March 2024 disco/obs

[Damage In Tolland]

Next week Tuesday on looks torched . 60’s at least for a few days 

[kdxken]

  On 3/8/2024 at 10:02 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Next week Tuesday on looks torched . 60’s at least for a few days 

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CPC says what torch.

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 3/8/2024 at 10:04 PM, kdxken said:

CPC says what torch.

 

 

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8-14 days? Lol. That’s the period some in here are calling for cold and snow 

[kdxken]

  On 3/8/2024 at 10:05 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

8-14 days? Lol. That’s the period some in here are calling for cold and snow 

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Coldest spring ever.

"Euro 12z  AI going wild March 18-23 with major eastern storm and one of the coldest opening to spring outbreaks into the east on record."

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1766205589527330861?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[kdxken]

And just like that next week goes in the shitter

"Good model agreement on dry weather Mon and Tue, but blustery and
chilly NW flow across the region. Not as windy or cold Tue vs Mon.
Wed could be the pick of the week with ridge advecting across the
area, with highs 55-60 and light winds. Obviously cooler along/near
the coast given SSTs in the 40s. Maybe unsettled Thu/Fri with risk
for showers, but mild."

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 3/8/2024 at 10:05 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

8-14 days? Lol. That’s the period some in here are calling for cold and snow 

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These maps have always been pretty conservative ( IMO ). So what it's showing for us is actually somewhat encouraging for the possible colder weather coming in. Time will tell

[weathafella]

  On 3/8/2024 at 1:10 PM, MJO812 said:

It's too early for that crap

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Interesting down here in Florida local’s are saying this is mid April wx. I suspect we’re going to roast July/August.

[MJO812]

  On 3/8/2024 at 11:54 PM, weathafella said:

Interesting down here in Florida local’s are saying this is mid April wx. I suspect we’re going to roast July/August.

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Definitely with the upcoming LA Nina.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/8/2024 at 10:00 PM, MJO812 said:

I'm coming

My weenie is still out

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[Damage In Tolland]

  On 3/8/2024 at 11:54 PM, weathafella said:

Interesting down here in Florida local’s are saying this is mid April wx. I suspect we’re going to roast July/August.

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All the LR guys have a super humid summer forecast .. and stormy 

[Torch Tiger]

  On 3/8/2024 at 10:10 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1766205589527330861?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

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that looks like something you'd see April 15th

[Sled]

  On 3/8/2024 at 10:07 PM, kdxken said:

Coldest spring ever.

"Euro 12z  AI going wild March 18-23 with major eastern storm and one of the coldest opening to spring outbreaks into the east on record."

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Is AI going to make forecasts better or worse?

[kdxken]

  On 3/9/2024 at 1:14 AM, Sled said:

Is AI going to make forecasts better or worse?

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Guess we'll find out.

[Typhoon Tip]

Pretty high likelihood that all you are seeing isnt all that uncommon in any given Euro run …if you were allowed to see it beyond 240 hrs. 

[MJO812]

18z AI

[powderfreak]

  On 3/9/2024 at 12:56 AM, Torch Tiger said:

that looks like something you'd see April 15th

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That’s generally what it feels like, mid-April.  Snowpack is like it is a couple weeks before closing… not 5 weeks.

All we need is some good frozen QPF and normal temperatures and things will last.  But can’t keep running back +10 departures.

We are +14.1 through the first week of the month.  It’s just wild departures continuing since the end of November.

[qg_omega]

Looks like 8 to 12 inches or more for the mountains Saturday night into Sunday

[powderfreak]

  On 3/9/2024 at 2:57 AM, qg_omega said:

Looks like 8 to 12 inches or more for the mountains Saturday night into Sunday

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Southeast Adirondacks getting the upslope cooling from forced parcel ascent in the marginal & lowest few thousand vertical feet.  Same with eastern VT hills and Spine during the SE flow phase.

It’s like the tide coming in on SE flow, then the tide going out on NW flow. Some zones do better on each specific flow/tide, others can hit on both.  Thats the forecasting challenge.

[qg_omega]

  On 3/9/2024 at 3:03 AM, powderfreak said:

Southeast Adirondacks getting the upslope cooling from forced parcel ascent in the marginal & lowest few thousand vertical feet.  Same with eastern VT hills and Spine during the SE flow phase.

It’s like the tide coming in on SE flow, then the tide going out on NW flow. Some zones do better on each specific flow/tide, others can hit on both.  Thats the forecasting challenge.

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Agreed, Gore will do well on the front and greens will clean up on the back

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/9/2024 at 2:49 AM, powderfreak said:

That’s generally what it feels like, mid-April.  Snowpack is like it is a couple weeks before closing… not 5 weeks.

All we need is some good frozen QPF and normal temperatures and things will last.  But can’t keep running back +10 departures.

We are +14.1 through the first week of the month.  It’s just wild departures continuing since the end of November.

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Gross but change is coming. 

[powderfreak]

  On 3/9/2024 at 3:31 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gross but change is coming. 

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Elevation event coming in based on positive slow depth maps. They are the new snow maps.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

  On 3/9/2024 at 4:05 AM, powderfreak said:

Elevation event coming in based on positive slow depth maps. They are the new snow maps.

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Wow, that's impressive. The pos. depth change maps are usually (caveat, not always!) fairly conservative too. Still - way more applicable in this situation/evolution than the 10 to 1.

[powderfreak]

  On 3/9/2024 at 4:10 AM, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Wow, that's impressive. The pos. depth change maps are usually (caveat, not always!) fairly conservative too. Still - way more applicable in this situation/evolution than the 10 to 1.

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This is a 1,500-2,000ft event for big totals.

The QPF is there.  If this winter had even been +2 to +4 (instead of +8 to +10), it might have been an incredibly snowy winter up north.  There have been so many events that have been a couple degrees away from big numbers.

00z GFS if only we had a cold airmass and 10:1 ratios to the valley floors.  Disappointing winter.  This is what could have been.

  

[DownpourDave]

  On 3/9/2024 at 4:23 AM, powderfreak said:

This is a 1,500-2,000ft event for big totals.

The QPF is there.  If this winter had even been +2 to +4 (instead of +8 to +10), it might have been an incredibly snowy winter up north.  There have been so many events that have been a couple degrees away from big numbers.

00z GFS if only we had a cold airmass and 10:1 ratios to the valley floors.  Disappointing winter.  This is what could have been.

  

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Most of the snow will be occurring at night so that will help with accumulations. 
 

This is probably a more realistic map.

 

 

 

 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

00z HREF mean. Seems like the NWS likes these for snow maps.

[mreaves]

  On 3/9/2024 at 4:33 AM, SnowLover22 said:

Most of the snow will be occurring at night so that will help with accumulations. 
 

This is probably a more realistic map.

 

 

 

 

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I have a hard time seeing RUT getting a foot. 

[Modfan2]

Took the driveway markers out yesterday, hopefully I didn’t Ginx myself for a late season storm

[dendrite]

  On 3/9/2024 at 5:31 AM, mreaves said:

I have a hard time seeing RUT getting a foot. 

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Probably some resolution issues there with the gfs.

3k nam shows the elevation differences better

[#NoPoles]

Curious how it plays out where I live. The past elevation events- half I got accumulating snow, and half I got white rain. I really have no idea how this unfolds. All those maps being posted snow a jackpot right over my area, but do I have enough elevation to get accumulation?