WinterWolf Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think I went +2 to +4 with little to no snow for March in SNE, so it would be nice if I got something right this year... That sounds about right to me…I think you’re gonna nail this one pal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Just now, WinterWolf said: That sounds about right to me…I think you’re gonna nail this one pal. Of course, the part I nail is the portion that I predicted to blow fatties. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 December and February killed me in terms of temps, but the month that really killed my snowfall totals was February....I needed an escape from the MC that month and instead it happened in late March. I expected this pattern to come a month ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Go ahead and sign me up for the under on 7" here. 06z GEFs mean came back a little ... Yesterday's guidance may have been the typical mid range teaser interval... I'll give it this 12z. This is probably too tedious for the level of interest at this point... but it almost appears to me like the whole modeled hemisphere has two behaviors taking place at the same time. The shortening of the spring wave lengths is attempting to happen at the same time the modeled atmosphere is still accelerating in the mid range. Troughs are sharper ... some even closing/'bowlers' yet ... the models are speeding them up from D7 --> D4. Friday's doing what they were doing all year ( and previous year's worth of seasons for that matter, too - ) and that is to speed up the late mid range as it gets nearer. This speeding up takes something away from the N-S range of amplitude - I'm pretty sure this is why-for the attenuation thing, in general. Either the system in question is weaker, or it just is faster so it's impact is weaker - either way. Very consistent modeling error. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Nice way to start of your day with some FRDRZ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: We were double that a week ago…positives departures getting knocked back significantly as we thought. Frigid stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Frigid stuff +6.8F on the month. That’s chilly by today’s standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 41 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: 06z GEFs mean came back a little ... Yesterday's guidance may have been the typical mid range teaser interval... I'll give it this 12z. This is probably too tedious for the level of interest at this point... but it almost appears to me like the whole modeled hemisphere has two behaviors taking place at the same time. The shortening of the spring wave lengths is attempting to happen at the same time the modeled atmosphere is still accelerating in the mid range. Troughs are sharper ... some even closing/'bowlers' yet ... the models are speeding them up from D7 --> D4. Friday's doing what they were doing all year ( and previous year's worth of seasons for that matter, too - ) and that is to speed up the late mid range as it gets nearer. This speeding up takes something away from the N-S range of amplitude - I'm pretty sure this is why-for the attenuation thing, in general. Either the system in question is weaker, or it just is faster so it's impact is weaker - either way. Very consistent modeling error. Yea, at this point I'm just of the mind to toss all significant SNE snow until its imminent. About the extent of any further investment for me as it relates to this particular season. I start obsessing for weeks at a time during the back half of the summer, so I am just completely done if the season has failed to deliver at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: +6.8F on the month. That’s chilly by today’s standards. I’m just looking at the few slightly BN days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Frigid stuff Ya the cold stretch knocked it down 3 degrees. It definitely felt worse than what the numbers show but still +7 for the month. Few days of 55-60 coming will probably finished working +8 for the month in CT at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: Frigid stuff Huh that's strange no '70s and '80s? Boston 3.8 over for the month wish we didn't live here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, at this point I'm just of the mind to toss all significant SNE snow until its imminent. About the extent of any further investment for me as it relates to this particular season. I start obsessing for weeks at a time during the back half of the summer, so I am just completley done if the season has failed to deliver at this stage. Agree this overall sentiment. ...altho, I don't engage in the winter stuff in 'late summer' ( ha ) but yeah. By this time? I really start checking out every year around Feb 20th, actually - by that date we're already 10 days post the end of the solar nadir and into the solar transition season. One could argue that is really the first zygote of spring... Not March 1. Not March 21st. February 10, because that is the celestial mechanics-dictated date whence the hemisphere solar irradiance watts/sqr-m, inflects toward positive more steeply. The opposite is true on November 9th, whence the beginning of the solar minimum/bottom out takes place. That's why I like the rare front-loaded winter. Takes advantage of the igloo day-light when the snows are falling. Real gelid, not that transient stuff you have to think about it while its snowing; on Feb 20 seasonal change is screwing with the splendor of it all. The models might even be tapping the 60 deg butt cervix the next week. Obviously there is a significant climate lag every year ( or at least used to be. Ha ). It takes time for the whole planetary system to respond to brightening(dimming) at either end. That's why I say I merely "start" to check out. lol. The total check-out process take about 2 to 3 weeks. By