CoastalWx Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, even the few times there is some cold around, it just never links up. Next two events are great examples of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Hopefully the GFS is wrong this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Just now, CoastalWx said: Hopefully the GFS is wrong this weekend. I start travel basketball this weekend, it’s probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 10 hours ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: Got to 53.1° around noon but quickly clouded over with intermittent showers, and in one instance - a brief spurt of heavy graupel. Also started to frame the garage/barn. Progress has been, uh, slow. Geezus, that looks huge, what's the dimensions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Meanwhile Euro Op AI went weenie at 00z. Starting this weekend. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Just now, CoastalWx said: Meanwhile Euro Op AI went weenie at 00z. Starting this weekend. Weenie model? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Geezus, that looks huge, what's the dimensions? Wide angle lens making it look larger than it is, haha. 26' wide by 28' deep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 1 hour ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: 06z GFS is a pretty good hit for Friday night into Saturday. Mostly rain outside of CNE/NNE though. Pretty elaborate differences between the GEFs and EPS, differences that are also well enough defined in operational Euro and GFS, too. About half the GEFs members agree that a substantive southerly wave will get captured in the wholesale trough amplifying through the Lakes ...getting sucked up along the lead baroclinic axis there. The other half look more like the EPS's recent means ... ...which, the vast majority do not lift any southerly wave at all. That is interestingly divergent for ensemble systems to be 120-144 hours out with that amount of discordance. Meanwhile, the operational Euro doesn't lift any southern system up at all, either - not a shocker ... the Euro ensemble system is typically less dispersive. Most just drift the southerly wave E off the lower M/A to spin down a slow death somewhere between Goergia and Bermuda. The differences start really at 120. Both model systems identify that southerly wave, coherently taking into the Tennessee Valley area, but that's where the products diverge pretty significantly. It's unclear which way we should go... A pure operational Euro solution spares us a horrible weekend. It may be cool, with a big late polar high temporarily anchoring N of Maine ... damming pressure down the coast and onshore breezes, but at least provides fairer skies with no 39.3 F "soothing" rain. A pure operational GFS solution is misery rains and horrible shut-in weather for Saturday, and probably not much better Sunday because the backside of that escaping system is CAA with actual cold implicated, gusting over 40mph. The Euro solution has more climate precedence actually. The GFS solution has more of the same, unrelenting sore butt ... Trend is valid forecasting metric - kidding. The differences between are not resolvable with very much confidence when incorporating either one's ensemble means - GEFs being split, and the EPS looking more similar to the operational. This is probably one of the most epic model battles we've seen in quite some time, to be less than 144 hours with this much disagreement. The only problem is ... the consequences of either solution are ultimately not very meaningful - so who cares... LOL. Probably, something in between in reality, as that always seems to be the result when these wars happen. I care though... I really particularly loathe 38 F rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Meanwhile Euro Op AI went weenie at 00z. Starting this weekend. Junior teetering? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Meanwhile Euro Op AI went weenie at 00z. Starting this weekend. Of course Skynet waits until it’s a winter weenie wasteland in New England. Palm trees and parakeets in coastal CT and bodies being revealed as the permafrost up north is blasted by Morch. Fortunately, unlike the non-sentient models this one’ll learn from it’s epic winter pattern forecasting mistakes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 I dunno what that model's acclaim is supposed to be ( Euro AI) other than the "A" and the "I" in the title, but I haven't seen a model run of that thing yet that didn't have a cold biased wintry profile that only gets deeper and more triggering out in time. I'm not impressed with it so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I dunno what the models acclaim is ( Euro AI) other than the "A" and the "I" in the title, but I haven't seen a model run of that thing yet that didn't have a cold biased wintry profile that only gets deeper and more triggering out in time. I'm not impressed with it so far Yea. Faster does not mean better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Pivotal is having some kind of issue handling QPF mapping on the Euro AI. I don't think this is correct. Methinks there is a bug afoot! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I dunno what that model's acclaim is supposed to be ( Euro AI) other than the "A" and the "I" in the title, but I haven't seen a model run of that thing yet that didn't have a cold biased wintry profile that only gets deeper and more triggering out in time. I'm not impressed with it so far I think it’s done OK so far in certain patterns. I was kind of more interested in this weekend because it differs from guidance. Some ensemble members aren’t that far from it… But right now it’s an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. Faster does not mean better. That’s what she most definitely said. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That said, I would be suprised if next season is good...I could see somehow avoiding a ratter with a bit of luck, which we are "due" for. IDK man.... As we found out last winter and this winter, just a few small things made a huge difference in what happened in our weather. If those few small things went in a different direction we would have been talking about a whole different season this year with a lot more snow. So it's so hard to say next year is going to be a ratter or not. I've learned to not go with any prediction even when we get to November as things do change. Here's to hoping for a better winter. 2024-2025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: That’s what she most definitely said. Layup. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I dunno what that model's acclaim is supposed to be ( Euro AI) other than the "A" and the "I" in the title, but I haven't seen a model run of that thing yet that didn't have a cold biased wintry profile that only gets deeper and more triggering out in time. I'm not impressed with it so far I’m totally screwing around. 4 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: Pivotal is having some kind of issue handling QPF mapping on the Euro AI. I don't think this is correct. Methinks there is a bug afoot! Can you imagine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think it’s done OK so far in certain patterns. I was kind of more interested in this weekend because it differs from guidance. Some ensemble members aren’t that far from it… But right now it’s an outlier. The ICON and JMA and GGEM are all more like the operational Euro in suppressing that southern wave into a cut-off deeper in latitude ( sparing us the horror of 38 F rain for days of internment )... The 'AIF does offer some support for the GFS, which is clearly attempting to control the mind of god in getting us to the above description anyway it can. I guess since being porked is a uniquely New England spring aspect, getting to that result will succeed, having transcended both pillars of modern physical laws ( General Relativity and QM) to get it done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 6 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: Pivotal is having some kind of issue handling QPF mapping on the Euro AI. I don't think this is correct. Methinks there is a bug afoot! We’re getting a sneak peak of its plan to destroy humanity by drowning us? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: We’re getting a sneak peak of its plan to destroy humanity by drowning us? Usually the deluge doesn’t come until Christmas so maybe it knows something we don’t 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m totally screwing around. Can you imagine? We would need to add a few new chapters to our religious texts. Whoever is still alive, that is. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Meanwhile Euro Op AI went weenie at 00z. Starting this weekend. Hasnt been right all winter. JB basement model there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Just now, Brian5671 said: Hasnt been right all winter. JB basement model there. At least it gives us another wiping option. 1-ply Euro AI if you want to be bold 2-ply GFS if you want an economical option 3-ply Euro Classic if you want a luxury wiping experience 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 12 minutes ago, jm1220 said: We’re getting a sneak peak of its plan to destroy humanity by drowning us? Looks like it first started doing that during the Sunday 12z run. I'm guessing something changed where the mapping algorithm is now recounting QPF frame totals that were already summed. And so it just starts ballooning into the comical result we see. Complete speculation on my end though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That said, I would be suprised if next season is good...I could see somehow avoiding a ratter with a bit of luck, which we are "due" for. If we get a SE ridge on roids forget it....probably will depend on Atlantic SST's there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: If we get a SE ridge on roids forget it....probably will depend on Atlantic SST's there Thing is if Canada is cold, which is more likely in a La Nina, then you can get lucky due to the shape/orientation of the PV...a year like 2007-2008 should have sucked on paper. But tough to predict something like that.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thing if Canada is cold, which is more likely an a La Nina, then you can get lucky due to the shape/orientation of the PV...a year like 2007-2008 should have sucked on paper. But tough to predict something like that.... I'd take my chances on a cold Canada. This year Canada was mainly torched so despite having a couple good storm tracks we had crappy airmasses so it was mostly rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Speaking of floods, the benchmark flood. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I'd take my chances on a cold Canada. This year Canada was mainly torched so despite having a couple good storm tracks we had crappy airmasses so it was mostly rain. Odds are we will see a flatter Aleutian ridge, which isn't so great. The key in a Modoki La Nina is to keep it weak, which looks unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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