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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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Significant changes on the 12z runs so far across the board...  

ICON, GGEM ...GFS

all show less QPF and or differences in the handling of the total weekend scenario.

Maybe the Euro wasn't so wrong originally?    Either way, this continuity change isn't exactly confidence inspiring -

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Wild swings in the globals at this range, sheesh. 12z Canadian swinging for the fences. Has an even nuttier solution for southern Minnesota - tries to spit out more snow in one storm than they get in a season.

Edit* I should point out that most of that QPF is actually falling early Monday. Low actually backs up a little west as it slowly gains latitude.

qpf_acc-imp.us_ne (1).png

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10 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Wild swings in the globals at this range, sheesh. 12z Canadian swinging for the fences. Has an even nuttier solution for southern Minnesota - tries to spit out more snow in one storm than they get in a season.

Edit* I should point out that most of that QPF is actually falling early Monday. Low actually backs up a little west as it slowly gains latitude.

qpf_acc-imp.us_ne (1).png

Such vast,  putrid continuity demonstrations ... can't rule out or in any solution, really.

With that, the probability of this (abv) being more right than wrong is very low for the time being. 

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Great question....because regardless of ENSO state, or what the arctic is doing, the forcing has remained predominately pinned over the MC and that has been informative. But you are right....its not just one thing and eventually it will be something else....but for now, that is the driver.

Fair enough..agreed. :thumbsup:

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

People still dont get that the heater in March 2012 averaged 20 AN for 8 days starting the 3rd week of March. Some days were 35 plus.

What is there not to get? The departures are what they are...I didn't manipulate the data. So we have gotten there through warmer nights...its still a huge anomaly.

The second half will be colder, yes....agreed.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is there not to get? The departures are what they are...I didn't manipulate the data. So we have gotten there through warmer nights...its still a huge anomaly.

The second half will be colder, yes....agreed.

It was 12 days of extreme warmth that made March 12 stand out. This is child's play. March 12 started chilly ended chilly but the blow out  for 12 days is what stands out. No normal human cares about temp depar because of warmer nights. They remember being on Salisbury beach with 80 degree temps for 4 days and 70s for 7

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

44 and partly sunny. I hope they open up heating stations for the homeless.

Not bad in the sun but the wind is not warm . Well maybe in your normal tropical location in Souuth Weymouth.  Can you imagine sleeping outside tonight. 

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It was 12 days of extreme warmth that made March 12 stand out. This is child's play. March 12 started chilly ended chilly but the blow out  for 12 days is what stands out. No normal human cares about temp depar because of warmer nights. They remember being on Salisbury beach with 80 degree temps for 4 days and 70s for 7

Sure, but utlimately departures are how we measure monthly outcomes. We are all in agreement this has been a more unsavory warmth than 2012.

Yep.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sure, but isn't the issue. We are all in agreement this has been a more unsaory warmth than 2012.

Yep.

It's sure is the issue. Ask anyone alive if they think this month compares to March 12 warmth 

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