the 2nd week of March, I'm getting pretty indifferent ... Don't hate the late snow rareness'. Don't love 'em. Post the equinox? I'm entering the spectrum of annoyed. I hate this weather right now. There is almost nothing redeeming about this. And frankly ...if it snowed 6" of blue toilet cake snow on Friday, there is 0 d-drip value to that. I realize others don't share in this sentiment but ... there are some of us that do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 5 minutes ago, kdxken said: Huh that's strange no '70s and '80s? Boston 3.8 over for the month wish we didn't live here. 2012 - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Agree this overall sentiment. ...altho, I don't engage in the winter stuff in 'late summer' ( ha ) but yeah. By this time? I really start checking out every year around Feb 20th, actually - by that date we're already 10 days post the end of the solar nadir and into the solar transition season. One could argue that is really the first zygote of spring... Not March 1. Not March 21st. February 10, because that is the celestial mechanics-dictated date whence the hemisphere solar irradiance watts/sqr-m, inflects toward positive more steeply. The opposite is true on November 9th, whence the beginning of the solar minimum/bottom out takes place. That's why I like the rare front-loaded winter. Takes advantage of the igloo day-light when the snows are falling. Real gelid, not that transient stuff you have to think about it while its snowing on Feb 20, the models are tapping the 60 deg butt cervix the next week. Obviously there is a significant climate lag every year ( or at least used to be. Ha ). It takes time for the whole planetary system to respond to brightening(dimming) at either end. That's why I say I merely "start" to check out. lol. The total check-out process take about 2 to 3 weeks. By the 2nd week of March, I'm getting pretty indifferent ... Don't hate the late snow rareness. Don't love 'em. Post the equinox? I'm entering the spectrum of annoyed. I hate this weather right now. There is almost nothing redeeming about this. And frankly ...if it snowed 6" of blue toilet cake snow on Friday, there is 0 d-drip value to that. I realize others don't share in this sentiment but ... there are some of us that do. Yea, well....it takes me several weeks to compile data and garner insight in order to make the most well informed, garbage Outlook in the history of garbage Outlooks. As far as solar nadir snowfall....same page- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, well....it takes me several weeks to compile data and garner insight in order to make the most well informed, garbage Outlook in the history of garbage Outlooks. As far as solar nadir snowfall....same page- I wouldn’t be too hard on yourself…lots of pros got it wrong the last two years too. The atmosphere humbles everybody. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I wouldn’t be too hard on yourself…lots of pros got it wrong the hast two 20 years too. The atmosphere humbles everybody. well said 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I wouldn’t be too hard on yourself…lots of pros got it wrong the hast two years too. The atmosphere humbles everybody. I'm not losing sleep, dude.....but all you can do is either laugh about it, or be an ass and project said failure onto others. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 In my view, you need to satisfy two conditions to be taken seriously with respect to Outlooks... 1) Get it right from time to time and have well reasoned/ data-supported forecasts... 2) Maintain some modicum of humility and accept failure... In my experience, the most accurate forecasters don't necessarily meet these criteria, if you catch my drift. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: ...The only problem is the previous 20 consecutive days were above normal, a lot of which were large. The whole month is still +5.7 This is essentially the same at HFD. Yeah there was at least 1 +20 I think this March. When was the last 5 days in a row of BN? 2015? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: In my view, you need to satisfy two conditions to be taken seriously with respect to Outlooks... 1) Get it right from time to time and have well reasoned/ data-supported forecasts... 2) Maintain some modicum of humility and accept failure... In my experience, the most accurate forecasters don't necessarily meet these criteria, if you catch my drift. As to number one, I always find your forecasts well reasoned. Number two, A+ as far as I'm concerned. It's just a little "History Repeating" in the weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, well....it takes me several weeks to compile data and garner insight in order to make the most well informed, garbage Outlook in the history of garbage Outlooks. As far as solar nadir snowfall....same page- yeah, I don't offer criticisms, because I do not engage in the 'Game Of Seasonal Throwns' I only offer some thoughts ...circa mid Sep to mid Novies to others. Take it or leave it. Like I was saying in the La Nina thread the other day... I mentioned this the last 3 autumns to the general pop. I believe pretty strongly that the usefulness of the ENSO historic climate/inference method as primary in the construction of seasonal outlooks, is a mistake now. This is not a criticism of any particularly individual - because I am not sure who said what, or employed how much of it. I don't read these discussions, frankly. If someone reference something, I may read an excerpt amount.. but that's hardly a fair intake. However, seeing close to 500 -page El Nino threads ... mmm, sort of lends itself. I think there must be people that do lean on ENSO. I also believe that doing so was more useful prior to the naughts of 2000. It's like if there were a hypothetical 'usefulness graph,' it would be sloping downward. It's something I begin posting about over 