 

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I guess when there’s some cross guidance support, and ensemble support, and even some teleconnector  support, and you mention this, we’re at the point here now where you’re made fun of for doing so.   What a place. 

When did you get so sensy?

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

When did you get so sensy?

Lol..not sensitive, just pointing out that we have some folks that are just ignoring some signs. Nobody is expecting a blizzard next weekend, but we have some signals that are there for a stormy period…which could mean wintry times for some. And the ones pointing it out are being criticized by some folks.  
 

The big warm March is gone…I mean if low 50’s turns you on…then ya knock yourselves out. 

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