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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You can try to tell em till they blue in face and balls .. they call snow and cold till bitter end 

So is this the week it's actually going to hit 70? You've been promising for weeks on weeks.

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2 hours ago, bwt3650 said:


No upper mountain lifts on tramside…nw over 30 usually takes out the Bonnie too…maybe jet? Could also take the metro and hike up lower river quai to hit some lower mountain glades off goat. Tuesday will be the day.


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The woods are going to be loaded! 

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19 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You got like 5 inches in NH on 3/9 after a 10 day weenie fest and that’s a big storm?  Just because it’s bigger than other systems this season doesn’t mean it didn’t under perform.

Never said it was a big storm for me, only the biggest since (insert date here). I'm asking about model performance, not the "performance" of the weather system itself. 

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1 hour ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Meh, this recent system had fairly robust support on guidance 10-11 days ago and people were groaning and grumbling about posts alluding to the possibility of a storm then. 10 days later, I ended up with my biggest snowfall since Jan 10th and more snow than the entirety of Feb combined. Much of NNE cashed (and will continue to cash) in as well.

Not going to deny that this winter has been anything but a regionwide ratter, but I guess I'm not sure what evidence there is to dismiss all modeling. Are model performance metrics currently indicating poorer than normal performance this winter?

I'm genuinely asking, as I have no idea. 

It was pretty isolated to township scales while neighboring had far less.  It was not really regional scope - it was elevation dependent and/or relegate to N.  I don't think anyone cogent or objective would have argued "10 days ago" that an elevation oriented storm would be out of the question.

Also, that's not really a fair characterization the way you put that because those solutions 10 days ago had heavy snow event down here - that's more closely what was mocked, for a few reasons...all of which actually verified.

By the way, the CFS and Euro are doing it again ... we'll perform the same test. 

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For the MJO crew ...  your phasing over the next 10 days could not be more in diametrical correlation failure to the -EPO burst being presently agreed upon by the same models ( all of them...) that also have an MJO coverage.   Hint, long words for wrong

Priceless -

The inability to couple anything is becoming so common ...I'm like, don't bother with NINO and MJO and AMOs and PDOs...

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51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It was pretty isolated to township scales while neighboring had far less.  It was not really regional scope - it was elevation dependent and/or relegate to N.  I don't think anyone cogent or objective would have argued "10 days ago" that an elevation oriented storm would be out of the question.

Also, that's not really a fair characterization the way you put that because those solutions 10 days ago had heavy snow event down here - that's more closely what was mocked, for a few reasons...all of which actually verified.

By the way, the CFS and Euro are doing it again ... we'll perform the same test. 

Glancing back at the forum 10 days ago, I'll concede that I unfairly characterized the discussion. Valid and reasonable concerns were put forth by many - unfortunately, the less valid ones are what lodged better in my memory.

That aside, I'm still curious if model performance as a whole has actually been lacking this winter season. My (by no means groundbreaking) suspicion is that there would be less criticism of their performance if they also threw in a few instances where they called for little and it snowed a lot rather than just hiccup the other way round. 

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s nothing arctic, but there likely will be a period of below normal. That also may coincide with some sort of late season event. I think that’s all people are saying, and that’s not outrageous at all.

It’s very tough for some to comprehend this when they’re dead set on pushing their delusions. 

 

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3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

A few snow showers here this evening. The late week torch at least looks enjoyable.  

Yeah what wtf? Thought I would enjoy a nice fire pit and it's starting to rain. Was this forecast? Entirely possible just asking.

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3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Yeah what wtf? Thought I would enjoy a nice fire pit and it's starting to rain. Was this forecast? Entirely possible just asking.

I have a bone to pick with the national weather service. Southborough is not on the coast.

"NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

7PM Update

Light showers have popped up on the south coast in response to the base of the upper level trough."

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50 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Just arrived at Jay. Heavy snow and windy currently. Every time I make this drive from western Maine I’m left thinking, what a snow hole Littleton NH is. Glad we don’t live there 

The wind is going to be a problem tomorrow.  Snows falling sideways up at Stowe.  And the flow isn’t even that strong.  It really ramps up tomorrow.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The wind is going to be a problem tomorrow.  Snows falling sideways up at Stowe.  And the flow isn’t even that strong.  It really ramps up tomorrow.

For sure. We’re prepared with skins and are here through Tuesday. Just nice to be back in winter: cold, windy, snowy, yore 

 

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2 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

For sure. We’re prepared with skins and are here through Tuesday. Just nice to be back in winter: cold, windy, snowy, yore 

 

Yeah I’m with ya. Some folks are going to get disappointed tomorrow but most seem to understand the ski areas want to run the lifts for customers.  If they can they will and if they say they can’t, it’s not due to laziness :lol:.

Let it dump and blow all tomorrow then enjoy it Tuesday.

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Yeah I’m with ya. Some folks are going to get disappointed tomorrow but most seem to understand the ski areas want to run the lifts for customers.  If they can they will and if they say they can’t, it’s not due to laziness :lol:.
Let it dump and blow all tomorrow then enjoy it Tuesday.

At least it’ll be windy at all elevations. People at jay go nuts when the freezer is on hold and it’s just breezy at the base. They have no idea it’s gusting to 60 at tower 16.


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21 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:


At least it’ll be windy at all elevations. People at jay go nuts when the freezer is on hold and it’s just breezy at the base. They have no idea it’s gusting to 60 at tower 16.

Yeah, we've got the Haychute on the Quad and Tower 23 on the Gondola as exposed problem areas.  Going over the Haychute the view is amazing to the north, one of the best in all of ski country IMO.  Looking right at Mansfield and the Notch... but that exposure to any wind out of the north means the gusts just rock the chair and hit the line perpendicular.  It seems like that's what happens on the upper Flyer spans too at Jay.  The tram, forget about it in any escalated flow.  That thing is in the free air.

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