15 years ago... probably prior to Eastern's collapse. I specifically recall supposition way, way back then ... writing words to the affect of, 'If the world around the tropics is heating up, the tropics are no longer able to force the same way' Usually when doing so, the sentiment was met with crickets. We're not exactly proffering scientific posits to a formal conference audience in this social media engagement, are we. LOL. Evidence is leaning toward vindication of those earlier insights. The incidences of uncoupling, transient lengths of time, notwithstanding, ...it's all part of that. Plus, the scalar impacts of these El Nino and La Ninas over the last 15 years have been less acute in statistics. anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ya the cold stretch knocked it down 3 degrees. It definitely felt worse than what the numbers show but still +7 for the month. Few days of 55-60 coming will probably finished working +8 for the month in CT at least. I'm kind of surprised 44/25 on 3/22 is only a -5. I feel like the reason it seems colder than it is are the mins. We just don't get as cold at night mostly because we always have cloud cover due to AN precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah, I don't offer criticisms, because I do not engage in the 'Game Of Seasonal Throwns' I only offer some thoughts ...circa mid Sep to mid Novies to others. Take it or leave it. Like I was saying in the La Nina thread the other day... I mentioned this the last 3 autumns to the general pop. I believe pretty strongly that the usefulness of the ENSO historic climate/inference method as primary in the construction of seasonal outlooks, is a mistake now. This is not a criticism of any particularly individual - because I am not sure who said what, or employed how much of it. I don't read these discussions, frankly. If someone reference something, I may read an excerpt amount.. but that 'shardly a fair intake. However, seeing close to 500 -page El Nino threads ... mmm, sort of lends itself. I think there must be people that do lean on ENSO. I also believe that doing so was more useful prior to the naughts of 2000. It's like if there were a hypothetical 'usefulness graph,' it would be sloping downward. It's something I begin posting about over 15 years ago... probably prior to Eastern's collapse. I specifically recall supposition way, way back then ... writing words to the affect of, 'If the world around the tropics is heating up, the tropics are no longer able to force the same way' Usually when doing so, the sentiment was met with crickets. We're not exactly proffering scientific posits to a formal conference audience in this social media engagement, are we. LOL. Evidence is leaning toward vindication of those earlier insights. The incidences of uncoupling, transient lengths of time, notwithstanding, ...it's all part of that. Plus, the scalar impacts of these El Nino and La Ninas over the last 15 years have been less acute in statistics. anyway Well, its a factor...like everything else. As a starting point, its common sense to first consider La Nina seasons if expecting a La Nina......but obviously these outlooks are getting more difficult becasuse there are an increasing number of forces at play as a result of CC. Its funny because on the one hand, its easier since 9/10 seasons are biased warm...but the catch is that its getting more difficult to get the rationale for the warmth right within the context of a given season, aside from the background CC trend. For instance, most of predicted warmth simply because of a canonical strong El Nino were not right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Yeah there was at least 1 +20 I think this March. When was the last 5 days in a row of BN? 2015? November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 13 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: I'm kind of surprised 44/25 on 3/22 is only a -5. I feel like the reason it seems colder than it is are the mins. We just don't get as cold at night mostly because we always have cloud cover due to AN precip. Nope. -5 across the board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 35 minutes ago, dendrite said: Nope. -5 across the board. You're a bird guy right? Just heard a racket coming from a pine Grove near where I was cutting. The goldfinch are back in town. Lots of them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 5 minutes ago, kdxken said: You're a bird guy right? Just heard a racket coming from a pine Grove near where I was cutting. The goldfinch are back in town. Lots of them... I like my birds. I’ve had goldfinches all winter, but they’ve been nuts the past few days with the snow. Ditto that with the juncos, pine siskins, and bluebirds. They’re wiping out an entire feeder of sunflower chips daily. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 1 hour ago, kdxken said: You're a bird guy right? Just heard a racket coming from a pine Grove near where I was cutting. The goldfinch are back in town. Lots of them... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 1 hour ago, dendrite said: I like my birds. I’ve had goldfinches all winter, but they’ve been nuts the past few days with the snow. Ditto that with the juncos, pine siskins, and bluebirds. They’re wiping out an entire feeder of sunflower chips daily. Probably just angry. They were promised 70s and '80s and it's 20s and 30s and spitting snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm an amateur...which implicitly makes learning my primary motive for doing this. You can't learn from errors unless you own and accept them....only cheating myself if I don't. Heard this many years ago: What's the secret of business success? Right decisions. How does one learn to make right decisions? Experience. How does one get experience? Wrong decisions. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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