ineedsnow Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 that solution would save winter lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 Wow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 Days and Days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 Told ya .... https://phys.org/news/2024-03-extratropical-ocean-atmosphere-interactions-contribute.html ...15 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 I would be above seasonal avg verbatim on the GFS and CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wow That's like snowing really hard with nothing sticking ... not below 1200 or so... I think though that the GGEM having a warm bl bias in this time range above, 'might' make that interesting with the perfunctory correction. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yeah. There definitely is tele support for something to happen Rising NAO from negative to more neutral along with rising AO with the EPO being negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 Just now, SnowLover22 said: There definitely is tele support for something to happen Rising NAO from negative to more neutral along with rising AO with the EPO being negative. This period has been on the models now for several days so yes, Its a strong signal at this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: I would be above seasonal avg verbatim on the GFS and CMC. Guess we have a shot at another one at least. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 Just now, powderfreak said: Guess we have a shot at another one at least. And a strong one at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That's like snowing really hard with nothing sticking ... not below 1200 or so... I think though that the GGEM having a warm bl bias in this time range above, 'might' make that interesting with the perfunctory correction. Snow will stick at 28-32 even in April and verbatim height of storm is at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 With some of these modeled rates, Its sticking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 12 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: Snow will stick at 28-32 even in April and verbatim height of storm is at night. Well sure... but I was just speaking to that chart/interval, specifically. It maybe too warm. ... like I said, the GGEM tends to be too warm in the bl in that mid range stuff. I think it's overall an impressive homage to potential that it's as blue painted in ptype as much as it is at this range. That -NAO over the western limb in the multi-model blend has been hugely consistent for days now - it's like all but definitely going to happen. And it argues that anything delivered out of the NE Pac WILL descend in latitude underneath - the telecon on the shipping route is centered over the Mid Atlantic... The question - for me - is whether that result would bias on the N or S side of the general statistical domain. Because the entrance intervals ( time ) just prior shows heights in positive anomaly, albeit modestly so, over the lower Tenn Valley and adjacent Gulf o/ Mex/Florida and off the SE coast. That's a "Miami Rule" no-no... Some of the wave mechanics in the descent will get absorbed when the flow compresses down there, and is forced to speed up velocity. That's probably why we are seeing these solution - at present - that take the closing mid level centers straight over SNE instead of the idealized S of LI track like those biggies of yore and song. The feed-back process end up more N where more of the wave mechanics are less neg interfered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 Let’s do this instead lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said: Let’s do this instead lol Now that is something we can get behind. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 I just rebuilt after the Canadian modeled canes and now I need to began shoveling out of the modeled Canadian snow. Good luck in SNE with that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Now that is something we can get behind. 'cept laying down a bd boundary that close by is going to see that bd down to cape may nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 Nah I'm counting on your Hadley Cell to muscle in and shift it to CAR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 euro came around to it at 00z. Signal is strong and getting stronger. Long way to go still but you have to like the run to run consistency. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 But yeah...that warming look was even more impressive in the 00z run. How far and wide/long a any warm up in the range ultimately is...the entire continent below the 50th is in general seasonally flushing out the cold. It's like - symbolically - this coastal on the 3-6th is the spring exit event. Thickness gradients relax right after and with much more shallow cool loads that are easier modulated by the powerful April sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 22 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Let’s do this instead lol We really need a warm and dry April after next week’’s NNE KU. Pray. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 Of course it won’t happen because we can’t have favorable weather lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 7 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: euro came around to it at 00z. Signal is strong and getting stronger. Long way to go still but you have to like the run to run consistency. You know what ... it's not out the question that we end up with a snow pack than 2 days later hover 70 F over top. With mud gully rivers flowing out of it, of course. I have seen it be 70 F with snow still on the ground due to an March or April sudden switch. Firstly, sell 20+" for now. But a 4-6" late season urinal blue cookie snow aching to melt when the storm's pulling out, knowing the next day the forecast is 59 F because even though the profiles allow for 72, no one has the ballz to forecast that over a snow pack.... that's always an fun bun for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: You know what ... it's not out the question that we end up with a snow pack than 3 days later hover 70 F over top. With mud gully rivers flowing out it, of course. I have seen it be 70 F with snow still on the ground due to an March or April sudden switch. Firstly, sell 20+" for now. But a 4-6" late season urinal blue cookie snow aching to melt when the storm's pulling out, knowing the next day the forecast is 59 F because even though the profiles allow for 72, no one has the ballz to forecast that over a snow pack.... that's always an fun bun for me. Denver climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Now that is something we can get behind. be careful....it's April....it might end up getting behind you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Guess we have a shot at another one at least. There’s my Apr 1933 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Of course it won’t happen because we can’t have favorable weather lately. Lately being the last year or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 28 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: Denver climo yeah... April ... particularly early April is just perfectly when that is most likely to occur around here. I'm not sure what your history is, but do you remember the 1997 "April Fool's Day storm" ? It was sunny, 64 F at 1:15 pm up at the UML weather lab, while the 12z model runs were coming in with a 4 contoured hornet stinger 500 mb closed low and attending sfc bomb just S of Cape Cod scheduled for 2 days later. The campus was abuzz with that type of passionate fever as though the prison gates were opened and the world was set free. The energy and joy was palpable on that Saturday, mid day. Monday we changed to snow, and that night 9 consecutive hours of S+ with occasional lightning all quadrants was on the Logan Metar. My buddy lived in Wayland, MA ( about 20 mi due W of Boston along Rt 20). He was describing the breath arresting wide-eye pause that overwhelmed him as he swung open the door to see that the 0" of snow on ground the previous evening was now 31" ...tenting over the cars to the point where they were completely and totally encased. This is the more typical society guy. Doesn't really concern for weather forecast, except here or there when it necessarily matters to him. Not like us in here that track cumulus clouds ( haha). So I don't even think he knew there was a winter storm warning in place - or if so, only tacitly aware of it. But then again, LOL, I don't think NWS was much better considering what happened. By the following Saturday, it was 60 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 44 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Let’s do this instead lol Grandkids planting the garden in SNJ (they're about 10 miles south of "79") while we sit under the clouds hoping to reach 50. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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